Prediction Thread

stollcpa

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No injuries or cars burned. Looks pretty innocent compared to stealing and burning. Stealing is a strong word. I guess the more proper words are advanced reparations.

Funny thing about Texas. People leaving California fleeing democrats running the state move to Texas and vote for the same thing we’re running from.
 

codylance

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Wasserman saw the Trump momentum (and warned about it) in CD polls the week prior to election day in 2016. This year he sees an entirely different set of momentum driving the race...

A backlog of mail is piling up at a Miami-Dade post office as Election Day nears

This could explain those Black/Latino votes in Florida not rolling in....

 
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TheOriginalHappyGoat

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I wouldn't say there is a large number of shy Trump voters. But there are absolutely tons of Trumpers that love to troll the pollsters by telling them they are voting Biden just to skew everything on election day. We absolutely love to mess with liberal pollsters.
The problem with your theory is the demographics. Trump is doing better than ever among uneducated white men. It's seniors and women that have him worried. If there were a significant number of trolls screwing with pollsters, that would likely be flipped.
 

mcmurtry66

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No injuries or cars burned. Looks pretty innocent compared to stealing and burning. Stealing is a strong word. I guess the more proper words are advanced reparations.

Funny thing about Texas. People leaving California fleeing democrats running the state move to Texas and vote for the same thing we’re running from.
Yeah it’ll be interesting how state policies are impacted. Texas is very difft from calif: homestead is huge - much larger than Florida; no income taxes etc
 
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Mas-sa-suta

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No injuries or cars burned. Looks pretty innocent compared to stealing and burning. Stealing is a strong word. I guess the more proper words are advanced reparations.

Funny thing about Texas. People leaving California fleeing democrats running the state move to Texas and vote for the same thing we’re running from.
The Texans just wanted that bunch out of Texas with no delay.
 

zeke4ahs

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No injuries or cars burned. Looks pretty innocent compared to stealing and burning. Stealing is a strong word. I guess the more proper words are advanced reparations.

Funny thing about Texas. People leaving California fleeing democrats running the state move to Texas and vote for the same thing we’re running from.
There was a damaged car and could have been much worse. Can you show me a picture of anyone vandalizing or injuring people where they have a Biden flag? Or five or ten? #cult45
 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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No injuries or cars burned. Looks pretty innocent compared to stealing and burning. Stealing is a strong word. I guess the more proper words are advanced reparations.

Funny thing about Texas. People leaving California fleeing democrats running the state move to Texas and vote for the same thing we’re running from.
The Texans just wanted that bunch out of Texas with no delay.
I'd just like to highlight how the standard response here from conservatives is to dismiss or justify this abhorrent behavior.

Whatever the faults of some on the left, you never see liberal posters here defending the excesses. "Oh yeah, we all agree looting is wrong," you see. We don't defend violence or intimidation.

I guess that's the primary difference between us. You guys do you, though.
 

stollcpa

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There was a damaged car and could have been much worse. Can you show me a picture of anyone vandalizing or injuring people where they have a Biden flag? Or five or ten? #cult45
Ok, I am convinced the rioters and looters aren’t Biden voters.
I'd just like to highlight how the standard response here from conservatives is to dismiss or justify this abhorrent behavior.

Whatever the faults of some on the left, you never see liberal posters here defending the excesses. "Oh yeah, we all agree looting is wrong," you see. We don't defend violence or intimidation.

I guess that's the primary difference between us. You guys do you, though.
Driving a vehicle with an American Flag and Trump Flag isn’t something I’ve done but I don’t see the intimidation.

Biden has a large bus with his name on it driving down the highway. Trump supporters have a right to drive down that same highway. If one of them intentionally hits the bus, the police should give it the same attention they’re giving rioters and looters.
 

iuwclurker

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No injuries or cars burned. Looks pretty innocent compared to stealing and burning. Stealing is a strong word. I guess the more proper words are advanced reparations.

Funny thing about Texas. People leaving California fleeing democrats running the state move to Texas and vote for the same thing we’re running from.
Just crazy how people fleeing to Pennsylvania don’t vote Amish.
 

Fro

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Jon Ralston said:
If you look at the math below, it already was very difficult for Trump. Now he has less of a chance to win than he does of getting a gaming license in Nevada.

I don't know how much more mail will be returned before Tuesday, nor do I know how many ballots will be rejected (the rate so far shows it doesn’t change the lead very much). But the dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.
Jon Ralston has spoken on Nevada.
 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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Trump is down around 95k votes in FL right?
Not sure where you're getting that. If the recent Marist poll is correct, Biden is up by something like 1.5 million votes on early voting, while Trump expects to win the Election Day vote by about 1 million. This matches with the 4-point Biden lead found by the same poll. However, 4 points is slightly on the high end of what polls have been finding, so if Biden's lead is really more like only 1 or 2 points, then we are looking at a total difference of only 100,000-200,000 votes. Either way, Trump has a very real shot at Florida, but there's no universe in which he's essentially tied with Biden on early voting. Biden will go into Tuesday the clear leader in the clubhouse. Republican turnout Tuesday will determine whether or not that gap gets closed.
 

dbmhoosier

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Not sure where you're getting that. If the recent Marist poll is correct, Biden is up by something like 1.5 million votes on early voting, while Trump expects to win the Election Day vote by about 1 million. This matches with the 4-point Biden lead found by the same poll. However, 4 points is slightly on the high end of what polls have been finding, so if Biden's lead is really more like only 1 or 2 points, then we are looking at a total difference of only 100,000-200,000 votes. Either way, Trump has a very real shot at Florida, but there's no universe in which he's essentially tied with Biden on early voting. Biden will go into Tuesday the clear leader in the clubhouse. Republican turnout Tuesday will determine whether or not that gap gets closed.
I read that it had narrowed to 95k last night. It was Ds plus 116k yesterday according to this.

 

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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I read that it had narrowed to 95k last night. It was Ds plus 116k yesterday according to this.

Yeah, but Biden is getting nearly 10% of Republicans, while Trump is only getting 5% of Democrats, plus Biden is up 56-41 among independents. So the Dems might only be up 95K in terms of ballots returned, but Biden is up by a lot more than that. Marist has Biden up 19 points overall on early voting, although that's from a few days ago, so it might have narrowed. No matter how you slice, Biden's lead right now is more likely to be over a million than under.
 

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