Never mind. I was just going to tell you it was supposed to be nice before I got your point!
Prediction Thread
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
Entire next week looks amazing weather. 70s and sunny late next week/ weekend.
He got you. Because Trump voters are all saying they are voting Election Day..... at least I think. It’s windy and cold here today.
A slew of Pennsylvania polls today. Mostly more of the same for Biden. Emerson has him up 5, Siena and Ipsos have him up 6, and ABC/WaPo has him up 7. The one outlier is InsiderAdvantage. Like Trafalgar a couple of days ago, they have Trump +1.
The weight of all these pro-Biden polls has Biden at +4.8 in the 538 average, but it's possible that these pollsters all clustering together are all off in the same direction for the same reasons, and if their error is no bigger or smaller than Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage, then Biden's lead in PA right now might really be more like 2 or 3 points.
Either way, it's looking very possible that PA - a state likely to be one of the very slowest to report results - will end up being High Noon.
The weight of all these pro-Biden polls has Biden at +4.8 in the 538 average, but it's possible that these pollsters all clustering together are all off in the same direction for the same reasons, and if their error is no bigger or smaller than Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage, then Biden's lead in PA right now might really be more like 2 or 3 points.
Either way, it's looking very possible that PA - a state likely to be one of the very slowest to report results - will end up being High Noon.
I think we're going have a pretty good idea Tuesday night. PA and MI almost always go in the same direction as FL. Therefore, if Trump wins FL by lets say 2 points and I believe he won it by 1.5 in 2016 then odds are good that he gained a half point or so in PA and MI as well. Now if he wins FL by say .5 to 1.5 then yeah it could be 2000 all over again.
I don't think I buy that. Yeah, a lot of states tend to move in the same direction, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Hell, in 2016, Hawaii moved in the same direction as Florida. A lot of that has more to do with the national picture than correlation between states.
That said, some states do correlate more than others, and you're right that Florida correlates more strongly with the Midwest than it does with neighboring southern states, so there is that. However, I would add an extra caution this year: Major shifts in support in Florida this year appear to be among Hispanics (for Trump) and seniors (for Biden), demos that are uniquely important to Florida. How those two shifts shake out together might not tell us a whole lot about Michigan or Pennsylvania.
He's talking about partisan shifts from one election to the next, rather than who wins.
I'm just making an educated guess that if Trump takes FL by any decent margin at all he takes PA as well especially with Biden's fracking gaffe.
Depending whether your proposed 2024 Republicans are more like Lincoln or Willkie or are more like Lindsay Graham, Gingrich, McConnell or Rand Paul, I might be on board with that.
Rasmussen has Trump going down in FL. That's not good news for Trump. Not good at all.
politicaliq.com
Florida Final Poll: Biden 51% Trump 47%
The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida.
politicaliq.com
I'd say lying and fear-mongering are both pretty pathetic...
"Trump has criticized Biden for saying he'd follow the scientists, and the president claims the Democrat would shut the country down. In fact, Biden hasn’t said whether he’d endorse large-scale shutdowns of the nation’s economy, if things get drastically worse, like much of the country did in March.
“If you vote for Biden, it means no kids in school, no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgiving, no Christmas and no Fourth of July together," Trump said at a rally Wednesday in Goodyear, Arizona. “Other than that, you have a wonderful life.”
I think Trump forgot that Biden doesn't take office till Jan 22/23, long past Thanksgiving and Christmas...
"Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, said Trump's rhetoric is effective with people who are already disposed to believe such things about Biden. But to a person who is not in the audience, she said, such talk is a “sign of desperation.”
“The problem with the rhetoric is it's an alienating rhetoric for people who hear it as extreme and improbable,” Jamieson said. It's also problematic, she said, “because you expect a president of the United States to calibrate his rhetoric to reality in at least some plausible way."
Last week in Florida, Trump sought to boost his standing among older Americans angered by his response to the coronavirus by portraying Biden as the one who would do them harm. Trump falsely said Biden's energy plan "would mean that America's seniors have no air conditioning during the summer, no heat during the winter and no electricity during peak hours.”
There are 4 million old people in fla. you know a bunch are pissed at trump and the governor of CovidRasmussen has Trump going down in FL. That's not good news for Trump. Not good at all.
Florida Final Poll: Biden 51% Trump 47%
The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida.
Damn. Apparently you CAN make this shit up and you fell for it.
Do you enjoy being played for a fool?
Very different issues at play in the 2 states, though. Besides, Black turnout will decide PA.
Democracy Institute Poll: Electoral College Landslide for Donald Trump - The Jewish Voice
President Donald Trump is poised to win re-election in an Electoral College landslide, according to a poll released on Sunday. The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic...
thejewishvoice.com
The above piece is predicting a Trump landslide. (BTW, I do not buy that). But there are several polling organizations giving Trump more than a fighting chance. Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, Susquehanna, Rasmussen, as well as the link above. The amount of disparity of these polls is shocking, and at this point I don't know what to think. If I were to bet $100, I bet on Biden, but I don't think it is a lock.
I mean, c'mon. A national poll of 1,500 people purports to predict the results in particular states? Not a single state would have had a big enough sample to do that with anything even remotely approaching accuracy. They also fall into the trap of other pollsters of trying to measure the "shy Trump voter" effect that might not even exist.Democracy Institute Poll: Electoral College Landslide for Donald Trump - The Jewish Voice
President Donald Trump is poised to win re-election in an Electoral College landslide, according to a poll released on Sunday. The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic...
The above piece is predicting a Trump landslide. (BTW, I do not buy that). But there are several polling organizations giving Trump more than a fighting chance. Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, Susquehanna, Rasmussen, as well as the link above. The amount of disparity of these polls is shocking, and at this point I don't know what to think. If I were to bet $100, I bet on Biden, but I don't think it is a lock.
That's not just an outlier poll, it's a bad poll.
Yeah regarding old folks DeSantis should've done exactly what Cuomo, Murphy, Newsom, etc did. It's amazing that it was only Democrat governors who killed a bunch of healthy seniors in nursing homes yet the media is giving Trump and DeSantis the blame.
GRRRRR! The media!!!!
C'mon, man, you can do better than that. The coronavirus is a serious political problem for Trump and DeSantis. That's true whether you like it or not.
Actually, Wasserman works for the non-partisan Cook Political Report which most people would probably say has a center-right orientation, similar to RCP. He's the editor for House races, so since 2010 he's been in charge of the people who were usually predicting GOP wins.
He predicted Trump would win in 2016, and he also predicted the huge rejection of Trumpism in 2018- both based on the internal polls he was privy to. This year he sees those same polls pointing to a Biden victory- but that doesn't suddenly transform him into a "never-Trumper". Pretty sure his main interest is in being CORRECT. That's why he bucked conventional wisdom in 2016 and predicted that Clinton was vulnerable in MI,WI and PA...
Here's a problem you are ignoring... Early voting is more of a Dem trend. The fact that more GOP voters have adopted it, in a state like FL is on the surface a positive. But it also means less of the dedicated GOP voters who vote on election day will be doing so, because they have already voted.
Those votes have to come from somewhere- the early voting numbers voting GOP are not all "new" voters. And there is both some slippage among GOP voters who are voting for Biden, as well as the NPA votes which have been cast. You have over 1 Million NPA votes banked, and Biden has higher poll #s with NPA voters, than he does the state overall.
| No Party Affiliation | 1,854,160 | 21.3 |
The numbers I've seen are like 9%. That means a lot of NPAs (Non-political affiliated) voters skew to Biden. There has been a lot of commentary on Maimi-Dade seeming to lag behind, but for the past 3 days, the highest number of voters in Miami were #1 Dems and #2 NPA. That means the Dems are likely ahead by more statewide than just the raw (D vs GOP) #s would suggest...
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What is it with which you disagree? Biden's legislative accomplishments? Congressional candidates not as good as governors in leading?
TIA for the discussion. I am not looking to argue, but am looking for more details about your disagreements.
This aired during the OSU/PSU game last night. Effective for exactly the reasons Trump and Rudy went to such great lengths to attack Biden and trump up the fake Ukraine scandal, at a time most polls showed Biden trailing behind the other Dem contenders in the summer of 2019...
Pretty much most of your second and third paragraphs. I don't agree that Biden doesn't take positions on things, don't agree that he is incapable of leading and don't think he is pathetic. I had the same opinion of Dole.
The timing was just bad for Dole. While Bill Clinton's foibles were substantial, he was well-liked (a 57% approval rating heading into the election) and had many more national positives working in his favor while Dole's favorables were not high (43%). And Dole looked too much like the previous GOP candidate who the public had roundly rejected (GHWB...extremely decent, experienced, but bland WW2 vet in an era of massive change.)
Biden's time as VP is a big plus for him s he showed himself to be very effective working with Congress in that role. Will be interesting to see if he's able to repeat that as President. A lot of the people he served in Congress with are gone.
Oh wow that’s a really powerful one. Have to say they missed the boat by not having the whole Dunder Mifflin team do an ad for them.
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He gambling, nothing to lose, knows he wins big if Trump does, loses small if he loses.
Gaffes are one thing. Long, ridiculous BS quotes which make NO SENSE are anoter:
"I'm gonna build a wall and Mexico's gonna pay for it."
"We're gonna repeal and replace Obamacare on day one"
"We're gonna repeal and replace Obamacare with something just as good"
"We're gonna guarantee protections for 'pre-existing conditions'" (in a vacuum with no healthcare plan)
"Maybe we need to adjust the dollar" (the dollar FLOATS against a basket of currencies & cannot be adjusted)
"Joe Biden is gonna destroy the suburbs"
[Mexican immigrants] "bring crime, are rapists....and oh yeah, maybe a few are good people.."
"We're gonna label China a 'currency manipulator' on day one".
The list goes on and on....a video of all his bizarre, dishonest, delusion and non-sensical statements would be over an hour long.
And that's not even INCLUDING his own gaffes, of which there are many...
Lol. No, you can make this shit up
False video of Joe Biden viewed 1 million times on Twitter
A deceptively edited video of Joe Biden making it appear the Democratic presidential nominee forgot what state he was in was viewed more than one million times on Twitter over
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