He thought UM had a higher ceiling than IU. He knew that the UM program had surpassed IU, had more tournament success in the last 20 years and IU is running on fumes. IU is his alma mater but he knew the program was nothing like when he was here and Michigan offers better upside.
There is a LOT of speculation and tea leaf reading in this post.
How do you know most of what you stated?