Wow. No one beats Trump at ANYthing !!The criminal activity was a bit offputting, relative to Obama.
I don't have the final tally, but this was the scorecard in mid 2000
Biden's speech...
- Thread starter Bloom.
- Start date
Thank you!! You proved my point again!!·
Biden is beyond toxic at this point. Nobody wants to be seen with him.
Why would Kamala distance herself from President Biden as did Abrams? Beyond my ken.
Quote Tweet
Tim Perry
· 4h
.@VP Kamala Harris' office confirms that she will not join President Biden when he meets with Senate Democrats for a last effort push for voting rights later this afternoon. A reminder that Harris was tapped to lead the administration's efforts on voting rights back in June.
When someone comments negatively about Trump you have absolutely no defense of Trump !! Instead, you automatically just post a criticism of Biden.
Who cares? Trump is your guy but you can't explain why Trump called McConnell a loser (which is what I posted about).
Thank you for supporting my post about Trump.
Saw that. What a psycho.
Maybe he's doing it to show Russia and China how unstable he is, hoping to frighten them into submission.
Dems thinking they could change Manchin’ s or Sinema’s mind was laughable all along
This may not be 100% but not far from the truth. Today could not have gone any worse for Biden. I really do think he thought he could change the minds of Sinema and Manchin.
@Maximus_4EVR 🌵
FYI For those of you observing, Biden spoke at the Capitol and the signs of defeat were written all over his face and in his words.
It's all over. His Approval will drop into the 20s and talk of a resignation will become more common place.
SHEPMJS
@shepmjs
·
1h
I "may" have to rescind "I am never wrong." I said Biden could not get below 30% approval.
Now they are reporting that Manchin and Sinema are going to the WH to meet with Biden.
Manchin will definitely change his mind.
Good grief
So this is the lead headline on MSNBC. I took a look out of curiosity do they honestly believe this or are they just playing to the audience? I mean this thing is dead as a doornail but I could see how you would be fooled if all you read was their site.
The Democrats' plan gets past one of two likely GOP filibusters without changing the rule
Chuck Schumer's filibuster dodge for voting rights just may work
The Democrats' plan gets past one of two likely GOP filibusters without changing the ruleWhy do you think Manchin will change his mind? He stayed true to his word on Build Back Dumber.
Your naive as f*ck and completely clueless. You keep on though trusting the media and the government. I could write and essay and also show video after video not just about the 6th, but all the people who were charged just for being there on the 6th, did not get trials, were arrested and held in horrible bug infested jails, homes raided at gun point with kids in the house, taken away, and now on lists. Just for f*cking being there and not even inside the capital!!!!! Guess what? You will call it lies, conspiracy, and you will argue. There is no arguing with you. I put up a post yesterday that went unanswered that shows just how the government works, who's behind it and how utterly evil things can turn out. Historical facts that most here who study history know. I'm sorry but its here and happening now. Good Luck to you.The point just goes right over your head. It's the timeline and location of the video...
You mentioned your friend was wary of people he saw leaving for the Capitol while blubberbutt Trump was still speaking. I posted Klepper's video showing people he ENCOUNTERED who were making their way to the Capitol while Trump was still speaking, including a very obvious group of Proud Boys nearly marching in lock step...
You initmated that your friend suspected some sort of "set-up", I posted an actual video of people who appeared to be Trump supporters who for whatever reason were in the vanguard of people heading to the Capitol. Again everything in Klepper's video is happening away from Trump's speech while Trump's speech is on going...
Now if you think these people are "antifa plants" or FBI agents, I'd say that's loony, but whatever...
I did think it was instructional that during the discussion of Ray Epps, that mas chimed in that Epps AND Stew Rhodes were "Feds"...You'd think if Rhodes were a "Fed" he'd find away to avoid being charged with the most serious crime to be levelled against any Jan 6 rioter to date...
Seditious conspiracy: 11 Oath Keepers charged in Jan. 6 riot
Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the far-right Oath Keepers militia group, and 10 other members or associates have been charged with seditious conspiracy in the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol, authorities said Thursday. Despite hundreds of charges already brought in the year since...www.yahoo.com
Likely more it is a narrative he wants to be true so he goes with it. He wants all the Trump supporters to be labeled terrorists so I would not even bother arguing with him you are not going to change his mind.
An oldy but a goody. I still cannot believe people bought his total bs.
The former vice president urged Americans to “come together and heal.”
“We need to stop treating our opponents as enemies, we are not enemies,” he said. “What brings us together as Americans is so much stronger than anything that can tear us apart.”
Biden added that while he and running mate Harris are campaigning as Democrats he “will govern as an American president.”
“There will be no red states and blue states when we win. Just the United States of America,” Biden said.
The former vice president urged Americans to “come together and heal.”
“We need to stop treating our opponents as enemies, we are not enemies,” he said. “What brings us together as Americans is so much stronger than anything that can tear us apart.”
Biden added that while he and running mate Harris are campaigning as Democrats he “will govern as an American president.”
“There will be no red states and blue states when we win. Just the United States of America,” Biden said.
I’m old enough to remember when all Republicans were racists. Then we were terrorists . Then faster than you could say WTF, the GOP became Jefferson Davis fans. The Biden/Democratic meltdown is proceeding at light speed. I can hardly wait for the next escalation after the President of the Confederacy.
Last edited:
Guess who voted to restore Jefferson Davis's citizenship..... under a Southern Democrat President.
Biden slams Jefferson Davis -- despite past vote to restore Confederate leader's US citizenship
Decades before President Biden asked senators on Tuesday if they were "on the side of Abraham Lincoln or Jefferson Davis?" he voted to restore the U.S. citizenship of the president of the Confederacy, according to a report.
Mitt is right both about Biden's speech and Biden missing the boat on expectations
www.yahoo.com
Sen. Mitt Romney says Biden was elected 'to stop the crazy' and argues that voters weren't asking him 'to transform America'
"Things are not going well," Romney said Sunday of President Joe Biden's tenure. "And the president needs to stop and reset."
Yep, it was inevitable. The Dems play hardball. Sic'ing the IRS on Conservative groups; Using the FBI to take out your political opponent. Nothing is off limits.
The beatings will continue until morale improves.....
These bastards will receive no mercy when the 'Great Accounting' goes down.
Read the full Twatter thread......
Pure products of the USA educational disaster...
Like borrowing a Hundred Grand to get a degree in African Studies...
Finds no employment opportunities, whatsoever...
Blames everyone but himself...
Wants the debt washed away...
Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA) Sunday on MSNBC accused former President Donald Trump and his supporters of wanting to see “a civil war in this country.”
Waters said, “This is a very difficult time for Democrats, for this country. Of course, we have Republicans who are basically following Trump and the kind of division that he’s causing among not only people of color but the kind of divisions he’s causing between the so-called haves and the have nots.”
Lol meanwhile bidens busy calling people racists and terrorists
Waters said, “This is a very difficult time for Democrats, for this country. Of course, we have Republicans who are basically following Trump and the kind of division that he’s causing among not only people of color but the kind of divisions he’s causing between the so-called haves and the have nots.”
Lol meanwhile bidens busy calling people racists and terrorists
I’m a fan of Crenshaw.
He fought and bled for America.
He’s a steadfast champion of US global leadership; isolationist “end muh endless warz!!” Sloganeers hate him for making the case for a strong American foreign policy in a way that wins hearts and minds.
I like him, too.
I heard recently that he was one of the Congresspeople who gained the most in the stock market last year. I don't have a source for it, but it was on Fox news, so I know it had to be true.... lol
Yep but it appears the great UNITER has left the country more divided than ever. Good job old Joe you sold a bill of goods to alot of people and they bought it big time. He was going to heal the wounds of division he said. LOL!!!!!!!!
President Joe Biden’s first year in office has been a failure, according to a majority of voters who say the Democrat has left the country more divided than when he was inaugurated.
A new national telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports finds that just 12% of Likely U.S. voters rate Biden’s first year in office Very Successful, while another 26% say his first year as president has been Somewhat Successful. Ten percent (10%) believe Biden has been Somewhat Unsuccessful during his first year in office, while 50% rate his first year Very Unsuccessful. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on January 12-13, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
You are stating that 2020 represented a seismic shift in predicable patterns, or one result equals a trend ("Bellwethers" aren't bellwethers"), yet you asserted in the post I replied to that NV and VA are reflective i.e. "new bellwhethers", which I guess you are conceding now because you dropped that argument in your reply. They represented a significant amount of my response (in the case of VA this is quirky since it traditionally lags the presidential results in the governor's race, and did again in 2021). Since we agree now that NV and VA aren't the new bellwethers, let's move on to what 2020 represents.
Noting also, you didn't answer my main question, does your analysis predict that 2024 will align to a 2012 statistical model, or 2020?
You somewhat imply 2020, but I am on record as saying that 2012 will hold again in 2024. My position remains that 2020 is a statistical outlier, and in some counties >3 standard deviations versus predicted mean were witnessed (all of which Biden won in a miraculous comeback). An outlier by itself, doesn't mean fraud/stolen, but the numbers are the numbers and for you to suggest it was explained statistically is academically deficient if not completely dishonest (meaning I find it doubtful if the results went the other way and the orange guy won, you would be making the same argument in support of the numbers today).
You miss the elephant in the room, Biden pulled over 33%, or 21 million more total votes than Obama while winning 364 fewer counties than Obama did. You aren't working from a statistical model and bridging each variable. At the end, your conclusion is simply a restatement of your premise, i.e. Circular. To break the circle, what is needed is a county by county analysis.
Any county by county analysis must be begin with an assessment of population within the county then reduce it to eligible voters. The 2008 and 2012 elections will reflect the 2010 census, 2020 will be right on the 2020 census, and 2016 can be interpolated. Within those, the first demographic that matters is age, people under 18 can't vote, and citizenship status, percentage of the total can't vote because they aren't citizens. Finally, there's people over the median life expectancy. Do registration totals for those people exceed the Census? Any outliers here pollute the population (statistical reference not population as a census count) for any analysis. Samples drawn from within, when sweeping assessments are made as we both have done in regard to demographic percentages won't be valid if this isn't clean. Your agreement is based on the assumption that the population is not polluted while mine suggests it is, but that it is open to debate. Here's why.
Maricopa is the only one that grew its base of eligible voters. Wayne MI, Milwaukee WI, and Philadelphia PA have fallen since 2010. Fulton GA, I'm not sure, but believe it is either even or slightly lower. However, even in Fulton or Maricopa, the total votes cast 2012 vs 2020 is inexplicable, and the demographic shifts you allege are not reflective within those counties. Also the Latin American vote which is equally if not more important in Texas and Florida than the black vote, did not go Biden's way, if they did then FL would have gone to Biden aligning to the trend set long ago - the presidency goes as FL goes (also precincts within Maricopa that are heavily LatAm did not go for Biden but they did for Obama).
To your points:
"Partisan polarization is making red areas redder and blue areas bluer. Democrats are competitive in fewer counties, but the counties they dominate (largely urban ones), they dominate more than ever before."
The Red/Blue analysis is sloppy as the underlying demographics and party affiliation drives that result, hence overall Red/Blue is auto-correlated as is the presidential result to those underlying factors. What you describe wasn't the case in Ohio (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus) and Florida (Miami), there are others, and the demographics and underlying party affiliations are consistent across all urban areas and across time. The outliers, where Biden outperformed Obama massively in total votes and % or vote are restricted to the few counties he needed to win. For Biden to succeed exactly where he did at exactly the time he needed to, must be driven by some other factor. Otherwise, OH and FL fall his way and we aren't having this discussion.
"Demographic shifts are dramatically changing the color of former bellwethers. Vigo County used to be a bellwether because it's combination of college, blue collar, white collar, rural, and union voters made it a very broad cross-section of the voting public, and it was very likely to follow the overall national trends closely. That's no longer true, as changes in union membership and other demographic shifts have made Vigo much redder than the average county."
You are speculating that Vigo is no longer a statistical cohort. The truth is it actually was in every respect except the outcome in the presidential election and senate races in the same states that determined the presidential election. The overall results of 2020 were in the GOPs favor in every other respect, and the trends matched prior years. Specifically to this, "demographic shifts have made Vigo much redder than the average county". If that were true Biden would have won more than 509 counties and performed closer to Obama in total counties won. Plus your statement here contradicts what you said in your first point. Either Vigo remains representative of "the average county"and any shifts there align to shifts in what is an average, or only a few urban counties are now bellwethers and Vigo is not one of them, but not both. (I have taken a position, Vigo is representative as shown by total counties won and that Biden only won 1 traditionally bellwether. You've attempted to rationalize away Vigo, but what about the 17 others that Biden didn't win that Obama did? Or, just state what the new bellwethers are and why those exact counties are bellwethers, or an appropriate statistical cohort.)
Biden dramatically outperformed a number of down-ticket candidates in a way that Obama did not. For some reason, you demand that I don't mention Trump, so I'll have to word it like this: Obama wasn't facing an opponent with the same handicap Biden was. This allowed Biden to win in some areas that still voted against other Democrats.
If what you are suggesting here was true, then GOP would control the Senate by a 1 seat majority with James (MI). Oddly, the black vote in terms or raw numbers overwhelmingly supported Biden and Peters in Wayne County Michigan more than they supported Obama, all while losing population from '12 to '20.
Biden's opponent beat Hillary in 2016, garnering 74 million votes in 2020. The 74 million total was 14 million more than Obama in 2012, or roughly a 25% increase. The same candidate increased the percentage of black vote more than any other GOP candidate in the last 5 elections. Oddly, in Wayne Co MI a black senate candidate also lost, albeit by a smaller margin than Biden's opponent. It was also a miraculous comeback by his opponent. The numbers show that there was no handicap and the statistical outliers extended to key Senate races as well (aligning to my rebuttal of your second point).
Biden might not have done quite as well as Obama with voters of color, but he did slightly better with white voters, and his advantage with minority voters was still sizable, which led to a lot more votes overall, as the % of the vote that was white dropped from 72% to 67% from 2012 to 2020. This combination of more minority votes plus a significantly smaller handicap among white voters equates to a several million vote shift from R to D between the two elections.
This is why I asked about the change in registrations between 2016 and 2020, particularly in the few key swing states. Increases in R registrations relative to D registrations over that time period would indicate that the R candidate was trending positive as he was the incumbent, making a flip on election day unlikely (especially true if there was a major differential of total votes received in 2020 vs 2016 by the same guy) . I also asked what was the underlying growth of available voters as the combination of the two is the indicator and at the level of granularity required to predict a given county. If you could show that shift, then your case for "Bellwethers aren't bellwethers" would have some juice.
What you have above is a backward analysis where you are taking national aggregates and breaking them into county level buckets as if the national aggregate is the statistical cohort not the county trend for the last 128 years or so. Even on that basis, you failed to apply that against all similar counties. If you did, then you would predict that OH and FL go to Biden (like they did Obama), plus your analysis of the white vote (and women below) would have reflected in Iowa shifting it to Biden as well. Even by your analysis on this point, 2020 was an outlier, but 2012 was representative.
Women. After Hillary's surprisingly poor performance among women, there were questions about whether they could really be counted on by Dems moving forward, but Biden not only made those losses back, he went beyond, outperforming Obama by a full 2 points.
Same as above. Women vote everywhere. This metric would predict that Biden dominates total counties, even exceeding Obama's. More importantly the vote would have been about even or favoring Biden at the end of the night on Nov 3 if your analysis was valid. Instead Biden was a long way behind.
Last edited:
You are misrepresenting how statistical trends work. For example, your suggestion that the trends I identify can't be accurate because they would require specific counties to have turned out differently is faulty. Trends are not universal. There is still variation in both directions within the trend, and outliers can go entirely in the other direction. Originally, you asked for an explanation of how Biden did what he did. I gave it to you. You don't like it, for whatever reason. Perhaps you are determined to disbelieve that he could have actually won on the up-and-up, but he did, and I described how.
Last edited:
Originally, you asked for an explanation of how Biden did what I did.
???? To quote Bowlmania , English please?
What did Biden do that you did? I can list a lot of things but not ones you would be bragging on
Numbers are numbers, let's agree on a set of them and get the raw data for every country in the US and see which counties are statistical outliers based on the set of measures we agree to. As you say, outliers can go either way, let's see where they fall and who won the outliers (and whether the victory was despite the outlier or because of the outlier).
Here is the set I propose we work with to start. Feel free to add to the set, but with one condition, the data has be fully publicly available, not an extrapolation based on a limited sample (unfortunately this is going to disqualify every explanation you pointed to though).
| TR | Total Registrations |
| RR | Republican Registrations |
| DR | Democrat Registrations |
| OR | Other Registrations |
| TV | Total Votes Counted in Election |
| RV | Republican Votes |
| DV | Democrat Votes |
| OV | Other Votes |
From this information we can then calculate a few other numbers:
- The increase/decrease in votes and registrations between elections for each party
- The percentage share of votes and registrations each party has
- The “Votes / Registrations” ratio for each party (sometimes referred to as the “turnout”)
Want to play?
Btw: I never said Biden didn't win on the "up-and-up" (whatever that is). Quite the opposite. I originally said that he flipped the script on Obama, so much so, that we can only conclude that Obama was holding Ole Joe back (and to think people said Biden was Obama's court jester, tsk tsk...but I digress). I also went out of my way to say I'm not saying the election was fraudulent/stolen, stating it was a miracle comeback. Hes' up there with the resurrection story and the Red Sox coming back from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Yankees in the ALCS.
I heard old joe is going on the road now to try and get people to like grandpa joe. Agenda dead but cmon man like me I am uncle joe a uniter. He will probably claimed he worked in the steel mills with my dad when they were in college. Yes my dad worked in the mills in east chicago when in college for four years. Oh and he got tons of shit at iu for being from East Chicago they thought he was a thug carried a knife he told me. So yeah the old joe victim card pisses my off. My grandpa didn't speak a word of english when he came here and became a successful bar owner. My dad grew up with two people basically not knowing english so yeah the victim card is bs. You want it bad enough you can get it. My dad owns three houses now.
Last edited:
If you don't think the results were fraudulent, then this is meaningless.
Latest posts
-
-
Pacers take it to Milwaukee tonight tie the series 1-1
- Latest: TomEric4756
-
-
-