Long-Term View

[MikeHoncho69]

While it's fun and games to spend time worrying about whether IU will make the NCAA Tournament, quite frankly, it's a waste of time. IU is currently a program in what's fair to say is a bit of a retooling phase. given that, I didn't expect much from Woodson this season, particularly with his adjustment from the NBA to running a college program and all the things that come with it. What's out of his control is what he inherited, and that was a mess from Archie Miller. No matter how '21-22 panned out, it was always going to be a wash for me.

Those of us on this board can argue/debate/fight about all the reasons IU has been a lackluster program for more than 20 years, but the solution to IU reclaiming its place as a college basketball "blue blood" is fairly simple -- create a specifically-defined culture and consistently recruit players year after year who fit that culture. Use the Gonzaga model as an example. These are the members of Gonzaga's current roster that Mark Few has recruited the last four seasons (player ratings courtesy of 247Sports):

SENIORS
Andrew Nembhard - #23 (transfer)
Rasir Bolton - #206 (transfer)

JUNIORS
Drew Timme - #43
Anton Watson - #48
Martynas Arlauskas - #135

SOPHOMORES
Julian Strawther - #72
Dominick Harris - #74
Ben Gregg - #86

FRESHMEN
Chet Holmgren - #1
Hunter Sallis - #21
Nolan Hickman - #33
Kaden Perry - #57

What IU needs is to define its culture (I believe Woodson has established this) and consistently recruit players who fit that culture year after year (he is on his way with Tamar Bates, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Kaleb Banks, etc.). I'm willing to give Woodson 2 to 3 more seasons before I would be willing to make any true judgments on his ability to run the program.

 

[Hatchets7times]

Imo..All those who say .
Wait till he gets his own..That's just it..
Your never going to get all the guys you want .
Indiana isnt that sexy of a stoping point anymore.
So Woodson's evaluation of plan B or C player's needs to be damn good..
Next yr cant be .500 or he'll loose a bunch of alumni and fans ..Many were meh on him from the beginning...
He absolutely has to get home runs in the portal ..
Or the Hoosiers are looking at 10th to the bottom in the Big..imo
I'm with him for one more..But it needs to be better than this yr..

 

[bailey777]

Imo..All those who say .
Wait till he gets his own..That's just it..
Your never going to get all the guys you want .
Indiana isnt that sexy of a stoping point anymore.
So Woodson's evaluation of plan B or C player's needs to be damn good..
Next yr cant be .500 or he'll loose a bunch of alumni and fans ..Many were meh on him from the beginning...
He absolutely has to get home runs in the portal ..
Or the Hoosiers are looking at 10th to the bottom in the Big..imo
I'm with him for one more..But it needs to be better than this yr..

If Archie had not landed Romeo I wonder how excited people would have been for this second season. I mean really we were all so excited because of landing him and alot of us myself included were delusional and thought we had a legit top 15 team in Archies 2nd year. Turned out not to be the case but winning or gettting top flight recruits is what brings excitment early on. We have done this give the guy four years to get his recruits in here so many times now people are just burnded out. So yeah that is what it may take but people will likely not be excited until we actual win or land two or three five stars in one class type of thing.

 

[TomEric4756]

Given the poor defense played by our underclassmen, next season could definitely be worse,
if 4 of the starting 5 don’t come back. Assuming the standard of performance should be better than 18-12 today, regardless of the talent on the roster tomorrow, just doesn’t make sense. Let’s see who shows up for summer conditioning, and the start of fall practice first.

Coach Woodson and Coach Fife didn’t shoot 25% from 3, all those games, (and when they played).
25% * 3 = 0.75 Pts/Shot << 45% * 2 = 0.9 PTs/shot < 35% * 3 = 1.05 PTs/shot.
With our performances some games, there were games IU should have never taken a 3 pt shot,
considering the expected value of the results.

Seeing X playing under control for a whole season should be amazing next year.

 

[Davehack]

Given the poor defense played by our underclassmen, next season could definitely be worse,
if 4 of the starting 5 don’t come back. Assuming the standard of performance should be better than 18-12 today, regardless of the talent on the roster tomorrow, just doesn’t make sense. Let’s see who shows up for summer conditioning, and the start of fall practice first.

Coach Woodson and Coach Fife didn’t shoot 25% from 3, all those games, (and when they played).
25% * 3 = 0.75 Pts/Shot << 45% * 2 = 0.9 PTs/shot < 35% * 3 = 1.05 PTs/shot.
With our performances some games, there were games IU should have never taken a 3 pt shot,
considering the expected value of the results.

Seeing X playing under control for a whole season should be amazing next year.

Woody did not hit one 3 pointer his entire career at IU.

 

[TomEric4756]

Woody did not hit one 3 pointer his entire career at IU.

True … but he was a deadeye perimeter shooter.

 

[Harry Hondo]

True … but he was a deadeye perimeter shooter.

IIRC, he liked the glass, too (as in bank shots).

 

[BusdriverE]

I always want to wait until yr 3 to start downplaying the coach and look for little things like attitude of team, how much fight do they have in them (remember all the diving for loose balls early on?) And how do they finish the season. I've seen good signs as well players getting better as year went on so my outlook on CMW is still good, just hope it stays that way cuz I'd hate to see it turn ugly against a former star

 

[kurt cloverdales]

While it's fun and games to spend time worrying about whether IU will make the NCAA Tournament, quite frankly, it's a waste of time. IU is currently a program in what's fair to say is a bit of a retooling phase. given that, I didn't expect much from Woodson this season, particularly with his adjustment from the NBA to running a college program and all the things that come with it. What's out of his control is what he inherited, and that was a mess from Archie Miller. No matter how '21-22 panned out, it was always going to be a wash for me.

Those of us on this board can argue/debate/fight about all the reasons IU has been a lackluster program for more than 20 years, but the solution to IU reclaiming its place as a college basketball "blue blood" is fairly simple -- create a specifically-defined culture and consistently recruit players year after year who fit that culture. Use the Gonzaga model as an example. These are the members of Gonzaga's current roster that Mark Few has recruited the last four seasons (player ratings courtesy of 247Sports):

SENIORS
Andrew Nembhard - #23 (transfer)
Rasir Bolton - #206 (transfer)

JUNIORS
Drew Timme - #43
Anton Watson - #48
Martynas Arlauskas - #135

SOPHOMORES
Julian Strawther - #72
Dominick Harris - #74
Ben Gregg - #86

FRESHMEN
Chet Holmgren - #1
Hunter Sallis - #21
Nolan Hickman - #33
Kaden Perry - #57

What IU needs is to define its culture (I believe Woodson has established this) and consistently recruit players who fit that culture year after year (he is on his way with Tamar Bates, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Kaleb Banks, etc.). I'm willing to give Woodson 2 to 3 more seasons before I would be willing to make any true judgments on his ability to run the program.

Indiana had plenty of talent this year, we should have made the tournament this year. Played a 30-game schedule only 2x all season where we beat handily, problem is those 2 teams stand in front of us. Woodson lost 3 or 4 games this year at the 12-8-minute marks in the game. Too often he had Durr out there with 2 or 3 other non-scores and race and Tracye on the bench together. There is no way in hell next year's roster will have more talent than this years, So how do you expect better results?

 

[BaxterIU]

Woody did not hit one 3 pointer his entire career at IU.

True, but it should also be said that Woody did not miss a single 3 pointer in his IU career.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Woody did not hit one 3 pointer his entire career at IU.

Most here won’t know that’s because there was no 3 point rule during his years at IU.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

IIRC, he liked the glass, too (as in bank shots).

Not as much as Ted Kitchel. He was one of the best shooters IU has ever had and he used the backboard extensively.

 

[TR32]

A number of things here. First of all, IU has struggled with coaching above it's talent level, which is what Knight always did. They missed the tourney this year instead of finishing 4th or 5th which they could have without some pretty bad finishes. Coaching was a key reason they had some bad finishes. Poor shooting aside, IU didn't have much of an offense at all, and that matters in crunch time, particularly at the end of the season .

Next, don't use the Gonzaga model. Use the Indiana model. Gonzales would not be what they are if they played in the Big Ten every year. They get great recruits in a weak conference and now they compete for Final Fours annually. But it wouldn't have happened in the Big Ten.

A "consistent culture " generally requires winning. The coach has to carry the load to get it going. By the middle of next year, Woodson will need to be showing some returns or he will not get top 50 kids to a perennial mediocre program.

Finally, it's easier said than done. Teams need a strong style of play and great players, facilities and coaches. Momentum plays a big role. IU has none.

 

[TommyCracker]

A number of things here. First of all, IU has struggled with coaching above it's talent level, which is what Knight always did. They missed the tourney this year instead of finishing 4th or 5th which they could have without some pretty bad finishes. Coaching was a key reason they had some bad finishes. Poor shooting aside, IU didn't have much of an offense at all, and that matters in crunch time, particularly at the end of the season .

Next, don't use the Gonzaga model. Use the Indiana model. Gonzales would not be what they are if they played in the Big Ten every year. They get great recruits in a weak conference and now they compete for Final Fours annually. But it wouldn't have happened in the Big Ten.

A "consistent culture " generally requires winning. The coach has to carry the load to get it going. By the middle of next year, Woodson will need to be showing some returns or he will not get top 50 kids to a perennial mediocre program.

Finally, it's easier said than done. Teams need a strong style of play and great players, facilities and coaches. Momentum plays a big role. IU has none.

Another thing that adds to the woes is I don't think it's far reaching to say the conference has much more parity.

In the old days there were less teams and true bottom dwellers. With the rise of Rutger's, there isn't any automatic wins, at least in comparison to the old days when Wisconsin and Northwestern were beyond terrible and 4 guaranteed wins.

Which is why I'm really concerned about this season. Gone is the new coach hire energy and face it, Woodson is older and unknown on the college game.

He really needed to have a strong year and then bust through.

He didn't have that.

Yikes!

 

[Cavanagh]

Another thing that adds to the woes is I don't think it's far reaching to say the conference has much more parity.

In the old days there were less teams and true bottom dwellers. With the rise of Rutger's, there isn't any automatic wins, at least in comparison to the old days when Wisconsin and Northwestern were beyond terrible and 4 guaranteed wins.

Which is why I'm really concerned about this season. Gone is the new coach hire energy and face it, Woodson is older and unknown on the college game.

He really needed to have a strong year and then bust through.

He didn't have that.

Yikes!

I agree, but the difference one game and getting in the tourney is just massive. If we make the tourney enthusiasm is high going into next year. The importance of making the tourney can not be stated.

For example, if we were the last 4 in and won that first game, IU fans would be feeling some joy for the first time in 6 years. That’s a long time. That feeling can do wonders for the soul.

beat f.ucking meat chicken

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

A number of things here. First of all, IU has struggled with coaching above it's talent level, which is what Knight always did. They missed the tourney this year instead of finishing 4th or 5th which they could have without some pretty bad finishes. Coaching was a key reason they had some bad finishes. Poor shooting aside, IU didn't have much of an offense at all, and that matters in crunch time, particularly at the end of the season .

Next, don't use the Gonzaga model. Use the Indiana model. Gonzales would not be what they are if they played in the Big Ten every year. They get great recruits in a weak conference and now they compete for Final Fours annually. But it wouldn't have happened in the Big Ten.

A "consistent culture " generally requires winning. The coach has to carry the load to get it going. By the middle of next year, Woodson will need to be showing some returns or he will not get top 50 kids to a perennial mediocre program.

Finally, it's easier said than done. Teams need a strong style of play and great players, facilities and coaches. Momentum plays a big role. IU has none.

While I agree with a lot of what you said here, please specify what Woodson did/didn't do that led to the bad finishes.

 

[UTFO]

While it's fun and games to spend time worrying about whether IU will make the NCAA Tournament, quite frankly, it's a waste of time. IU is currently a program in what's fair to say is a bit of a retooling phase.

That's fair.

lol

 

[UTFO]

While I agree with a lot of what you said here, please specify what Woodson did/didn't do that led to the bad finishes.

Objection.

The buck stops w the coach.

Just like the buck stops w the President, CEO, etc.

It's not up to fans who don't get paid handsomely coaching b-ball to explain b-ball.

Besides, losing a 29 point lead (for example) is res ipsa loquitur on the coach.

 

[Al Bino]

While I agree with a lot of what you said here, please specify what Woodson did/didn't do that led to the bad finishes.

Dude, you know what the answer will be. I have seen it on here dozens of times from various posters.
His lack of TO's.
His bad line ups in crunch time.
Why was X in and Y wasn't.
Not wearing his suit. Etc., Etc., Etc.

 

[.Gerdis]

Not wearing his suit.

😂

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

Objection.

The buck stops w the coach.

Just like the buck stops w the President, CEO, etc.

It's not up to fans who don't get paid handsomely coaching b-ball to explain b-ball.

Besides, losing a 29 point lead (for example) is res ipsa loquitur on the coach.

The buck may stop with the coach. And criticism of Woodson/staff is fair game.

But if you're going to assert that "coaching is a key reason", shouldn't you not only be able to specify WHAT the coach did that led to the bad finishes but also what he/his staff SHOULD HAVE done?

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

😂

At least wear a suit jacket . . . 😉

 

[kunkrj]

A number of things here. First of all, IU has struggled with coaching above it's talent level, which is what Knight always did. They missed the tourney this year instead of finishing 4th or 5th which they could have without some pretty bad finishes. Coaching was a key reason they had some bad finishes. Poor shooting aside, IU didn't have much of an offense at all, and that matters in crunch time, particularly at the end of the season .

Next, don't use the Gonzaga model. Use the Indiana model. Gonzales would not be what they are if they played in the Big Ten every year. They get great recruits in a weak conference and now they compete for Final Fours annually. But it wouldn't have happened in the Big Ten.

A "consistent culture " generally requires winning. The coach has to carry the load to get it going. By the middle of next year, Woodson will need to be showing some returns or he will not get top 50 kids to a perennial mediocre program.

Finally, it's easier said than done. Teams need a strong style of play and great players, facilities and coaches. Momentum plays a big role. IU has none.

Poor shooting aside????? That is the main ingredient in this teams problems.

 

[.Gerdis]

At least wear a suit jacket . . . 😉

Or perhaps a red sweater he can pull up over his belly every time he feels the team is playing poorly……VBG

 

[kkott]

Objection.

The buck stops w the coach.

Just like the buck stops w the President, CEO, etc.

It's not up to fans who don't get paid handsomely coaching b-ball to explain b-ball.

Besides, losing a 29 point lead (for example) is res ipsa loquitur on the coach.

Man, keeps getting worse and worse. Think we led by 22 at WI and did lose that lead, and 26 vs MN, but held on. We don't need to make it worse than it was, the real stats are bad enough! Don't recall us being up by 29 in a game that ever got close. Were we?

 

[Paterfamilias]

Another thing that adds to the woes is I don't think it's far reaching to say the conference has much more parity.

In the old days there were less teams and true bottom dwellers. With the rise of Rutger's, there isn't any automatic wins, at least in comparison to the old days when Wisconsin and Northwestern were beyond terrible and 4 guaranteed wins.

Which is why I'm really concerned about this season. Gone is the new coach hire energy and face it, Woodson is older and unknown on the college game.

He really needed to have a strong year and then bust through.

He didn't have that.

Yikes!

I think the Big Ten has pretty much always had parity far beyond that of the other major conferences. Individual seasons might lack parity at times, but there is a historic ebb and flow of teams rising and falling.

Over the weekend, I was looking at sports-reference and found some interesting historical stats. If you go back to the 1949 season (first for the AP Poll), then take out the Knight years (1972-2000) IU only comes in 6th in the conference (ahead of Iowa, Michigan, Minny and NW), but only OSU, Illinois and MSU have more than a 5 game lead over IU.

Since Bobby Leonard hit the free throw to take down the Jayhawks in 53, IU is only 338-337 vs Big Ten opponents (BTT included) after you take out the Knight years.

This is just an historically tough league, which I think can make it difficult to evaluate a coach based on one year. Most nights you are facing teams with pretty well established cultures/identities. Year 1 for a new staff is baptism by fire in the Big 10. It helps if you are stepping into a good situation where you are going to build on an already established culture.

That said, I'm super disappointed with the way this year turned out so far, but I'm still more optimistic than pessimistic about the future

 

[.Gerdis]

Poor shooting aside????? That is the main ingredient in this teams problems.

Overall our defense has been very good this season. However, we’ve had some late game defensive breakdowns that have hurt us.

our turnovers have been reduced as the season has progressed, but once again, it’s been a problem in key moments late in games.

there is no secret that we have had trouble closing, and certainly shooting has been a big problem, but there are some other factors as well. For a team with a thin margin for error, a couple of key turnovers, missed free throws, or defensive breakdowns can hurt, and put even more pressure on our shooters.

 

[VanPastorMan]

Woody did not hit one 3 pointer his entire career at IU.

I have thought before about players who played before the 3 pt shot and wondered how many points they would have if the long shots they actually made counted for 3. Take Alford for instance who only had the 3 for one yr. Would he still be the scoring leader in the B1G and IU if he had the 3 pt shot all four?

 

[Lucy01]

If we hit our free throws, we would be in the tournament.

 

[turney333]

Overall our defense has been very good this season. However, we’ve had some late game defensive breakdowns that have hurt us.

our turnovers have been reduced as the season has progressed, but once again, it’s been a problem in key moments late in games.

there is no secret that we have had trouble closing, and certainly shooting has been a big problem, but there are some other factors as well. For a team with a thin margin for error, a couple of key turnovers, missed free throws, or defensive breakdowns can hurt, and put even more pressure on our shooters.

One thing I have noticed is that plays coming out of time outs either work great or immediately fall apart. It seems like if the play is defended well, the players panic and try to force the play, leading to a turnover or forced bad shot.

I'm not sure if its Woodson not clearly articulating a 2nd or 3rd option, or if its players afraid to make the decision to go to another option.

 

[MikeHoncho69]

A number of things here. First of all, IU has struggled with coaching above it's talent level, which is what Knight always did. They missed the tourney this year instead of finishing 4th or 5th which they could have without some pretty bad finishes. Coaching was a key reason they had some bad finishes. Poor shooting aside, IU didn't have much of an offense at all, and that matters in crunch time, particularly at the end of the season .

Next, don't use the Gonzaga model. Use the Indiana model. Gonzales would not be what they are if they played in the Big Ten every year. They get great recruits in a weak conference and now they compete for Final Fours annually. But it wouldn't have happened in the Big Ten.

A "consistent culture " generally requires winning. The coach has to carry the load to get it going. By the middle of next year, Woodson will need to be showing some returns or he will not get top 50 kids to a perennial mediocre program.

Finally, it's easier said than done. Teams need a strong style of play and great players, facilities and coaches. Momentum plays a big role. IU has none.

I agree with you completely on the need for momentum, which begins with winning. In order to get that ball rolling, the program needs to have a solid foundation. That's where culture comes in. Woodson gets all the credit in the world for instilling his own culture of hustle and hard work. Those two components were missing with Archie.

The key next season will be incorporating a toughness and belief in the team to be able to win the close games down the stretch that they couldn't quite finish this year.

In terms of the Gonzaga model, I simply believe it's an excellent template to follow in terms of recruiting. Find kids who fit your culture and stack those recruiting classes on top of one another so you have a good mix of veteran players with young players.

 

[turney333]

If we hit our free throws, we would be in the tournament.

Early in the season, FTs did cost us some games, but interestingly, over the last 4 losses, IU was shooting 78% from the line

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Early in the season, FTs did cost us some games, but interestingly, over the last 4 losses, IU was shooting 78% from the line

Bad teams always find a way to lose.

Early in the season everyone said cut the TOs and make some FTs and we win games. It's always something.

About 2/3 of the way through the season, I heard TJD doing an interview the day after a tough loss. He was essentially asked "What do you guys need to do to finish games?'. He said something like 'Well it's tough because this group of players has never won anything'. He wasn't upset or being snarky....just matter of fact. Yikes.

 

[.Gerdis]

Bad teams always find a way to lose.

Early in the season everyone said cut the TOs and make some FTs and we win games. It's always something.

There’s something to that point.

a sports psychologist might help (and I am serious). It’s been an issue for years. Whether they expect to lose, are relieved to lose, etc.., it’s clearly an issue.

I remember when the Cubs lost that playoff game when Bartman (fan in stands) caught that foul ball. I told a bunch of Cubs fans that I thought the Cubs were relieved to have had that happen, that it gave them an excuse to lose. Of course they thought I was nuts, but who knows. The mind is a powerful thing: for good or bad.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

There’s something to that point.

a sports psychologist might help (and I am serious). It’s been an issue for years. Whether they expect to lose, are relieved to lose, etc.., it’s clearly an issue.

I remember when the Cubs lost that playoff game when Bartman (fan in stands) caught that foul ball. I told a bunch of Cubs fans that I thought the Cubs were relieved to have had that happen, that it gave them an excuse to lose. Of course they thought I was nuts, but who knows. The mind is a powerful thing: for good or bad.

I like Woody. I wonder if maybe the team would have responded better to a tougher approach. I almost always listened to his post game interviews. He must have said "It's my job to get them over the hump" 10 times. Maybe TOO patient & understanding? Knight was more like "I'll put you bastards in position to win the game if you execute the plan. The rest is up to you. Sack up".

 

[turney333]

There’s something to that point.

a sports psychologist might help (and I am serious). It’s been an issue for years. Whether they expect to lose, are relieved to lose, etc.., it’s clearly an issue.

I remember when the Cubs lost that playoff game when Bartman (fan in stands) caught that foul ball. I told a bunch of Cubs fans that I thought the Cubs were relieved to have had that happen, that it gave them an excuse to lose. Of course they thought I was nuts, but who knows. The mind is a powerful thing: for good or bad.

I do think that players have been scared to take shots down the stretch, and as a result have been less motivated to get open causing the offense to stagnate. In particular, Race who has been one of our most consistent offensive threats has frequently disappeared late in games.

 

[DANC]

Not as much as Ted Kitchel. He was one of the best shooters IU has ever had and he used the backboard extensively.

Then you never saw Woodson play. He used the glass much more often than Kitchel, who was a lights-out shooter from the corner.

 

[.Gerdis]

I like Woody. I wonder if maybe the team would have responded better to a tougher approach. I almost always listened to his post game interviews. He must have said "It's my job to get them over the hump" 10 times. Maybe TOO patient & understanding? Knight was more like "I'll put you bastards in position to win the game if you execute the plan. The rest is up to you. Sack up".

The mindset with Knight seemed to be that he prepared them, but that anything he could test them with was tougher than anything they could face in a game.

when you continue to mention this hump that needs to be surmounted, it begins to take the form of Mount Everest in everyone’s mind.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

Then you never saw Woodson play. He used the glass much more often than Kitchel, who was a lights-out shooter from the corner.

Of course I did - all for years. His senior year was my Freshman year and I saw him in person when he wasn't hurt because I never missed a home game. I remember Woodson using the glass a lot too, but he was out for a lot of his senior year so didn't get to see him play as much that year. Hell of a run to the Big Ten championship after he got back from back surgery. I saw Kitchel play a lot more since he graduated same year as I did so he made a bigger impression on me as far as banking in his jumpers. Loved to watch both of them play.

 

[.Gerdis]

I do think that players have been scared to take shots down the stretch, and as a result have been less motivated to get open causing the offense to stagnate. In particular, Race who has been one of our most consistent offensive threats has frequently disappeared late in games.

Yes, we need players that relish that last second shot (see Harper jr. In our game)