FL, GA, TX, IA, OH are all states I gave to Trump that were within the margin of error, so that's a cautious map. Honestly think the results will be closely in line with the 2008 election (though obviously the map will be different)....
Prediction Thread
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
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FL, GA, TX, IA, OH are all states I gave to Trump that were within the margin of error, so that's a cautious map. Honestly think the results will be closely in line with the 2008 election (though obviously the map will be different)....
I won't be surprised, it is just that I never think that I have the money in my wallet, when the check remains to be cashed.
Trump has banked on the theory that governing to the 45% works, if they are super excited they will turn out in much bigger numbers. It worked in 2016 as a candidate.
But the problem becomes governing. As a candidate, the 55% are annoyed but that isn't great motivation. Anger is motivating, that is why most commercials and social media campaigns are designed to create outrage.
Texas and Nevada have already had more people vote than 2016. I suspect that will continue into other states. If it does, it is very bad news for the 45%.
But the problem becomes governing. As a candidate, the 55% are annoyed but that isn't great motivation. Anger is motivating, that is why most commercials and social media campaigns are designed to create outrage.
Texas and Nevada have already had more people vote than 2016. I suspect that will continue into other states. If it does, it is very bad news for the 45%.
As if you are the only one in this thread making outrageous predictions you stupid fvck.
I misquoted Goat, admitted my mistake and deleted the post. Go fvck yourself.
I'm not so sure Trump will have the lead there at the end of the evening. I think I read where the most heavily Democratic Co are going to go ahead and count their mail-in votes first, whereas other areas say they are going to count in-person votes first. I think the Sec of State has left it up to the individual counties to decide how they want to proceed...
It's not like GOP turnout in 2016 on election day in PA was a tidal wave, that overwhelmed an early Dem lead in absentee ballots. The numbers in Philly were down and Trump ended up winning by around 44,000 votes. Many of the "new GOP voters" the Pubs like to brag about are people who already voted for Trump in 2016 (as registered Dems) and they've just changed their registration and are now Pubs in name, as well as action.
Trump has loyal followers in PA. But if they were the majority they'd have elected a GOP Governor and Senator in 2018. Biden just needs to turn his vote out, like the Dems were able to do in 2018...
I understand the bedwetting from the Democrats and the overconfidence from the Trumpers, but this isn't going to be close. I predicted 351 for Biden, 52 seats in the Senate, and 10+ pick-up in the House. It could be much larger. Biden's lead has been consistent and Trump's unfavorables haven't changed much in the past four years. When you add the f-cked up COVID response that Trump continues to bring up every single day on the stump, this election will not be in doubt tomorrow night. AZ is going blue with both Biden and Kelly. PA may take a few days to get the count, but we'll know from district details how that election goes, and Trump isn't coming out ahead. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are all going Biden by at least 4-5 points. When you throw Florida, NC, and Georgia into the lean Biden category, you're headed for a landslide. I'll be very pleased with the 351, 52, +10 outcome, but the cherry on the cake would be Harrison winning in SC. That might be cause for an extra celebration beverage.
WAAH !!! <-----(Me, a crying, bed-wetting Dem STILL afraid - after what happened in Wis, Mi, Pa, and even FL in 2016 after HC had won virtually ALL the polls in those states {cept Fl] for MONTHS before the election - and still somehow on election night the totals got changed JUST ENOUGH to put Drumpf over the top.....with Karl Rove quietly predicting what actually DID end up happening that night, against all rationality...)
GOD, I hope you're right !!! (I went with 351 finally in my pred. too 🤷♂️).
But I'm still scared....
(Also REALLY hope you're right about Harrison winning..!!!)
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There are well-understood reasons why HRC lost last time. Mostly a bad news cycle at the very end. Also polling deficiencies that have been baked-in.
Trump has alienated suburban women and motivated Blacks. And he never had enough of a base to withstand those 2 factors.
Joe withstood the October surprise pretty easily. There was some closing of his lead over the weekend (ABC/WaPo poll), but he now looks to be holding the lead and finishing strong.
Predicting Biden will declare victory before midnight tomorrow.
Cook is out with their Final House Predictions and they feature shifts in 8 races. Every single one favors the Dems, and 4, in particular, caught my eye...
3 are in Texas, where you've got to say GOP candidates having their chances downgraded is likely a consequence of early voting, and where those votes are coming from...
The other really notable shift is (IMHO) in Connor Lamb's race being upgraded from lean Dem to likely Dem... Remember Lamb won a special election in 2017, in a district that had voted for Trump a year earlier. He defeated a Trump personal favorite,after Trump made an election eve visit to a rally and denounced Lamb...
Lamb's opponent this time is mega-Trumper Sean Parnell, who actually spoke at the RNC and is like Lamb a combat veteran. The GOP targeted Lamb in this moderate district in the Pittsburgh suburbs, and Cook shifting this to "likely Dem" based on their latest (final) polling is IMO a Great sign for Biden regarding his ability to hold the suburbs and make inroads in Western PA...
So on Fri Oct 30, Junior sleazes into town and hosts a rally featuring Ted Nugent and Sean Parnell. And 3 days later Cook revises the race Parnell is in down from "leans Dem" to "likely Dem"... Maybe Biden should hire Junior and Ted to headline more rallies...
Donald Trump Jr., Sean Parnell And Ted Nugent Headline Rally In Beaver County
Donald Trump Jr. headlined a Get Out The Vote rally in Beaver County on Friday.
pittsburgh.cbslocal.com
Are you really this stupid and biased, or just pretending to be so for fun?
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The turnout numbers will be interesting.
Midterm turnout in 2018 was historic, highest turnout % in over a century (1914).
61.6% was the high water mark of the modern era, for Presidential elections, set in 2008.
70% of the 2016 vote has already been cast. I think it's quite possible we break the 2008 number this year.
So the rioters and looters should have it easier the the vehicle that hit another vehicle?
Is he the one who sent Hurricane Delta to ruin people's lives?
I just heard that a quarter of the votes already in are new voters. I think young people are going to blow the doors off of what they normally do. They have seemed much more involved.
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Appears young voters are far more galvanized than in past elections. That could prove a difference maker
Yes. Just listened to a podcast where they were talking about news cycle. In 2016 the first thing people mentioned was Comey and emails. As much as Trump and Fox News tried time make Hunter Biden a thing, it never became one. People have consistently mentioned Covid as the number 1 issue since spring. And that is NOT good for Trump.
No this doesn’t have anything to do with who wins, just wanted to give the board a heads up.
You should have gotten $300 from the state and the feds kicked in $600 for a total of $900.
99% of the time, Lucy is just pulling crazy crap out of his keister. But 1% of the time, he accidentally lets slip that he might actually know something.
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