Trump Party
- Thread starter IUNorth
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538's polling average had the GOP winning the vote nationwide by 4 points, which was spot on.
Interesting thread, but people are looking at this through the wrong glasses. The Trump spectacles that so many still wear are scratched and distort one’s vision.
Trump won’t even be around in 2024, not in the sense that he’ll not be around physically, but in the “influence sense.” (The physical thing could still be there, as it is with Biden.) Health, legal issues and/or some lucrative, non-government economic opportunity will pull him away. President of LIV Golf? A billion from the Saudis and all the publicity he loves/craves? Just one possible stopping point.
The fix is in for DeSantis, with Glenn Youngkin as the understudy, but not the VP. That will be Nikki Haley.
Trump will hog the spotlight over the next 12-18 months. But DeSantis will build and consolidate support and his allure to both the populist and the country club sets. Populists will be happy with a strong response to crime, controlling the border, strengthening our economy, eliminating the educational madness and reducing the corrosiveness of inflation. The “Romney wing” will enjoy strong economic policy, a strong military, refunding/appreciating our police force and normalizing our taxing and regulatory system. The evangelicals will come to terms with states setting abortion access positions which, while they may not be happy with, they will see exposes the evil of the left and the ultimate position of abortion on demand that the left covets.
The consolidating factor will be that there will be much more coming together over the goal - defeating the harm and nuttiness of the left. The huge contributing part of this is just letting the Bidens, Warrens, Sanders and deranged leftist mayors and governors continue on their destructive trend. The populists/Trumpists will see Trump doing his thing, and they will love him spearing the media and the wokesters, but they will gently pass on him to achieve the ultimate goal.
Meanwhile, DeSantis will be doing everything to prepare to be successful. A lot will be behind the scenes, so watch him subtly expose Biden, Harris, Pete, Newsome and all of the other pretenders.
Election denial, death of Democracy and Trump won’t be issues. The failures of the left will be. The Dem candidate will have a lot going against him/her. It will be one of those Sun Tzu things - When your opponent is making a mistake stand aside and let him have at it.
The bottom line - You can back Trump, love Trump and gently push him aside for the guy who can put it in the end zone. It’s going to be a tough two years for the Dems.
I'm not sure what that has to do with Trump ripping off Herschel Walker voters, but OK.
They had 203 lean D or better, 219 lean R or better, and 13 toss-ups, with a slight majority of the toss-ups barely favoring the D. That's going to end up pretty darn close to what happens.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
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Just a nit: nationwide numbers are irrelevant.
Which candidate wins will be irrelevant in places that are solid red or blue; which ones can win the purple/swing states is what matters.
You present a plausible scenario. But did you catch Trump's announcement? I didn't, but saw some highlights. That was not a typical Trump speech. Much of the bombast was gone and he stated actual policy goals.
I think Trump may be changing his presentation, if not his message. It may be more difficult for Desantis to run effectively against this Trump than the 2020 Trump.
Desantis is the flavor of the month with the wind at his back right now. But wait until the media starts digging into him - he'll be the devil by Primary time in 2024.
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anon_6hv78pr714xta
Guest
Well hell, anyone could say 13 toss-ups - that's a huge total in the final tally.
I don't want to hear "lean". I want predictions, and the polls were not accurate, no matter how you spin it.
Polls don't make predictions. They tell you what the range of likely outcomes is within a 95% level of confidence. It's too early to say for sure, but right now, it looks like it was a pretty solid year for most pollsters.
I'll bookmark this to go along with every other absurdly wrong prediction you've posted over the years.
Respectfully disagree. Trump's negatives are baked in at this point. It doesn't matter if his diehards are ride or die and are maybe significant within the party, there are not enough of them to actually win a national election. I believe this because he lost to a zombie in 2020 and in the areas where the next election is likely to turn, he was an anchor in 2022.
Backing Trump now is signing up for another 4 years of Democrat rule for his vanity project. I agree with Winsome Sears, the movement is more important than the leader. Thanks to Trump for doing some of the stuff he did but he isn't the answer in 24 because of all the negatives he brings.
Compared to Trump? He will look like the reincarnation of Christ.
There's not a lot of polling done (at least public polls) when it comes to House races.
Were the Senate race polls outside the MOE?
And this is the key. There is not a single persuadable voter out there on Trump one way or the other. There is no one he can win over, and perhaps only those he can lose at this point, although his support has been very durable.
The negatives that he brings is the machine that was designed to beat him.
I'm ok with giving him him his retirement with dignity, but he opened our eyes, and the machine was designed on Clinton's and Pelosi's ownership (of which was longer than most of our lives) of the FBI and the DOJ.
DC slime creatures support DC slime creatures.
The sooner Pelosi is in an Urn, the better. That's just one step though. ANd they have you all so hoodwinked. I've never had less respect for humanity.
No, you have to be honest with yourself. Trump is his own worst enemy because at heart he is an unapologetic narcissist. Rolling into the election last week and he is attacking Younkin and DeSantis. Why? Did they do anything to cross him? No, they were a perceived threat to steal his spotlight. There is a swamp in Washington, no doubt and he may have exposed some of it. However, he was a complete and utter failure at addressing it.
If he was brought down by that swamp, why do you believe he would be the person to tackle that again? He tried and failed. His continued presence further empowers those same "swampy" folks because his brand is toxic in all of the areas where the national pendulum is swinging at the moment.
Trump exposed some of the swamp and then Fauci held his head in it until he drowned in it. And while drowning he has been pulling everyone down with him. He needs cut loose for the benefit of the movement, holding on out of spite doesn't win elections.
Simple Human Nature. Trump knows he is "past prime", and will take the final hit to himself, to expose more of the swamp.
He has nothing to personally gain from any of this, even in 2016!
his Kids don't have anything $$ to gain that they would ever need.
Trump has seen into the belly of the beast, as an outsider and (as he promised) would spend his life to drain the swamp.
He's been allowed to grab all of the pussies he could ever want to. If you have $$ or power.. guess what, they actually do let you do that for those reasons. Convince me differently! Is it "right"??? not for me to judge, but Women will let men/ women/ lizards/ snakes/ politicians/ lgbtqastfdinsgt's grab them anywhere, if they may get 15 seconds of fame. To claim otherwise is ... I don't think I have the word to describe the level of elementary.
Almost all of this is correct. But I disagree with the flavor-of-the-month part. He’ll definitely be slimed incessantly by the media. No question about that. They have no honor and no honesty.
But he’s stronger than FOTM.
I hear you, but I think if Desantis runs, it'll be 4 more years of Democrat rule anyway.
Should be interesting.
You seem to assume that he could be convinced to go away of his own volition, either by circumstances or by determining he could "do better" by doing so. I think that's a mistaken assumption. I think he'll try and burn it all down before he would step back. We've been through that once with him already.
He is not going to beat donny. But if he did then yes. Ronny would beat Joey. Lol.
Ross Perot was the closest thing we've had in modern times to what you are describing. Lots of differences as well, I'll grant you, but the result would be the same, methinks.
There really isn't much of anything that I can disagree with you here. Not much at all!
The very few differences are "he was an utter failure as addressing it". .... Do you realize the competence of the opponent? It's the ENTIRE power of the US DC machine and the 100 million minion that have already been brainwashed. Just how easy do you think that machine is going to be to "address", considering you're are trying to free some of those 100 million from their mental in slavery? They WANT to vote for more free ....
"If he was brought down by the swamp", He know's he's going to die before any of this is effective (democracy takes a long time), what does he have to lose? Nothing to win except starting some shit (narcissit, which EVERY FVCKING PERSON posting here is on the Narcissit spectrum! EVERY ONE! )
As far as Narcissist, we recently had a "sticky" thread entitled with the persons name who started the sticky thread, just to remind everyone that he was the one who started and owned it... NARCISSIST to the highest power, according to the rules here... in the Democratic socialist states of merica.
If Harris is the top of the ticket the Dems are screwed. I don't know who I think it should be, but I'm convinced she's not the one.
Until money is separated from the state there is always going to be a “swamp”. Too much power to be had. The entire point of Bitcoin is to drain the swamp, by the way, peacefully. Trump is not needed and is just another iteration of the swamp.
Only if Harris is the incumbent going into 2024. And, whether she is or isn’t, she would be poison for the Dems. Not only would the GOP win the electoral college but the popular vote as well.
I strongly urge the Dems to put her on the ticket.
Did you see SNL and Chappelle's monologue? HIs pseudo-exchange between Trump and Hilary/Obama was spot on.
Trump knew what a swamp it is because HE TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE TAX CODE HIMSELF and said he knew it wouldn't change because the insiders were getting rich off it. He also knew all the players because they were all asking him for money previous to 2016 (Dave didn't say that, but I added it).
I know, and acknowledge, every one of Trump's faults. But I think the man, wittingly or unwittingly, is almost single-handedly saving the Republic from itself by exposing the absolute criminal and traitorous behavior of DC politicians.
Whether Trump wins or loses is immaterial to me - I think he's going to go balls-to-the-wall in exposing DC for what it is during the campaign, and I welcome it.
For f#ck sake it has nothing to do with the price and I don’t give a sh#t. The notion that people like me buy it to make money shows your misunderstanding of what it is.
If Biden slow walks his decision to run, it paralyzes all other potential candidates-except Harris. If Biden thinks she’s been loyal and wants her to be the nominee if he doesn’t run, she has a huge advantage because Biden can hand over his political organization and operation as an incumbent, overnight.
Easy, man. I don't care about digital currency. I think it's a scam, but if you want to push it, it's OK with me.
I'll maybe buy Bitcoin when I don't have to convert it to dollars or other currencies to buy anything.
I was talking about FTX - it's going to sink digital currencies even more.
The assumption here is that Biden’s “organization“ can tolerate Harris, which might be a stretch. Hell, Jill might torpedo her.
Revenge is a dish served cold.
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