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Has Trump Finally Screwed the Pooch?

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Jul 6, 2015
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In recent polling Trump has had a net loss of 9% of support from whites without college education, his strongest base in 2016.

Among this group, only 45% said they approved of the job Trump is doing as President, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. That is the lowest level of support among this subgroup by 1 percentage point in CNN's surveys and a dip from a poll conducted in early December, before the partial shutdown, when 54% of whites without college degrees approved of his job as President and 39% disapproved.

The dip is notable since among whites who hold college degrees, Trump's ratings are largely unchanged in the last month and remain sharply negative -- 64% disapprove and 32% approve.

This trend is backed up by a new Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday. Approval for the President remained somewhat stable between its mid-December poll and now among whites without college degrees (down from 56% to 53%), but disapproval increased from 37% to 43%. That is going from a net 19% positive approval to a net 10% for Trump, a 9-point loss.

In 2016, two-thirds of whites without college degrees voted for Trump and 29% voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're one of the President's strongest groups of supporters. The GOP support held true in the two most recent midterm elections, in 2014, when 64% of whites with no college degrees supported Republican candidates, and in 2018, when 61% did the same.​

If the Democrats run someone like Sherrod Brown, I don't see Trump winning those guys back. Contrary to popular liberal belief, they're not dumb. They know that Trump didn't just screw the pooch.
 
In recent polling Trump has had a net loss of 9% of support from whites without college education, his strongest base in 2016.

Among this group, only 45% said they approved of the job Trump is doing as President, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. That is the lowest level of support among this subgroup by 1 percentage point in CNN's surveys and a dip from a poll conducted in early December, before the partial shutdown, when 54% of whites without college degrees approved of his job as President and 39% disapproved.

The dip is notable since among whites who hold college degrees, Trump's ratings are largely unchanged in the last month and remain sharply negative -- 64% disapprove and 32% approve.

This trend is backed up by a new Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday. Approval for the President remained somewhat stable between its mid-December poll and now among whites without college degrees (down from 56% to 53%), but disapproval increased from 37% to 43%. That is going from a net 19% positive approval to a net 10% for Trump, a 9-point loss.

In 2016, two-thirds of whites without college degrees voted for Trump and 29% voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're one of the President's strongest groups of supporters. The GOP support held true in the two most recent midterm elections, in 2014, when 64% of whites with no college degrees supported Republican candidates, and in 2018, when 61% did the same.​

If the Democrats run someone like Sherrod Brown, I don't see Trump winning those guys back. Contrary to popular liberal belief, they're not dumb. They know that Trump didn't just screw the pooch.

I won't comment on this specific poll. I don't think you can write Trump off yet. He is not far off from Regan + Clinton, and was nearly matching Obama recently. His overall approval is not far off from eday. Factor in the electoral college, and nothing is impossible. I think 3rd party candidates is another important factor.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
 
I won't comment on this specific poll. I don't think you can write Trump off yet. He is not far off from Regan + Clinton, and was nearly matching Obama recently. His overall approval is not far off from eday. Factor in the electoral college, and nothing is impossible. I think 3rd party candidates is another important factor.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Agree. Trump's unique approach, albeit reprehensible, of keeping a diehard base/cult can work even though its anti-democracy and un-American. Getting rid of the anachronistic electoral system is the future.
 
Agree. Trump's unique approach, albeit reprehensible, of keeping a diehard base/cult can work even though its anti-democracy and un-American. Getting rid of the anachronistic electoral system is the future.

Probably the biggest factor is turnout. Low turnout and Trump's coalition can be enough.
 
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Probably the biggest factor is turnout. Low turnout and Trump's coalition can be enough.
Any indicators there will be a low turnout? Trump's killing the economic growth with his trade wars. What indicators will be in his favor. I get your point but Trump's going to get crushed against someone like Sherrod Brown, who makes a sensible, agreeable offer of Trump's same populist policies without Trump's juvenile, criminal, and destructive behavior.

If Trump makes it to the election, he's a one off. Gonzo. Finito. Kurac. Durak. Dreck. Nic.
 
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