Projecting Trump Victory

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I didn't want to be accused of hyperbole. But I completely agree...

You guys are reinventing history. Trump's win wasn't that statistically out of the ordinary. It was shocking to people who think gut instincts are more important than numbers, but that's it. A better analogy would be that he completed his set on the river. Not expected, but not exactly rare, either.

 

[zeke4ahs]

The Dems have been saying for a year that if Trump wins they will challenge and that they will simply not accept defeat no matter what. But that if Trump challenges in any way it is not acceptable. You can't have it both ways (unless you have no first principles).

Can you link that please? Particularly interested in Biden saying any such thing.

 

[UncleMark]

That metaphor is wrong. Trump drew an inside royal flush.

I didn't want to be accused of hyperbole. But I completely agree...

I actually looked up some poker hand odds a while back to see where Trumps 30% 2016 chance fell. Closest was to an inside straight. Now, if he's at 10%, he will need to draw to a much harder hand.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nancy Pelosi - July - Trump will be 'fumigated out' if he refuses to leave White House

Hillary Clinton - August - Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances

The Atlantic - September - The Democrats May Not Be Able to Concede if Trump Wins

Literally none of those links back up your baseless claim.

 

[outside shooter]

Ah yes, the objective and "fair" left

View embedded media

Threatening to file frivolous and baseless lawsuits

and

promising to always defend voting rights through vigorous defense against frivolous and baseless lawsuits

should NEVER be judged as equal stances. They just aren't. Show me quotes or video of Biden or Harris discussing plans for initiating legal challenges to the validity of votes.

 

[daddyhoosier]

Literally none of those links back up your baseless claim.

The first two are as close as they are going to come without actually saying it. It's called reading between the lines. And The Atlantic, which is more elite than the New York Times, does come out and say it. The popular vote doesn't decide things presently.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Threatening to file frivolous and baseless lawsuits

and

promising to always defend voting rights through vigorous defense against frivolous and baseless lawsuits

should NEVER be judged as equal stances. They just aren't. Show me quotes or video of Biden or Harris discussing plans for initiating legal challenges to the validity of votes.

He's making a statement as to who is going to lose and he has control over that process. That's as partisan as it gets.

 

[Harry Hondo]

Nancy Pelosi - July - Trump will be 'fumigated out' if he refuses to leave White House

Hillary Clinton - August - Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances

The Atlantic - September - The Democrats May Not Be Able to Concede if Trump Wins

Okay, the first article has Biden winning and tossing the bum out, if he refused to leave the WH (which I hope most Americans would support, regardless of the party the loser belongs to), so your point is moot. The second article is an opinion by a former politician who is referring to the 2000 election, where there was a virtual tie. I seriously doubt that would happen again in any state, especially the state that could decide the outcome. And the third article is an opinion piece by an Atlantic writer. Again, did Biden or Harris make these comments or endorse any of these views?

Looks to me like your initial post is exactly what I thought, hyperbole and hearsay, based on opinions not facts.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

You guys are reinventing history. Trump's win wasn't that statistically out of the ordinary. It was shocking to people who think gut instincts are more important than numbers, but that's it. A better analogy would be that he completed his set on the river. Not expected, but not exactly rare, either.

My favorite, 538 had his chances the same as Ichiro getting a hit.

 

[hoosboot]

Bulk knows I was kidding. You are an idiot. Not kidding.

Whew! You gave a very convincing performance. I was concerned about you for the first two posts! 😂

 

[Harry Hondo]

This is very Barr of him

Really? I think Barr was appointed by Trump to be the AG and Shapiro was elected by the people of Pennsylvania. Big difference. Shapiro is just trying to protect the citizens (that put him in office) from someone trying to steal the election. Good for him!

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

A lot of people, including ZH, have been forecasting economic collapse for a long time. The fact that they have been doing so for so long and it hasn't happened is a fair critique. One I've had myself. I don't consider Mises to be crackpot and I choose them over Keynes.

Overall I believe ZH is right on the fundamentals but I do think that the ability for the Fed to keep things afloat through their modern day alchemy has been greatly underestimated.

The World Economic Forum says quite openly that they want a great reset next year and I don't see how you get there without imploding the U.S. Economy first.

A fair critique? That's like me predicting the White Sox will win another World Series and when they win one in 2045, I get to claim I'm someone with insight and that others should pay attention to.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Whew! You gave a very convincing performance. I was concerned about you for the first two posts! 😂

Picking on bulk I was kidding. That said I definitely enjoy posts like the OP. Always entertaining

 

[daddyhoosier]

Alright everyone, thank you for hearing me out. We shall see what happens. God bless!

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

The first two are as close as they are going to come without actually saying it. It's called reading between the lines. And The Atlantic, which is more elite than the New York Times, does come out and say it. The popular vote doesn't decide things presently.

So you lied.

 

[daddyhoosier]

Oh, just out of curiosity, how many of you are IU Alums?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Alright everyone, thank you for hearing me out. We shall see what happens. God bless!

 

[outside shooter]

Oh, just out of curiosity, how many of you are IU Alums?

IU for 4 years of grad school, Ph.D. in chemistry

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Oh, just out of curiosity, how many of you are IU Alums?

I attended IU, but I remain silent on whether or not I was able to graduate with a degree

 

[cosmickid]

The Dems have been saying for a year that if Trump wins they will challenge and that they will simply not accept defeat no matter what. But that if Trump challenges in any way it is not acceptable. You can't have it both ways (unless you have no first principles).

John Ziegler wrote a very good article yesterday on why he believes some of Trump's most ardent supporters (mistakenly) believe that he is not only going to win,but win by a landslide. It's true that Ziegler is a Conservative Never Trumper, but that also allows him to have the ability to look into the mindset of fellow conservatives and see why they believe this is 2016 all over again. And more importantly, point out the reality they are failing to grasp...

Btw, this is a piece from the same publication (Mediaite) as your original link. So while I didn't think your link (about something described as a joke) was particularly relevant to my post about deliberately creating and spreading propaganda, I do thank you for (unintentionally) making me aware of this pretty insightful analysis...

"Many of those who have closely followed my career in talk radio, documentary films, and column-writing turned out to be strong Trump supporters, and they have been extremely disappointed, even angered, by my unwillingness to jump on the Trump train. It probably didn’t help that it appears I helped popularize the #Cult45 hashtag to describe the Trump fanatics who seem to view him more as a religious cult leader than as a politician.

This rather painful set of circumstances has perhaps provided me with a rather unique perspective on those who inhabit MAGA World. Consequently, I may have some insight into why strong Trump supporters are SO convinced that he is going to win this presidential election.

This column is about why Trump super-fans are positive that I, like the rest of those in the “conventional wisdom” (for which I usually have extreme distrust) are totally wrong, just like we were in 2016.

Here are the top ten explanations…

This is 2016 All Over Again:
However, this time there is no Hillary Clinton, no James Comey, no independent voters curious about what Trump might be like as president, and no Democratic complacency.
Polls Are Meaningless:
To be clear, the polling error this time around would have to be worse than it was in 2016 for Trump to repeat his improbable win, despite the entire survey industry being acutely aware of the mistakes made in the last cycle.

Mainstream News Media Coverage Has No Impact:
COVID vs Hunter Biden

Trump’s Crowds Prove His Turnout Will Win It:
To the Trump fan, this means that there is tons of enthusiasm for Trump, and none for Biden. However, Trump fans refuse to acknowledge that the average Biden supporter is motivated primarily by voting AGAINST Trump, which is why Democrats did so well in the 2018 midterm elections. " (Lots of evidence that Trump rallies in purple states (MI, WI and PA) in 2018 actually HURT GOP Candidates...)

"Trump Is Magic: (see this one a lot, imho...)
His upset wins in the 2016 GOP primary and general elections (though they conveniently ignore the massive 2018 midterm defeat), along with his sound defeat of the Russian investigation and his impeachment, have imbued his biggest fans in an unshakable faith that Trump will somehow find a way out of any predicament, no matter how precarious.

There Will Be a Backlash Against the Lockdowns:

The Alpha Male Always Wins:

America Will Never Go Socialist:

God Is On His Side:
One of the great ironies of Trump is that a man who clearly does not believe in God has such devotion from people who are convinced that God is on his side.

Biden’s Strategy Reeks of Concern:
Actually, Biden has been playing offense for the last month or so. The only state I remember Biden even visiting within the past month that HRC won is a couple of trips to Minnesota. The fact that the battle is being fought primarily in states that Trump won in 2016 tells you all you need to know about who is leading the day before election day...

10 Reasons Trump Fans Are Convinced He Is Going to Win, and Why They Are Likely Mistaken

As an ardent conservative who has opposed Donald Trump from the start of his presidential run, my relationship with Trump fans has, to say the least, been… complicated. Many of those who have closely

www.mediaite.com

 

[UncleMark]

Oh, just out of curiosity, how many of you are IU Alums?

Damn near all of us attended, and most graduated. One Purdue grad and one bible college grad.

 

[Standard Issue]

A fair critique? That's like me predicting the White Sox will win another World Series and when they win one in 2045, I get to claim I'm someone with insight and that others should pay attention to.

Eventually they have to be right, right?

 

[cosmickid]

You guys are reinventing history. Trump's win wasn't that statistically out of the ordinary. It was shocking to people who think gut instincts are more important than numbers, but that's it. A better analogy would be that he completed his set on the river. Not expected, but not exactly rare, either.

Forgive my ignorance. Despite living 3 yrs in Las Vegas and a year or so being Art Schlichter's personal onsite bookie/runner while he was busy leading Detroit to the Arena League title, my knowledge of poker terminology/strategy is fairly limited...

 

[Morrison]

Oh, just out of curiosity, how many of you are IU Alums?

Thanks for the insight Randy. Hope you and Channel are doing well.

 

[daddyhoosier]

I've seen enough to know when a message is being sent or an idea is being floated. It's admittedly a slippery slope when you start getting into intent but I'm not just throwing darts here. If President Trump wins the Electoral College and the Democrats don't let it go I will consider my interpretation correct. And again this is what The Atlantic suggested.

 

[stollcpa]

Way too show up for work still. You are such a trooper.

I am not going to riot, loot or cry. Lol

edit I fixed the “or” thanks @hoosboot

I also need to add I won’t scream at the sky. I am almost sure the woman screaming at the sky in 2016 is a member of this forum. 😂

 

[twenty02]

Oh, just out of curiosity, how many of you are IU Alums?

I would say almost every frequent poster is, other than possibly @Lucy01 . But she's the chief of her trailer park's Board of Governors and provides insightful on-the-ground feedback.

 

[stollcpa]

We all know who is ready to
1) bring in the lawyers to attack every vote, after the fact
2) call on his armed thugs to mobilize

There may well be a war (God, I hope not) but if so it will be the people vs. the brainwashed right wing goon squad.

We will certainly find out either way tomorrow night.

 

[hoosboot]

I am not going to riot, loot and cry. Lol

"or" would have been a better choice if you want to be convincing.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

I would say almost every frequent poster is, other than possibly @Lucy01 . But she's the chief of her trailer park's Board of Governors and provides insightful on-the-ground feedback.

Pretty certain that Meridian dude couldn't even graduate from Ivy Tech

Also Noodle is a Purdoo guy

 

[daddyhoosier]

We will certainly find out either way tomorrow night.

That would be nice but I think we'll go to bed Tuesday night / Wednesday morning with several states still being counted.

Okay I'm really going now. Don't miss me too much 😂

 

[twenty02]

We will certainly find out either way tomorrow night.

We'll know tomorrow night either 1) it's over with a Biden win (say by winning FL or some other sun belt states) or 2) if it's going to drag on for days/ weeks.

Don't see how it's possible for Trump to have a victory tomorrow night, as there isn't much of a path for him without PA, which won't have a viable count until end of the week.

 

[outside shooter]

That would be nice but I think we'll go to bed Tuesday night / Wednesday morning with several states still being counted.

Every state in every presidential election is always still counting votes the next day.

It is just that most often they know how many they haven't counted yet and it amounts to <1% of the vote in absentee ballots. This year in some places it will be that times 20. I don't know why some states can't get started early on certifying votes and even scanning them. Those are votes already cast, so what's the big deal?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Every state in every presidential election is always still counting votes the next day.

It is just that most often they know how many they haven't counted yet and it amounts to <1% of the vote in absentee ballots. This year in some places it will be that times 20. I don't know why some states can't get started early on certifying votes and even scanning them. Those are votes already cast, so what's the big deal?

It's all down to how the laws are written. Some states do count absentee votes early. Some states (like Pennsylvania) are not allowed to even open ballots until the polls open Tuesday.

 

[daddyhoosier]

Every state in every presidential election is always still counting votes the next day.

It is just that most often they know how many they haven't counted yet and it amounts to <1% of the vote in absentee ballots. This year in some places it will be that times 20. I don't know why some states can't get started early on certifying votes and even scanning them. Those are votes already cast, so what's the big deal?

The point which I failed to articulate clearly is that it will still most likely be up in the air on Wednesday morning.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

It's all down to how the laws are written. Some states do count absentee votes early. Some states (like Pennsylvania) are not allowed to even open ballots until the polls open Tuesday.

States have the right to have totally asinine election laws and most avail themselves to that right as much as possible.

 

[T.M.P.]

The first two are as close as they are going to come without actually saying it. It's called reading between the lines.

Reading between the lines, you're a troll ..

 

[Circlejoe]

Reading between the lines, you're a troll ..

I'm amazed people engaged.

 

[Lucy01]

I would say almost every frequent poster is, other than possibly @Lucy01 . But she's the chief of her trailer park's Board of Governors and provides insightful on-the-ground feedback.

🤔 Huh

 

[outside shooter]

@Lucy01 . But she's the chief of her trailer park's Board of Governors and provides insightful on-the-ground feedback.

She's the assistant to the assistant general manager. Double emphasis on "ass".