This won't be brief. Sorry.
I was looking back at a thread ("Trump 2024!") that TDS-sufferer mcmurtry (relax, murt - - just joking) started over a year and a half ago. I predicted then that Trump would be the 2024 GOP nominee, but I couldn't have been more wrong about Biden. I didn't think he'd run for reelection and I anticipated a crowded and competitive Democrat field.
Part of me thinks that someone of influence in the Democrat party needs to have a "Come to Jesus" talk with Jill who, in turn, needs to have a "Come to Jill" talk with Joe and convince him not to seek reelection. The question becomes, though, is it too late? The deadline has already passed in some states for primary filings, and I believe that the deadline will have passed in 14 states by Dec 31. And the launch of any campaign takes time and money. Election Day 2024 is just 12 month away.
A second option is that Biden waits until the Democratic convention in August, drops the bomb that he's changed his mind, and throws his support to someone else. I read last night that, under Dem Party rules, pledged delegates aren't required to vote for the candidate they represent, but rather must "reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." If Biden said in so many words, "You're my delegates but I'm dropping out and endorsing [fill in the blank]," that endorsement would be hugely influential.
But who would he endorse? How does he NOT endorse Harris, and she's less popular than he is? Then again, there's some precedent for a president turning his back on his VP (and I'm not talking about Trump, who did more than turn his back on Pence in Jan 2021). While Biden says he didn't run in 2016 because of his son Beau's death and, indeed, that could have been a factor, there was reliable reporting that Obama saw Clinton as the heir apparent and encouraged Biden to step aside. Finally, there's another consideration with respect to Harris. if Biden failed to support her as his successor, it could be perceived as a slap in the face to the black voters who were instrumental in his win in 2020. The issue becomes moot, though, if Harris were to announce she's not seeking the nomination.
If Biden were to announce at the Convention that he has decided not to move forward, fails to endorse a successor, and no candidate wins the first ballot, then a brokered convention would be the result and chaos could very well follow. A fractured party is the last thing the Dems would want with little time remaining before the general election.
The Dems are in a really tough spot. I never thought I'd be saying this, and it's kind of surreal to think this is a possibilty for a guy with a lengthy rap sheet, but Trump could win.
I was looking back at a thread ("Trump 2024!") that TDS-sufferer mcmurtry (relax, murt - - just joking) started over a year and a half ago. I predicted then that Trump would be the 2024 GOP nominee, but I couldn't have been more wrong about Biden. I didn't think he'd run for reelection and I anticipated a crowded and competitive Democrat field.
Part of me thinks that someone of influence in the Democrat party needs to have a "Come to Jesus" talk with Jill who, in turn, needs to have a "Come to Jill" talk with Joe and convince him not to seek reelection. The question becomes, though, is it too late? The deadline has already passed in some states for primary filings, and I believe that the deadline will have passed in 14 states by Dec 31. And the launch of any campaign takes time and money. Election Day 2024 is just 12 month away.
A second option is that Biden waits until the Democratic convention in August, drops the bomb that he's changed his mind, and throws his support to someone else. I read last night that, under Dem Party rules, pledged delegates aren't required to vote for the candidate they represent, but rather must "reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." If Biden said in so many words, "You're my delegates but I'm dropping out and endorsing [fill in the blank]," that endorsement would be hugely influential.
But who would he endorse? How does he NOT endorse Harris, and she's less popular than he is? Then again, there's some precedent for a president turning his back on his VP (and I'm not talking about Trump, who did more than turn his back on Pence in Jan 2021). While Biden says he didn't run in 2016 because of his son Beau's death and, indeed, that could have been a factor, there was reliable reporting that Obama saw Clinton as the heir apparent and encouraged Biden to step aside. Finally, there's another consideration with respect to Harris. if Biden failed to support her as his successor, it could be perceived as a slap in the face to the black voters who were instrumental in his win in 2020. The issue becomes moot, though, if Harris were to announce she's not seeking the nomination.
If Biden were to announce at the Convention that he has decided not to move forward, fails to endorse a successor, and no candidate wins the first ballot, then a brokered convention would be the result and chaos could very well follow. A fractured party is the last thing the Dems would want with little time remaining before the general election.
The Dems are in a really tough spot. I never thought I'd be saying this, and it's kind of surreal to think this is a possibilty for a guy with a lengthy rap sheet, but Trump could win.
