Never mind. I was just going to tell you it was supposed to be nice before I got your point!Too bad we couldn’t have today’s weather on Tuesday...
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Never mind. I was just going to tell you it was supposed to be nice before I got your point!Too bad we couldn’t have today’s weather on Tuesday...
I'm seeing 62F and sunny on my weather widget for Bton.
He got you. Because Trump voters are all saying they are voting Election Day..... at least I think. It’s windy and cold here today.I'm seeing 62F and sunny on my weather widget for Bton.
He got you. Because Trump voters are all saying they are voting Election Day..... at least I think. It’s windy and cold here today.
A slew of Pennsylvania polls today. Mostly more of the same for Biden. Emerson has him up 5, Siena and Ipsos have him up 6, and ABC/WaPo has him up 7. The one outlier is InsiderAdvantage. Like Trafalgar a couple of days ago, they have Trump +1.
The weight of all these pro-Biden polls has Biden at +4.8 in the 538 average, but it's possible that these pollsters all clustering together are all off in the same direction for the same reasons, and if their error is no bigger or smaller than Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage, then Biden's lead in PA right now might really be more like 2 or 3 points.
Either way, it's looking very possible that PA - a state likely to be one of the very slowest to report results - will end up being High Noon.
Almost always? See 2000 and 2004.I think we're going have a pretty good idea Tuesday night. PA and MI almost always go in the same direction as FL. Therefore, if Trump wins FL by lets say 2 points and I believe he won it by 1.5 in 2016 then odds are good that he gained a half point or so in PA and MI as well. Now if he wins FL by say .5 to 1.5 then yeah it could be 2000 all over again.
All the polls don’t appear to give him much of a shot in MI.I think we're going have a pretty good idea Tuesday night. PA and MI almost always go in the same direction as FL. Therefore, if Trump wins FL by lets say 2 points and I believe he won it by 1.5 in 2016 then odds are good that he gained a half point or so in PA and MI as well. Now if he wins FL by say .5 to 1.5 then yeah it could be 2000 all over again.
I don't think I buy that. Yeah, a lot of states tend to move in the same direction, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hell, in 2016, Hawaii moved in the same direction as Florida. A lot of that has more to do with the national picture than correlation between states.I think we're going have a pretty good idea Tuesday night. PA and MI almost always go in the same direction as FL. Therefore, if Trump wins FL by lets say 2 points and I believe he won it by 1.5 in 2016 then odds are good that he gained a half point or so in PA and MI as well. Now if he wins FL by say .5 to 1.5 then yeah it could be 2000 all over again.
He's talking about partisan shifts from one election to the next, rather than who wins.Almost always? See 2000 and 2004.
Ahhh - thanks.He's talking about partisan shifts from one election to the next, rather than who wins.
There are roughly 4x more old goats in fla than CubansI don't think I buy that. Yeah, a lot of states tend to move in the same direction, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hell, in 2016, Hawaii moved in the same direction as Florida. A lot of that has more to do with the national picture than correlation between states.
That said, some states do correlate more than others, and you're right that Florida correlates more strongly with the Midwest than it does with neighboring southern states, so there is that. However, I would add an extra caution this year: Major shifts in support in Florida this year appear to be among Hispanics (for Trump) and seniors (for Biden), demos that are uniquely important to Florida. How those two shifts shake out together might not tell us a whole lot about Michigan or Pennsylvania.
I don't think I buy that. Yeah, a lot of states tend to move in the same direction, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hell, in 2016, Hawaii moved in the same direction as Florida. A lot of that has more to do with the national picture than correlation between states.
That said, some states do correlate more than others, and you're right that Florida correlates more strongly with the Midwest than it does with neighboring southern states, so there is that. However, I would add an extra caution this year: Major shifts in support in Florida this year appear to be among Hispanics (for Trump) and seniors (for Biden), demos that are uniquely important to Florida. How those two shifts shake out together might not tell us a whole lot about Michigan or Pennsylvania.
And vice versa.I'm just making an educated guess that if Trump takes FL by any decent margin at all he takes PA as wellespeciallyno matter Biden's fracking gaffe.
Depending whether your proposed 2024 Republicans are more like Lincoln or Willkie or are more like Lindsay Graham, Gingrich, McConnell or Rand Paul, I might be on board with that.Best case for Republicans is a Dem sweep. Then 2024 will be a red wave....
Back to where it all began.... John C. Fremont.Depending whether your proposed 2024 Republicans are more like Lincoln or Willkie or are more like Lindsay Graham, Gingrich, McConnell or Rand Paul, I might be on board with that.
There are 4 million old people in fla. you know a bunch are pissed at trump and the governor of CovidRasmussen has Trump going down in FL. That's not good news for Trump. Not good at all.
Florida Final Poll: Biden 51% Trump 47%
The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida.politicaliq.com
Very different issues at play in the 2 states, though. Besides, Black turnout will decide PA.I'm just making an educated guess that if Trump takes FL by any decent margin at all he takes PA as well especially with Biden's fracking gaffe.
The coat should have been a dead giveaway.Damn. Apparently you CAN make this shit up and you fell for it.
Do you enjoy being played for a fool?
A slew of Pennsylvania polls today. Mostly more of the same for Biden. Emerson has him up 5, Siena and Ipsos have him up 6, and ABC/WaPo has him up 7. The one outlier is InsiderAdvantage. Like Trafalgar a couple of days ago, they have Trump +1.
The weight of all these pro-Biden polls has Biden at +4.8 in the 538 average, but it's possible that these pollsters all clustering together are all off in the same direction for the same reasons, and if their error is no bigger or smaller than Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage, then Biden's lead in PA right now might really be more like 2 or 3 points.
Either way, it's looking very possible that PA - a state likely to be one of the very slowest to report results - will end up being High Noon.
yes, yes he does.Do you enjoy being played for a fool?
I mean, c'mon. A national poll of 1,500 people purports to predict the results in particular states? Not a single state would have had a big enough sample to do that with anything even remotely approaching accuracy. They also fall into the trap of other pollsters of trying to measure the "shy Trump voter" effect that might not even exist.Democracy Institute Poll: Electoral College Landslide for Donald Trump - The Jewish Voice
President Donald Trump is poised to win re-election in an Electoral College landslide, according to a poll released on Sunday. The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic...thejewishvoice.com
The above piece is predicting a Trump landslide. (BTW, I do not buy that). But there are several polling organizations giving Trump more than a fighting chance. Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, Susquehanna, Rasmussen, as well as the link above. The amount of disparity of these polls is shocking, and at this point I don't know what to think. If I were to bet $100, I bet on Biden, but I don't think it is a lock.
There are 4 million old people in fla. you know a bunch are pissed at trump and the governor of Covid
GRRRRR! The media!!!!Yeah regarding old folks DeSantis should've done exactly what Cuomo, Murphy, Newsom, etc did. It's amazing that it was only Democrat governors who killed a bunch of healthy seniors in nursing homes yet the media is giving Trump and DeSantis the blame.
Wasserman is far left never Trumper hack. Trump is down around 95k votes in FL right? And there's probably over a 1 million plus left on election day and it's assumed 75% or so going Trump.
No Party Affiliation | 1,854,160 | 21.3 |
By the way. It was just reported by Fox news that this was fake.
If only Biden could get a photo op with Lil Wayne...
Interesting perspective. I disagree with you, but I see where you're coming from. Dole is a great comparable for Biden. Not an inspiring guy...just a really decent, honorable, and thoughtful legislator. Dole's problem is that he wasn't right for the time he was running in. If he was running today, he'd be a great option to restore some dignity and calm to the office. I'd be thrilled with a Bob Dole nomination at this point after four years of DT.
If only Biden could get a photo op with Lil Wayne...
What is it with which you disagree? Biden's legislative accomplishments? Congressional candidates not as good as governors in leading?
TIA for the discussion. I am not looking to argue, but am looking for more details about your disagreements.
Oh wow that’s a really powerful one. Have to say they missed the boat by not having the whole Dunder Mifflin team do an ad for them.This aired during the OSU/PSU game last night. Effective for exactly the reasons Trump and Rudy went to such great lengths to attack Biden and trump up the fake Ukraine scandal, at a time most polls showed Biden trailing behind the other Dem contenders in the summer of 2019...
He gambling, nothing to lose, knows he wins big if Trump does, loses small if he loses.yes, yes he does.
Gaffes are one thing. Long, ridiculous BS quotes which make NO SENSE are anoter:
Super-Spreader event...Trump supposedly had 60k at his rally in PA last night. Wow.