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LOTS of people HATE Trump....very few hate Joe (cept some Trump fanatics for no real reasons)...Lots of people love Trump. Nobody loves Joe.
Me, too....tho I think NC has a really good chance to go blue because Jim Clyburn lives next door and people in NC will remember him being emotional the day he endorsed Joe and turned the whole thing around....PA is going to give me an ulcer. I have major anxiety about Trump pulling an upset there, which could unravel the whole thing.
Well, the polls were wrong in three states in 2016 that mattered....in Wis, HC won ALL the polls for the last 6 months and was ahead by 6 points in the poll averages on election day....and yet Trump jumped 6 points and won...Do you intentionally disregard the known and reputable pollsters? It’s like you are really searching for a source to tell you what you want to hear instead of how things are actually going.
It was not 6 in any of them, thought it was over 5 in Wisconsin and under 5 in the other two. But the Times is tracking those states if the polls were off as much as 2016. And while the polls in 16 underestimated Trump in 16, they underestimated Obama in 12 by about the same. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-bidenWell, the polls were wrong in three states in 2016 that mattered....in Wis, HC won ALL the polls for the last 6 months and was ahead by 6 points in the poll averages on election day....and yet Trump jumped 6 points and won...
(I personally think the Russki IT guys in St Petersburg changed the vote totals on election night....and we're assured that can't happen again, but...) 🤷♂️
Trump doesn’t need to win MN, he needs it to be close so he and the republican run courts can pull their f***ery.
Polling DataIt was not 6 in any of them, thought it was over 5 in Wisconsin and under 5 in the other two. But the Times is tracking those states if the polls were off as much as 2016. And while the polls in 16 underestimated Trump in 16, they underestimated Obama in 12 by about the same. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden
Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Clinton (D) | Trump (R) | Johnson (L) | Stein (G) | Spread |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Results | -- | -- | -- | 46.5 | 47.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | Trump +0.7 |
RCP Average | 10/26 - 11/2 | -- | -- | 46.8 | 40.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | Clinton +6.5 |
Remington Research (R)* | 11/1 - 11/2 | 2720 LV | 1.9 | 49 | 41 | 3 | -- | Clinton +8 |
Loras | 10/31 - 11/1 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 44 | 38 | 7 | 2 | Clinton +6 |
Marquette | 10/26 - 10/31 | 1225 LV | 3.5 | 46 | 40 | 4 | 3 | Clinton +6 |
Emerson | 10/26 - 10/27 | 400 LV | 4.9 | 48 | 42 | 9 | 1 | Clinton + |
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Stein (G) Spread Final Results -- -- -- 46.5 47.2 3.6 1.0 Trump +0.7 RCP Average 10/26 - 11/2 -- -- 46.8 40.3 5.8 2.0 Clinton +6.5 Remington Research (R)* 11/1 - 11/2 2720 LV 1.9 49 41 3 -- Clinton +8 Loras 10/31 - 11/1 500 LV 4.4 44 38 7 2 Clinton +6 Marquette 10/26 - 10/31 1225 LV 3.5 46 40 4 3 Clinton +6 Emerson 10/26 - 10/27 400 LV 4.9 48 42 9 1 Clinton + RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Steinwww.realclearpolitics.com
Didn't copy & paste very well, but it was 6.5% (!) on election night per Real Clear Politics (Click link to get a better view) and - as you can see - somehow on election night SEVEN PERCENT more voters suddenly decided for Trump than the average of the polls (which is why she didn't campaign in Wis - Why bother? She was ahead more than Biden is NOW !!) . Actually I think the Russian IT guys changed a digit or two in the electronic reporting on election night, but nobody seems to believe me or want to talk about it... 🤷♂️
SHE stays the same as the polling averages at 46% but he - mysteriously - bumps from 40.3% to 47.2%.
MAGIC !!! 💥 (or good Russian IT work...)
I’m going to panic. I’ve already justified stocking up on liquor due to panic. Don’t f*ck with me.
Panic or celebrate. You're covered either way.I’m going to panic. I’ve already justified stocking up on liquor due to panic. Don’t f*ck with me.
2-3 weeks ago; TRUMP 315 Electoral Votes....my position....I don't really know who will win. I have a gut feeling based on what I have learned about Trump and his base. I am prepared to be wrong. NBD.
My sister is on our county's election board and she says they have seen record numbers of early voters. Clark County, IN. I think it's remarkable that I am the only poster here who has put a Trump pick down for the record. It could happen. Tells me we are in for another temper-tantrum shit-show if it does.
LOTS of people HATE Trump....very few hate Joe (cept some Trump fanatics for no real reasons)...
I think we are close enough to next Tuesday now for a final prediction thread. What have you all?
I'm currently going with a cross between a blue wave and a more conservative result:
Biden 357
Dems Senate 53
Dems House 242
LOTS of people HATE Trump....very few hate Joe (cept some Trump fanatics for no real reasons)...
No one hates Joe. He just has pretty much zero legislative accomplishments during his time in Congress, except for his "mistake" with the crime bill.
He is a career legislator, so he does not have take a stance on anything and can follow and not lead. Most Congresmen are that way. And why Governors are typically nominated for President.
Biden is example A of a pathetic, non-leader legislator. Pubs have a list of their own, so don't take this as political. Dole was the Pubs Biden.
after the election bob dole had a fantastic interview on jay Leno. Leno goes well bob it’s been it’s six months since the election how have you been keeping yourself busy. Dole goes oh well I’m occupying myself with all sorts of things jay. I joined a law firm for one. Leno goes great bob how long have you been with them. Are you enjoying it? Dole goes six months ago I joined up. Oh yeah great, great. Really good guys. Then dole took a long pause and goes one of these days I’m gonna have to get down there and meet em. Lmao.No one hates Joe. He just has pretty much zero legislative accomplishments during his time in Congress, except for his "mistake" with the crime bill.
He is a career legislator, so he does not have take a stance on anything and can follow and not lead. Most Congresmen are that way. And why Governors are typically nominated for President.
Biden is example A of a pathetic, non-leader legislator. Pubs have a list of their own, so don't take this as political. Dole was the Pubs Biden.
Had the doctor from Jasper on Lawrence last night. He was livid over that.Him claiming at that recent rally that doctors get paid more if a death is a Covid death is truly disgusting. I’d like him to say that to a front line doctors face. He’s a big tough guy so he should be able to do that.
Had the doctor from Jasper on Lawrence last night. He was livid over that.
In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.Tell me about Georgia.
One interesting idea in favor of the polls, if there are shy Trump voters they are even shyer about their Senate vote. Trump leads the GOP Senate candidate in 30 of the 36 races. https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html#item-3
Reputable links?In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
I wouldn't say there is a large number of shy Trump voters. But there are absolutely tons of Trumpers that love to troll the pollsters by telling them they are voting Biden just to skew everything on election day. We absolutely love to mess with liberal pollsters.
Georgia and North Carolina are seeing a surge in black out turnout. I also believe all the other states you listed are as well. I think you are talking about in Miami Florida. Where they traditionally vote during souls to the polls. Also sometimes they plant these stories to stir up the voters to vote. You are fake news. O points awarded.In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
Well, OF COURSE the Black vote was gonna be down in 2016 !! BHO was not running....but HC was AHEAD by 6.5 even in CONSERVATIVE-leaning "Real Clear"...and in 538 by 5.3 anyway (& that Black vote thing should have been anticipated).Here is 538 which shows 5.3. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/
Black vote in Wisconsin was down 19% in 2016 from 2012. Some of that drop is due to that. https://apnews.com/article/2c6b7bd2812b49b4adb9615cd86137cd
In addition, polls in 2016 did not weight for education. So the high school educated White male was undercounted. All the major polling firms learned from that and now weight for education. That should make them more accurate.
Yeah, I HOPE...! 🤷♂️ 💥😲
Well, now their saying TONS OF BALLOTS are stuck in post offices in Miami Dade (thanx to Trump laying off postal workers & getting rid of sorting machines) and that may account for it some...In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
I’m going to panic. I’ve already justified stocking up on liquor due to panic. Don’t f*ck with me.
In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
In Georgia, as in several battlegrounds - North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Dems have African American turnout problems - they admit it publicly and are paniced in some places. They are further in a panic about Hispanic early voting a very high turnout. The Biden campaign has openly admitted that they don't have a ground game many places but Trump campaign does. Nothing secret about these matters. Dem spokespersons openly admit they have AA and Hispanic problems beyond just turnout. In some places - or many battleground places - unusually high percentages of Blacks and Hispanics are voting for Trump.
I'm way too lazy to do serious analysis or actual math. So I'll simply predict that it's not going to be any sort of nail biter. Biden will win fairly decisively, both in electoral votes and margins in key states. This won't drag out for weeks.
Dems will take the Senate by a couple of seats, and of course will have the house.
No post election riots.
Bonus prediction. Joe does not finish his first term, though the reason why hasn't yet been revealed to me.
No post election riots with those results are telling. Guess those mericans with the guns would be dangerous
Kyle police confirm responding to reports of ‘vehicle contact’ related to Trump supporters surrounding Biden bus on I-35
Supporters of President Donald Trump allegedly harassed a Joe Biden-Kamala Harris bus as it traveled through Central Texas on Friday, according to local Democratic activists.www.google.com