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Projecting Trump Victory

daddyhoosier

Junior
Aug 31, 2019
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iufb.net
I don't normally post here and frankly don't plan to do so. The following is not based on what I want to be true but on what I believe to be true.

ZeroHedge looked at recent Polling Numbers in every State and then adjusted them by how far they were off in 2016. If history repeats - and I see no indication that any effort has been made to correct anything - then they project President Trump winning 279-259. (For those who don't know ZH is more libertarian - classical liberalism's kissing cousin - than conservative.)

Vegas, internal polls, momentum, minority trends, internet searches, oversampling Democrats & other metrics almost all point to a Trump win. Dare I say a comfortable Trump win. But of course Democrats who watch the mainstream media who got it wrong last time have all been told Biden is way ahead and they will be very, very hacked off if and when their collective bubble bursts again. This is very concerning because all civility has been lost and the two false left-right paradigm sides stopped communicating with each other years ago.

To be honest I'm holding my breath because I'm not sure the Republic can avert a major major crisis between tomorrow and the inauguration.

From deep research (again rooted in trying to find out what actually happened versus following the confirmation bias path of least resistance - looking for that which confirms what I already want / believe to be true - I assert that it is almost certain that Trump won the popular vote last time around, despite what the officially reported numbers say. This will rile people up but the truth is Hillary, after openly stealing the nomination from Bernie (even Democrats admit this), stole as many as five states in the General Election but still managed to lose. (One of the main ladies who reported this buried information is a life-long Democrat who just happens to have some intellectual integrity.)

Biden's problem is that when you lose an election by more than 10 points it becomes incredibly obvious if you try to steal it. It would take a lot of balls to try and and claim victory tomorrow (and in the coming week or two) but the DNC has shown in recent years that absolutely nothing is off limits for them.

Disclaimer: I've been immersed in the political 'dark arts' for 15 years. I have a track record of calling out both sides and irritating everybody. Strictly speaking I consider myself and independent. But I'm sure people will try to pigeon whole me because it reduces the cognitive dissonance. I'm not trying to be unkind, that's just what inevitably happens.
 
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I don't normally post here and frankly don't plan to do so. The following is not based on what I want to be true but on what I believe to be true.

ZeroHedge looked at recent Polling Numbers in every State and then adjusted them by how far they were off in 2016. If history repeats - and I see no indication that any effort has been made to correct anything - then they project President Trump winning 279-259. (For those who don't know ZH is more libertarian - classical liberalism's kissing cousin - than conservative.)

Vegas, internal polls, momentum, minority trends, internet searches, oversampling Democrats & other metrics almost all point to a Trump win. Dare I say a comfortable Trump win. But of course Democrats who watch the mainstream media who got it wrong last time have all been told Biden is way ahead and they will be very, very hacked off if and when their collective bubble bursts again. This is very concerning because all civility has been lost and the two false left-right paradigm sides stopped communicating with each other years ago.

To be honest I'm holding my breath because I'm not sure the Republic can avert a major major crisis between tomorrow and the inauguration.

From deep research (again rooted in trying to find out what actually happened verses following the confirmation bias path of least resistance - looking for that which confirms what I already want / believe to be true - I assert that it is almost certain that Trump won the popular vote last time around, despite what the officially reported numbers say. This will rile people up but the truth is Hillary, after openly stealing the nomination from Bernie (even Democrats admit this), stole as many as five states in the General Election but still managed to lose. (One of the main ladies who reported this buried information is a life-long Democrat who just happens to have some intellectual integrity.)

Biden's problem is that when you lose an election by more than 10 points it becomes incredibly obvious if you try to steal it. It would take a lot of balls to try and and claim victory tomorrow (and in the coming week or two) but the DNC has shown in recent years that absolutely nothing is off limits for them.

Disclaimer: I've been immersed in the political 'dark arts' for 15 years. I have a track record of calling out both sides and irritating everybody. Strictly speaking I consider myself and independent. But I'm sure people will try to pigeon whole me because it reduces the cognitive dissonance. I'm not trying to be unkind, that's just what inevitably happens.

Most libertarians vote R, not D.

The Times tracks the polls and has a chart "if today's polls are as wrong as 2016". If they are, Biden wins MI, WI, PA, AZ, and FL. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/p...the-good-polling-for-trump-is-still-quite-bad

The polls that show Trump winning, one came out yesterday, work on the theory that turnout will match 2016. That is certainly possible. Democratic turnout in 2016 was not good. If that happens again, Trump wins.

The question is, will Democrats stay home in 20. If they do, Trump wins and Trafalgar and those pollsters look like geniuses.
 
I don't normally post here and frankly don't plan to do so. The following is not based on what I want to be true but on what I believe to be true.

ZeroHedge looked at recent Polling Numbers in every State and then adjusted them by how far they were off in 2016. If history repeats - and I see no indication that any effort has been made to correct anything - then they project President Trump winning 279-259. (For those who don't know ZH is more libertarian - classical liberalism's kissing cousin - than conservative.)

Vegas, internal polls, momentum, minority trends, internet searches, oversampling Democrats & other metrics almost all point to a Trump win. Dare I say a comfortable Trump win. But of course Democrats who watch the mainstream media who got it wrong last time have all been told Biden is way ahead and they will be very, very hacked off if and when their collective bubble bursts again. This is very concerning because all civility has been lost and the two false left-right paradigm sides stopped communicating with each other years ago.

To be honest I'm holding my breath because I'm not sure the Republic can avert a major major crisis between tomorrow and the inauguration.

From deep research (again rooted in trying to find out what actually happened verses following the confirmation bias path of least resistance - looking for that which confirms what I already want / believe to be true - I assert that it is almost certain that Trump won the popular vote last time around, despite what the officially reported numbers say. This will rile people up but the truth is Hillary, after openly stealing the nomination from Bernie (even Democrats admit this), stole as many as five states in the General Election but still managed to lose. (One of the main ladies who reported this buried information is a life-long Democrat who just happens to have some intellectual integrity.)

Biden's problem is that when you lose an election by more than 10 points it becomes incredibly obvious if you try to steal it. It would take a lot of balls to try and and claim victory tomorrow (and in the coming week or two) but the DNC has shown in recent years that absolutely nothing is off limits for them.

Disclaimer: I've been immersed in the political 'dark arts' for 15 years. I have a track record of calling out both sides and irritating everybody. Strictly speaking I consider myself and independent. But I'm sure people will try to pigeon whole me because it reduces the cognitive dissonance. I'm not trying to be unkind, that's just what inevitably happens.
thank you for taking the time to post. anyone on here that pigeonhole's you is a fool and should be summarily discarded. "immersed in the political 'dark' arts." yesssssssssssssssss. post often and more.
 
Biden's problem is that when you lose an election by more than 10 points it becomes incredibly obvious if you try to steal it. It would take a lot of balls to try and and claim victory tomorrow (and in the coming week or two) but the DNC has shown in recent years that absolutely nothing is off limits for them.
Are you saying you think there's a good chance Trump wins this by more than 10 points?
 
Were you calling me an idiot, or is that the answer to the question? 🤯
Or, both?
calling you an idiot! why would he explain to you the darks arts so that you can do just what he fears: pigeonhole him. we're finally going to get the bottom of things - find out the truth behind these crazy polls
 
Most libertarians vote R, not D.

The Times tracks the polls and has a chart "if today's polls are as wrong as 2016". If they are, Biden wins MI, WI, PA, AZ, and FL. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/p...the-good-polling-for-trump-is-still-quite-bad

The polls that show Trump winning, one came out yesterday, work on the theory that turnout will match 2016. That is certainly possible. Democratic turnout in 2016 was not good. If that happens again, Trump wins.

The question is, will Democrats stay home in 20. If they do, Trump wins and Trafalgar and those pollsters look like geniuses.

With so many people who've already voted, the cake's baked at this point that Biden's going to get 70+ million votes, maybe 75-80 million nationally, compared to 65 million for Clinton.

Trump needs a lot of people who sat at home in 2016 to come out and get from 63 million to 70+ million to have a shot I think
 
I don't normally post here and frankly don't plan to do so. The following is not based on what I want to be true but on what I believe to be true.

ZeroHedge looked at recent Polling Numbers in every State and then adjusted them by how far they were off in 2016. If history repeats - and I see no indication that any effort has been made to correct anything - then they project President Trump winning 279-259. (For those who don't know ZH is more libertarian - classical liberalism's kissing cousin - than conservative.)

Vegas, internal polls, momentum, minority trends, internet searches, oversampling Democrats & other metrics almost all point to a Trump win. Dare I say a comfortable Trump win. But of course Democrats who watch the mainstream media who got it wrong last time have all been told Biden is way ahead and they will be very, very hacked off if and when their collective bubble bursts again. This is very concerning because all civility has been lost and the two false left-right paradigm sides stopped communicating with each other years ago.

To be honest I'm holding my breath because I'm not sure the Republic can avert a major major crisis between tomorrow and the inauguration.

From deep research (again rooted in trying to find out what actually happened verses following the confirmation bias path of least resistance - looking for that which confirms what I already want / believe to be true - I assert that it is almost certain that Trump won the popular vote last time around, despite what the officially reported numbers say. This will rile people up but the truth is Hillary, after openly stealing the nomination from Bernie (even Democrats admit this), stole as many as five states in the General Election but still managed to lose. (One of the main ladies who reported this buried information is a life-long Democrat who just happens to have some intellectual integrity.)

Biden's problem is that when you lose an election by more than 10 points it becomes incredibly obvious if you try to steal it. It would take a lot of balls to try and and claim victory tomorrow (and in the coming week or two) but the DNC has shown in recent years that absolutely nothing is off limits for them.

Disclaimer: I've been immersed in the political 'dark arts' for 15 years. I have a track record of calling out both sides and irritating everybody. Strictly speaking I consider myself and independent. But I'm sure people will try to pigeon whole me because it reduces the cognitive dissonance. I'm not trying to be unkind, that's just what inevitably happens.
Please come back after the election so we can discuss your prognostication.
 
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With so many people who've already voted, the cake's baked at this point that Biden's going to get 70+ million votes, maybe 75-80 million nationally, compared to 65 million for Clinton.

Trump needs a lot of people who sat at home in 2016 to come out and get from 63 million to 70+ million to have a shot I think

It appears that the early vote is strongly anti trump. Trumpsters, who don't trust mail in ballots, want to vote in person...so will they? Will many be discouraged by lines? rain? cold?

Many Anti trump votes are in...pro trump votes still have to get in.

Take away the 2016 "deplorables" gaffe and bake in the C19 catastrophe...I just don't see how trump wins. He lost many independents and moderates. He lost suburban and educated women. He toast. Splotchy orange toast.
 
With so many people who've already voted, the cake's baked at this point that Biden's going to get 70+ million votes, maybe 75-80 million nationally, compared to 65 million for Clinton.

Trump needs a lot of people who sat at home in 2016 to come out and get from 63 million to 70+ million to have a shot I think
Numbers don't jibe though. We now know Trump won the popular vote. You're going to have to do better.
 
I don't normally post here and frankly don't plan to do so. The following is not based on what I want to be true but on what I believe to be true.

ZeroHedge looked at recent Polling Numbers in every State and then adjusted them by how far they were off in 2016. If history repeats - and I see no indication that any effort has been made to correct anything - then they project President Trump winning 279-259. (For those who don't know ZH is more libertarian - classical liberalism's kissing cousin - than conservative.)

Vegas, internal polls, momentum, minority trends, internet searches, oversampling Democrats & other metrics almost all point to a Trump win. Dare I say a comfortable Trump win. But of course Democrats who watch the mainstream media who got it wrong last time have all been told Biden is way ahead and they will be very, very hacked off if and when their collective bubble bursts again. This is very concerning because all civility has been lost and the two false left-right paradigm sides stopped communicating with each other years ago.

To be honest I'm holding my breath because I'm not sure the Republic can avert a major major crisis between tomorrow and the inauguration.

From deep research (again rooted in trying to find out what actually happened verses following the confirmation bias path of least resistance - looking for that which confirms what I already want / believe to be true - I assert that it is almost certain that Trump won the popular vote last time around, despite what the officially reported numbers say. This will rile people up but the truth is Hillary, after openly stealing the nomination from Bernie (even Democrats admit this), stole as many as five states in the General Election but still managed to lose. (One of the main ladies who reported this buried information is a life-long Democrat who just happens to have some intellectual integrity.)

Biden's problem is that when you lose an election by more than 10 points it becomes incredibly obvious if you try to steal it. It would take a lot of balls to try and and claim victory tomorrow (and in the coming week or two) but the DNC has shown in recent years that absolutely nothing is off limits for them.

Disclaimer: I've been immersed in the political 'dark arts' for 15 years. I have a track record of calling out both sides and irritating everybody. Strictly speaking I consider myself and independent. But I'm sure people will try to pigeon whole me because it reduces the cognitive dissonance. I'm not trying to be unkind, that's just what inevitably happens.
I should have stopped at ZeroHedge when I had the chance. Mondays are tough enough without a load of cRaZy first thing in the morning.
 
calling you an idiot! why would he explain to you the darks arts so that you can do just what he fears: pigeonhole him. we're finally going to get the bottom of things - find out the truth behind these crazy polls

I'm not sure "pigeonholing" him would be the proper avian nomenclature. I'm thinking more along the lines of:

tenor.gif
 
What exactly does this mean?

Thank you for asking. Well first and foremost I don't mean that I approve of such practices. In fact I have a visceral revulsion to said 'dark arts' but not liking them doesn't mean they don't exist.

In a nutshell I would say this. Probably the essence of Sun Tzu's Art of War is that all warfare is based on deception. Politics, especially in the 21st century, is information warfare and the philosophies of high level political warfare are no different.

This means to find out what the truth is we have to get beyond the surface level for-public-consumption narratives pushed by the corporate media, political establishment and 101 level Political Science classes. To do this we have to understand the guiding philosophies and cosmologies that drive the direction the powers that be are trying to take us in - Humanism, Post-Modernism, Progressivism, Technocracy and yes Globalism - being predominant among them.

It's also true that history has been written by the winners. So you have to go back and try and figure out what actually happened versus what we are told happened. If you don't understand occult-based secret societies that go all the way back to ancient Sumer you are going to miss a huge piece of the puzzle.

Once we understand these philosophies, cosmologies and what the real goals are we can look at the landscape of politics, economics and spirituality and begin to see what is really going on.
 
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Thank you for asking. Well first and foremost I don't mean that I approve of such practices. In fact I have a visceral revulsion to said 'dark arts' but not liking them doesn't mean they don't exist.

In a nutshell I would say this. Probably the essence of Sun Tzu's Art of War is that all warfare is based on deception. Politics, especially in the 21st century, is information warfare and the philosophies of high level political warfare are no different.

This means to find out what the truth is we have to get beyond the surface level for-public-consumption narratives pushed by the corporate media, political establishment and 101 level Political Science classes. To do this we have to understand the guiding philosophies and cosmologies that drive the direction the powers that be are trying to take us in - Humanism, Post-Modernism, Progressivism, Technocracy and yes Globalism - being predominant among them.

It's also true that history has been written by the winners. So you have to go back and try and figure out what actually happened verses what we are told happened. If you don't understand occult-based secret societies that go all the way back to ancient Sumer you are going to miss a huge piece of the puzzle.

Once we understand these philosophies, cosmologies and what the real goals are we can look at the landscape of politics, economics and spirituality and begin to see what is really going on.
Thank you for the "NUTshell" explanation.

For future reference, it's "versus", not "verses". My gift to you.
 
Are you saying you think there's a good chance Trump wins this by more than 10 points?
Yes in reality but not by the official numbers.

What will stop him from asserting that Trump won no matter what the official numbers are?

That's a fair question. If you believe there is no possibility that the official numbers could be wrong then there is no need to have a discussion.
 
With so many people who've already voted, the cake's baked at this point that Biden's going to get 70+ million votes, maybe 75-80 million nationally, compared to 65 million for Clinton.

Trump needs a lot of people who sat at home in 2016 to come out and get from 63 million to 70+ million to have a shot I think

Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's popularity in each state since inauguration day 2017. They nailed the 2018 situation perfectly, showing how he had lost 10 points or more in each of MI, PA, and WI- and on election night all 3 states went solid Blue in every statewide race...



 
Morning Consult has been tracking Trump's popularity in each state since inauguration day 2017. They nailed the 2018 situation perfectly, showing how he had lost 10 points or more in each of MI, PA, and WI- and on election night all 3 states went solid Blue in every statewide race...




Something else to keep in mind... NONE of the states that HRC lost in 2016 showed her with a 50% or > lead going into election day. Late-breaking Undecideds and 3rd parties were a Huge reason Trump drew his inside straight on election day 2016. That will not be occurring this year, esp with all those banked votes...
 
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Will state TV, i.e. Fox News, try to support POTUS in "calling" states for him that are by no means settled? That could really pour gas onto the fire.
 
Will state TV, i.e. Fox News, try to support POTUS in "calling" states for him that are by no means settled? That could really pour gas onto the fire.

OANN might. Fox News' Decision Desk/polling has been pretty good/non-partisan in the past, so it'd be a big blow to their credibility.

You might see Hannity out there claiming stuff though and getting corrected.
 
Will state TV, i.e. Fox News, try to support POTUS in "calling" states for him that are by no means settled? That could really pour gas onto the fire.

I hate FoxNews overall. And also I called Florida last time literally 4 hours before Fox did because it was super obvious. Trump was up by more votes than there were projected left to come in but nobody would do it. It was super ridiculous.
 

Dude you just posted a FAKE video that is making news due to the amount of stupid people who believed it. I wouldn't think you'd want to be putting your gullibility on display at this point in time...

"It's an awkward moment when a presidential candidate greets the audience at a rally and names the wrong state.

Fortunately for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, that didn't happen to him this week, despite a widely shared video that appears to show him saying “Hello, Minnesota” to a crowd in Florida.

It turns out he was, indeed, in Minnesota. The video that was shared had been altered to change the text on a sign and the podium to refer to Tampa, Florida, instead of Minnesota.

What you need to know about this edited video and the falsehoods spreading around it:

CLAIM: Video shows Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden mistakenly saying “Hello, Minnesota” at a campaign event in Tampa, Florida.

AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. The sign behind Biden in this video has been edited to add the words “Tampa, Florida” and remove the words “TEXT MN to 30330.” The podium has also been edited to add “FL” instead of “MN.” Original video from this event confirms that Biden was in Minnesota and addressed the correct state in his greeting."
 
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Dude you just posted a FAKE video that is making news due to the amount of stupid people who believed it. I wouldn't think you'd want to be putting your gullibility on display at this point in time...

"It's an awkward moment when a presidential candidate greets the audience at a rally and names the wrong state.

Fortunately for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, that didn't happen to him this week, despite a widely shared video that appears to show him saying “Hello, Minnesota” to a crowd in Florida.

It turns out he was, indeed, in Minnesota. The video that was shared had been altered to change the text on a sign and the podium to refer to Tampa, Florida, instead of Minnesota.

What you need to know about this edited video and the falsehoods spreading around it:

CLAIM: Video shows Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden mistakenly saying “Hello, Minnesota” at a campaign event in Tampa, Florida.

AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. The sign behind Biden in this video has been edited to add the words “Tampa, Florida” and remove the words “TEXT MN to 30330.” The podium has also been edited to add “FL” instead of “MN.” Original video from this event confirms that Biden was in Minnesota and addressed the correct state in his greeting."
At least he's not an MSNBC host or a Contributing Editor at Politico:
 
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