Prediction Thread
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
I'm convinced by recent Georgia polls, and I think it's indicative that Senators are particularly vulnerable because they are hit from both sides - people who don't like Trump, and Trumpers who think they haven't been supportive enough. So the only truly vulnerable GOP Senator I have winning is Daines.
Trump's favorite pollster (Zogby) is saying it could be 7 or 8...
Pollster Zogby Sees Democrats Flipping U.S. Senate
Oct.26 -- Pollster John Zogby, founder of John Zogby Strategies, says the Democrats "could pick up as many as seven or eight" Senate seats in the 2020 U.S. elections as he is seeing a "huge blue wave" in early voting. He speaks with Bloomberg's Guy Johnson and Alix Steel on "Bloomberg Markets."
Daines is the only vulnerable GOP senator that I can say I really hope he wins. The others are blah to me. I think he wins and Alabama flips.
That gives you Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina.
Trump 299
Biden 239
GOP Holds Senate, gains in House but not enough to matter.
Rioting thru Thanksgiving.
Biden 239
GOP Holds Senate, gains in House but not enough to matter.
Rioting thru Thanksgiving.
Collins is so bad I had forgotten about her.
I guess I could see that scenario but man that's a tough draw
It sounds crazy when you look at the number, but look at this map, and tell me where I'm clearly wrong.
I mean, obviously, there are places I could be wrong, but I'm not predicting anything crazy, here.
Help me out. I can't figure out how to get to 337.
Edit: Nevermind, I just figured it out.
Yeah, it took me a minute to imagine a world Biden wins Iowa but not Pennsylvania.
I think your scenario is realistic. I think it's just a tough putt to sweep those states.It sounds crazy when you look at the number, but look at this map, and tell me where I'm clearly wrong.
I mean, obviously, there are places I could be wrong, but I'm not predicting anything crazy, here.
Gotta have 2 Dem senators in Georgia sounds crazy but becoming plausible. Do the Mormons in Arizona turn out for McSally? We know they dislike Trump.
Definitely possible.
Wait, it is 341. Somehow RI became neutral and it is so small I did not notice it.
The early vote combined with House District polls in PA make it seem more and more like PA has slipped away from Trump...
Yeah, like I said above, I've been convinced by the consistency of recent Georgia polling. That may end being my downfall. It's quite possible both seats could go red. Quite very really possible.
Now you've got me confused again! Just link the map!
Edit: NM, I figured it out again. I'm getting slow in my old age. So the only difference between us is you are giving Trump Georgia.
Yes. Here is the map since I have itNow you've got me confused again! Just link the map!
Edit: NM, I figured it out again. I'm getting slow in my old age. So the only difference between us is you are giving Trump Georgia.
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com
Just as I said to Spartans about the Senate, Georgia could be my undoing. But the blue shift in the polls has been consistent for two weeks now. I really think it's flipping.Yes. Here is the map since I have it
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
Florida is a coin toss. It could easily go either way. I think Georgia is similar, I split them but in reality, I suspect it is like MI and WI, the same person will win both.
Can confirm. Basically the 4 high-population counties that circle Philly (Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware) are going to go for Ds in ways they never have before...and they used to be a bedrock of Republican votes/$. The places that Trump plays well in central and north PA are shrinking populations who also like Biden (of Scranton) much more than Hillary. Remember that Wilmington, DE is basically a Philly suburb and JB a regular at Eagles/Sixers games.
Lots of people love Trump. Nobody loves Joe.
That's smart. I'm not sure I buy it, because it seems like the only thing Florida correlates with is Florida, but you're probably right when push comes to shove.
I think if Trump runs it up in the panhandle that means something to Georgia.
Biden-305
Dem Senate-50
Dem House-238
I’m in do not jinx mode. By the weekend I may have Biden closer to 400, with a few more Senate seats.
Dem Senate-50
Dem House-238
I’m in do not jinx mode. By the weekend I may have Biden closer to 400, with a few more Senate seats.
Hate trumps love. Ask any of my ex's.
In normal years I'm agreeing with you more in regards to campaign energy.
This year you've got one campaign that is broke so they are charging the American tax payer to fly him around from old school rally to rally.
You've got the other guy who is using the #1 topic on the campaign to lead by example, that's there is a current health pandemic.
One guys actions are desperate and reckless, the other is conscious of the current zeitgeist and in turn....makes it pretty easy to make a contrast.
Also there's going to be what...120 to 130 million votes cast? A 3000 to 5000 person rally isn't a pube on the ass of the overall voting block.
William Hung had a pretty big fan base in the early 00's that would come out and see him.
Trump supporters do love their Trump against all humane logic.
Yeah, but I’ve never seen one side hate another like the D’s hate Trump.
And I never thought I’d say that after 2016. People absolutely loathed HRC.
My vote was driven more by being terrified of four more years of Trump vs support for Biden/Harris. We’ve got record numbers of women turning out in TX, and also record numbers of young people. I suspect it’s the same elsewhere as well. Those groups overwhelmingly reject Trump.
And I suspect the “hidden” voter this year will be a voter that votes down ticket for pubs, yet either votes for Biden OR doesn’t vote for anyone in the presidential slot on the ballot. That’s the only thing that explains the support for senator John Cornyn in TX, and the presidential polls. There’s consistently been a 5-7 point difference in the polls. That doesn’t happen by accident.
I agree with Goat re: numbers, only GA splits the senators. The “blue wave” (second time in a row) will push the senate blue.
The thing we haven’t talked about is state government races. Given that it’s a redistricting year, dem gains there will be HUGE for future national races. That’s because any map will probably be tempered, as opposed to drawn in a way that clearly favors pubs. That’s because the state government will need to compromise, given that it’ll likely be split.
It’s long overdue one many places. Take my district. My congressman barely won the last two times, and isn’t running again (Will Hurd). Somehow the guy represents El Paso- and northern San Antonio. The part that’s fairly red, normally. These places are at least an 8 hours drive apart.
In short, that’s a gerrymandered all to hell map in TX. Another example is packing Corpus Christi with Brownsville. You couldn’t have two different areas if you tried. In every conceivable way. They did it that way because they know voter turnout on the border is always lower, and the (mostly) white conservative folks in Corpus Christi will win out, thus keeping the seat red.
Can’t we just agree on some national standards for districting AND voting best practices? I doubt that what’s happening now is something the framers contemplated. The game is rigged in many ways now, and I hope this is an anomaly and not a pattern. And yes, I’m including a state like Maryland as a place that needs a new map.
I'm torn, but I'm going with:
270
51
236
I hope you and Goat are more right than me and I'm more right than Hillz (okay, there's really never any worry about that second one.
)
Nate Silver: No Evidence of Race Tightening.
Everyday bum translation: Trump's f*cked.
fivethirtyeight.com
Everyday bum translation: Trump's f*cked.
We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in…
PA is going to give me an ulcer. I have major anxiety about Trump pulling an upset there, which could unravel the whole thing.Nate Silver: No Evidence of Race Tightening.
Everyday bum translation: Trump's f*cked.
We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in…
Would it make you feel better if I told you that local GOP insiders don’t think Trump is going to win PA?
I don't see it. I think Biden wins by 5 points+ there, which would be close to the historic trend line for Dems in PA.
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