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Prediction Thread

Actually, Wasserman works for the non-partisan Cook Political Report which most people would probably say has a center-right orientation, similar to RCP. He's the editor for House races, so since 2010 he's been in charge of the people who were usually predicting GOP wins.

He predicted Trump would win in 2016, and he also predicted the huge rejection of Trumpism in 2018- both based on the internal polls he was privy to. This year he sees those same polls pointing to a Biden victory- but that doesn't suddenly transform him into a "never-Trumper". Pretty sure his main interest is in being CORRECT. That's why he bucked conventional wisdom in 2016 and predicted that Clinton was vulnerable in MI,WI and PA...

Here's a problem you are ignoring... Early voting is more of a Dem trend. The fact that more GOP voters have adopted it, in a state like FL is on the surface a positive. But it also means less of the dedicated GOP voters who vote on election day will be doing so, because they have already voted.

Those votes have to come from somewhere- the early voting numbers voting GOP are not all "new" voters. And there is both some slippage among GOP voters who are voting for Biden, as well as the NPA votes which have been cast. You have over 1 Million NPA votes banked, and Biden has higher poll #s with NPA voters, than he does the state overall.

No Party Affiliation1,854,16021.3

The numbers I've seen are like 9%. That means a lot of NPAs (Non-political affiliated) voters skew to Biden. There has been a lot of commentary on Maimi-Dade seeming to lag behind, but for the past 3 days, the highest number of voters in Miami were #1 Dems and #2 NPA. That means the Dems are likely ahead by more statewide than just the raw (D vs GOP) #s would suggest...

UGH ! Dems need to win Miami-Dade by WAY more than THAT !!!
(Hillary won Dade 624k to 333k)

 
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Not sure where you're getting that. If the recent Marist poll is correct, Biden is up by something like 1.5 million votes on early voting, while Trump expects to win the Election Day vote by about 1 million. This matches with the 4-point Biden lead found by the same poll. However, 4 points is slightly on the high end of what polls have been finding, so if Biden's lead is really more like only 1 or 2 points, then we are looking at a total difference of only 100,000-200,000 votes. Either way, Trump has a very real shot at Florida, but there's no universe in which he's essentially tied with Biden on early voting. Biden will go into Tuesday the clear leader in the clubhouse. Republican turnout Tuesday will determine whether or not that gap gets closed.
lol you think Trump is behind by 1.5 million voters in Florida? In what world?
 
He somehow got into Hunter's stash again.
He probably heard it on one of the left wing propaganda sites. It's amazing to me how gullible some people can be, dude probably thinks Trump's losing Texas too.

I would be willing to ban bet anyone on this board Trump takes both of those states. Any takers?
 
He probably heard it on one of the left wing propaganda sites. It's amazing to me how gullible some people can be, dude probably thinks Trump's losing Texas too.

I would be willing to ban bet anyone on this board Trump takes both of those states. Any takers?

The Republicans will win Texas. But it has to be uncomfortably close in internal polling for one of the top Texas GOP doners to spend big money in lawsuits to get votes tossed.
 
Let me get this straight, if you vote for Trump you’re uneducated. so if you’re educated that makes you a socialis!
 
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Wasserman's final map... says there's very little difference between a Biden 400 win and 290 win, so he wouldn't be surprised at all or none of Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina flipping.



Also 538's forecast has Biden as "clearly favored" to win (over 90%), now that the polls are basically locked today.

On Florida, Goat's math is probably wrong on both fronts because there's not enough Republican votes left for them to net anywhere close to 1.5 million on Election Day in Florida. Both parties have cannibalized their vote and maybe 20% of people voting will vote on Election Day max.

Number I've heard kicked around is that Dems think Biden has a 280k-400k lead going into Election Day depending on the NPA split. Going to be pretty close either way.
 
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Wasserman's final map... says there's very little difference between a Biden 400 win and 290 win, so he wouldn't be surprised at all or none of Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina flipping.



Also 538's forecast has Biden as "clearly favored" to win (over 90%), now that the polls are basically locked today.

On Florida, Goat's math is probably wrong on both fronts because there's not enough Republican votes left for them to net anywhere close to 1.5 million on Election Day in Florida. Both parties have cannibalized their vote and maybe 20% of people voting will vote on Election Day max.

Number I've heard kicked around is that Dems think Biden has a 280k-400k lead going into Election Day depending on the NPA split. Going to be pretty close either way.

More on Dave's methodology...

 
I think Florida will be very close, as usual. Miami Dade isn’t going nearly as blue as before, probably the socialist tag is working. We’ll see what seniors turning against Trump due to the virus does to the rest of the state. I never count on Florida. Texas will eventually turn blue. Maybe not this year, but soon.
 
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I am 90% sure that Texas is in the Trump column, but I'm at about 60% sure that Biden will take Florida.

Voter suppression efforts seem not to be affecting Florida much. FL advised people to vote early, mail-in ballots are trackable, and USPS in Florida seems to have been on the ball (my ballot was delivered in under 24 hrs). They are optical scan ballots and are countable very fast. Signature certifation is done in advance, so you can easily find out if there is a problem and go in to correct it.
 
I refuse to predict the loony tunes state of FL.

However, let's look at PA. Forget margins and everything else. The polling averages going into election day for Hillary were 46.3%. For Biden it's 50.3%. He's +4 points over Hillary in a state that Trump won by 44k votes (0.6%)

This is after pollsters are adjusting for education level, which they didn't do in 2016.

Trump winning PA seems to require a massive polling error.
 
When we go to bed tomorrow night, Biden will hold a 254 to 248 lead. With Pennsylvania and Michigan being the only two states still counting votes in enough numbers that they shouldn’t be called.

In Michigan, Biden will either be winning, or close enough, at the end of the night, that it’s a formality that he’ll win Michigan. But if Trump is even or winning, he’ll use it as a call for rigging.

Pennsylvania is gonna be a shit show. And I think could end up going to courts and cause some really bad stuff the next month or so. Trump will be winning at the end of the night. And he’ll claim victory, even though Pennsylvania alone would only put him at 268. It’ll be enough for him to make the “case” for rigging though. And it’ll get ugly. As a week or so later, after counting the absentees finally, Biden will pass him up. Which will play into Trumps claims. And all hell will break loose.

In the end, if he can’t steal it, Trump will lose 290-248.
 
Let me get this straight, if you vote for Trump you’re uneducated. so if you’re educated that makes you a socialis!
Why come them smarter dimocrats can't manage to get they ballots in by election day if theys so smart tho?
 
When we go to bed tomorrow night, Biden will hold a 254 to 248 lead. With Pennsylvania and Michigan being the only two states still counting votes in enough numbers that they shouldn’t be called.

In Michigan, Biden will either be winning, or close enough, at the end of the night, that it’s a formality that he’ll win Michigan. But if Trump is even or winning, he’ll use it as a call for rigging.

Pennsylvania is gonna be a shit show. And I think could end up going to courts and cause some really bad stuff the next month or so. Trump will be winning at the end of the night. And he’ll claim victory, even though Pennsylvania alone would only put him at 268. It’ll be enough for him to make the “case” for rigging though. And it’ll get ugly. As a week or so later, after counting the absentees finally, Biden will pass him up. Which will play into Trumps claims. And all hell will break loose.

In the end, if he can’t steal it, Trump will lose 290-248.


I really hope that it doesn't come down to PA..... because you are correct, it's going to be a long, drawn out mess there. I could easily see it taking a couple of weeks to get final vote totals there. Making it worse, Trump will likely have a early lead there based upon election day results, and then Biden vote totals will start creeping up as mail- in ballots are counted. All the while Trumpers (and Trump himself) will be going crazy claiming fraud.
 
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This thing isn’t going to be close. The pollsters and media have been downplaying the massive blue wave that is rolling across all of America. Indiana is the largest electoral state safely in Trumps column. Biden is going to flirt with 400 e.v
 
More on Dave's methodology...

One of the main guys at RCP (Real Clear Politics, a conservative leaning compiler of polls) did a piece today entitled:

"Biden Will Win. Republicans Should Understand Why."

An excerpt:

"I fully expect these excuses and then some, though I expect the claim that Trump would have won if not for the pandemic to be repeated most of all. In his own telling, to a recent Erie, Pa., crowd, “We had this thing won. We were so far up. We had the greatest economy ever, we had the greatest jobs, the greatest everything. And then we got hit with the plague and I had to go back to work.”

"Nope. Trump was never ahead of Biden in the RCP national average, which has been tracked since September 2019. And according to RCP’s presidential job approval average, Trump has the unique distinction of never holding an approval number higher than 47.3% (forget about 50%) and almost never earning an approval number higher than his disapproval rating. (Trump was above water by just 0.1 points for one day, the very first day RCP began tracking his job approval: Jan. 27, 2017.)"


Doesn't look good, Donald...
 
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One of the main guys at RCP (Real Clear Politics, a conservative leaning compiler of polls) did a piece today entitled:

"Biden Will Win. Republicans Should Understand Why."

An excerpt:

"I fully expect these excuses and then some, though I expect the claim that Trump would have won if not for the pandemic to be repeated most of all. In his own telling, to a recent Erie, Pa., crowd, “We had this thing won. We were so far up. We had the greatest economy ever, we had the greatest jobs, the greatest everything. And then we got hit with the plague and I had to go back to work.”

"Nope. Trump was never ahead of Biden in the RCP national average, which has been tracked since September 2019. And according to RCP’s presidential job approval average, Trump has the unique distinction of never holding an approval number higher than 47.3% (forget about 50%) and almost never earning an approval number higher than his disapproval rating. (Trump was above water by just 0.1 points for one day, the very first day RCP began tracking his job approval: Jan. 27, 2017.)"


Doesn't look good, Donald...
Wow - sorry, but just gotta add a little more from the article quoted above:

"Trump has been weighed down by these numbers despite a growing economy for much of his presidency. The discrepancy between his poll numbers and economic numbers strongly suggests that most Americans have been so repulsed by his divisive, self-serving and just plain mean behavior that they didn’t care how fat their wallets were getting. They just want him gone.

Trump loyalists may blame the coronavirus for his political misfortune. But the truth is the pandemic presented the president with a rare golden opportunity to reverse his fortunes. If anything, his deft handling of a major crisis could have turned his terrible numbers around. Trump could have wiped the slate clean, shelved the insults, worked cooperatively with all governors, elevated experts and consistently encouraged mask-wearing so the nation could safely open up as soon as possible. The only things that prevented him from such responsible crisis management are his own character and his own abilities..."


But read the whole thing for yourselves....coming from a conservative-leaning site, it's quite eye-opening....
 
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Wow - sorry, but just gotta add a little more from the article quoted above:

"Trump has been weighed down by these numbers despite a growing economy for much of his presidency. The discrepancy between his poll numbers and economic numbers strongly suggests that most Americans have been so repulsed by his divisive, self-serving and just plain mean behavior that they didn’t care how fat their wallets were getting. They just want him gone.

Trump loyalists may blame the coronavirus for his political misfortune. But the truth is the pandemic presented the president with a rare golden opportunity to reverse his fortunes. If anything, his deft handling of a major crisis could have turned his terrible numbers around. Trump could have wiped the slate clean, shelved the insults, worked cooperatively with all governors, elevated experts and consistently encouraged mask-wearing so the nation could safely open up as soon as possible. The only things that prevented him from such responsible crisis management are his own character and his own abilities..."


But read the whole thing for yourselves....coming from a conservative (not a "Never-Trumper" as far as I know), it's quite eye-opening....


Trump was unlikely to ever win reelection, but the last 6 months or so have really sealed the deal.
 
Here's my final guess....

315 Biden - 223 Trump


Well, feeling optimistic today, so I'll go with:

Biden 351 - Trump 187


Figure that if Biden can get 85% of the Black vote in NC & GA (which would be worse than Hillary did), he can win both by getting 40% of the white vote (white women - who vote more than white men - apparently don't like Trump very much)....even tho that gives Trump 60% of that vote...

Still worried about:

1. Pennsylvania

2. Rooski IT guys in St. Petersburg (Russia, not Florida) changing the vote totals in the middle of the night on election night. (Heard a Sec of State [Ohio?] say that his state's totals cannot be reached online.....reassuring, but he made it sound like others WERE available to hack.... 🤷‍♂️...) .I know: everyone thinks I'm a crackpot for saying this, but - again - just look at RCP's average of polls on election day in 2016 in Wisconsin and you see that Trump beat his polling average BY SEVEN POINTS (!?!), while HC's stayed the same....hmm....(and that Karl Rove seemed to have quietly guessed [knew?] that it would happen)...HUH?!??
 
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Wow ! Biden takes Tennessee...?!??

(Andy Jackson would roll over in his grave....[tho - come to think of it - Andrew was a Democrat...!])



No.... that's what happens when using a phone on that site. I corrected it
 
Trumps winning Minnesota but losing Tennessee and Louisiana? Lol. Good call there. No wonder you're a Dem.
Good God I've seen homerism but sheesh lol A lot of people in this thread are going to end up looking really stupid.
 
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