Fire and Fury the world has never seen before

[Marvin the Martian]

Diplomacy is the option we have to take and I think we have leverage. The UN sanctions were backed by China in the Security Council. China is North Korea's closest ally and China wants NK to continue to exist as a buffer to South Korea but would prefer they don't have nuclear weapons and that Kim wasn't causing so much turmoil. The sanctions will hurt NK and hurt more if China participates like they should after the UN vote. I think 3 way talks with NK, China and the US could result in a resolution. The resolution could be that NK gives up the nukes in return for lifting sanctions and economic help or something like that. The bad option would be a military attack to try to destroy their nuclear weapons and program because I think Kim is crazy enough to open fire on SK in retaliation. That would probably mean a real war with the same problem we had before and that is that China doesn't want a unified Korea friendly to the west more than them on their border. Resolving the war would be a harder nut to crack.

I doubt North Korea gives up their nukes. I think we are stuck with trying to freeze their program. What their leadership learned from Iraq is simple, if one doesn't have nukes one can be invaded by the US. If Saddam had nukes, he'd still be in power (or dead from some other means). I don't know that Kim is going to trust that we aren't going to invade if he gets rid of them.*

* yes, with their artillery near Seoul, the horrible terrain, and terrible winters an invasion is ludicrous. But even if highly unlikely that is far different than impossible if they keep their nukes.

 

[MrBing]

I doubt North Korea gives up their nukes. I think we are stuck with trying to freeze their program. What their leadership learned from Iraq is simple, if one doesn't have nukes one can be invaded by the US. If Saddam had nukes, he'd still be in power (or dead from some other means). I don't know that Kim is going to trust that we aren't going to invade if he gets rid of them.*

* yes, with their artillery near Seoul, the horrible terrain, and terrible winters an invasion is ludicrous. But even if highly unlikely that is far different than impossible if they keep their nukes.

A freeze on the program and maybe they keep one nuke. That wouldn't be an awful deal but I think giving up all of them are possible if China pledges to keep them under their nuke umbrella. NK is in horrible economic shape and they might give up a lot for removal of sanctions and some economic stimulus. I would but I'm not Krazy Kim. And all that dude wants is to stay in power.

 

[Bill4411]

I doubt North Korea gives up their nukes. I think we are stuck with trying to freeze their program. What their leadership learned from Iraq is simple, if one doesn't have nukes one can be invaded by the US. If Saddam had nukes, he'd still be in power (or dead from some other means). I don't know that Kim is going to trust that we aren't going to invade if he gets rid of them.*

* yes, with their artillery near Seoul, the horrible terrain, and terrible winters an invasion is ludicrous. But even if highly unlikely that is far different than impossible if they keep their nukes.

We and Russia guaranteed Ukraine's independence when they gave up their nuclear program, which at that time was the 3rd largest in the world. I'll bet they wish they would have kept their nukes.

 

[Hank Reardon]

A freeze on the program and maybe they keep one nuke. That wouldn't be an awful deal but I think giving up all of them are possible if China pledges to keep them under their nuke umbrella. NK is in horrible economic shape and they might give up a lot for removal of sanctions and some economic stimulus. I would but I'm not Krazy Kim. And all that dude wants is to stay in power.

I assume that a guy like Kim believes that possession of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them earns him a seat at the big kids table. I don't see him willing to be protected by China. Dude wants to be a player.

As many have said, there's no good answer. Allowing a nuclear North Korea with Kim at the helm is unthinkable. Preventing that by force is equally unthinkable.

The guy simply needs to be put down. I have to believe that if China wanted him dead, they'd make him dead. And I'll not be surprised if that happens.

 

[Bill4411]

I assume that a guy like Kim believes that possession of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them earns him a seat at the big kids table. I don't see him willing to be protected by China. Dude wants to be a player.

As many have said, there's no good answer. Allowing a nuclear North Korea with Kim at the helm is unthinkable. Preventing that by force is equally unthinkable.

The guy simply needs to be put down. I have to believe that if China wanted him dead, they'd make him dead. And I'll not be surprised if that happens.

It makes it hard to get rid of him as long as he keeps his nukes so I see his point. He should be able to maintain control of his country unless he is deposed internally but no external force is going to be able to take him out. It really makes sense if you look at it from his point of view. Kim ultimately will meet a terrible death but it will probably be whenever some other equally terrible monster is able to finally assassinate him.

 

[TheVegasHoosier]

The resolution could be that NK gives up the nukes in return for lifting sanctions and economic help or something like that.

Trump will shave his head before they give up their nukes.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I assume that a guy like Kim believes that possession of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them earns him a seat at the big kids table. I don't see him willing to be protected by China. Dude wants to be a player.

This rivalry goes back. Stalin, Mao and Kim's grandfather really hated each other during the Korean Conflict. There was a real battle over who was "in charge". The elder Kim did not want to take a back seat to his communist allies at all while the other two desperately wanted to push him to the kids table. I suspect that issue is still there.

 

[Stuffshot]

Folks, now our nuclear weapons explode and give off radiation. It's, like, amazing.

And, the EMP absolutely destroys any device that happens to be playing a Mylie Cyrus song at that time !!

(OK, well it destroys all other electrical circuits too, but I was trying to find a bright side. And failed.)

Serious question though: Would a "limited" use of nuclear weapons to cavemanize N. Korea cause a nuclear winter??

 

[Stuffshot]

This rivalry goes back. Stalin, Mao and Kim's grandfather really hated each other during the Korean Conflict. There was a real battle over who was "in charge". The elder Kim did not want to take a back seat to his communist allies at all while the other two desperately wanted to push him to the kids table. I suspect that issue is still there.

You're not at all wrong.

But.

But.

But.

It has been 64 years since the fighting ended in the Korean War.

And, during that time, the U.S. has not invaded N. Korea. Yet, Nutjob Kim III has been able to paint the U.S. as the only enemy to be feared. That's not really a "nutjob." It's really Hitler's "big lie" tactic (blaming someone else for your own failures).

We must assume Kim is perfectly rational.

 

[TheVegasHoosier]

And, the EMP absolutely destroys any device that happens to be playing a Mylie Cyrus song at that time !!

(OK, well it destroys all other electrical circuits too, but I was trying to find a bright side. And failed.)

Serious question though: Would a "limited" use of nuclear weapons to cavemanize N. Korea cause a nuclear winter??

How many nukes did we and the Soviets set off while testing them?

This is strictly a guess, but would it take more than 10 to take out Un and his facilities?

Seoul and Japan would be screwed, but I don't know how much the fall-out would hurt us.....if at all.

I'm in Vegas and back in the day, before my time, they used to have viewing parties to watch the nukes go off at the testing range.

 

[DrHoops]

You nailed it.

Diplomacy is the option we have to take and I think we have leverage. The UN sanctions were backed by China in the Security Council. China is North Korea's closest ally and China wants NK to continue to exist as a buffer to South Korea but would prefer they don't have nuclear weapons and that Kim wasn't causing so much turmoil. The sanctions will hurt NK and hurt more if China participates like they should after the UN vote. I think 3 way talks with NK, China and the US could result in a resolution. The resolution could be that NK gives up the nukes in return for lifting sanctions and economic help or something like that. The bad option would be a military attack to try to destroy their nuclear weapons and program because I think Kim is crazy enough to open fire on SK in retaliation. That would probably mean a real war with the same problem we had before and that is that China doesn't want a unified Korea friendly to the west more than them on their border. Resolving the war would be a harder nut to crack.

 

[DrHoops]

That's the scary thing. S Korea is an economy the size of Russia and Seoul is only 35 miles from the North Korean border. Thworld economy will be in shambles if war breaks out. China, the US, Japan(?) would all be pulled in.

Obviously it's been a very dangerous situation for a long time, but knowing Trump is the decision maker on this is a frightening prospect.

I doubt North Korea gives up their nukes. I think we are stuck with trying to freeze their program. What their leadership learned from Iraq is simple, if one doesn't have nukes one can be invaded by the US. If Saddam had nukes, he'd still be in power (or dead from some other means). I don't know that Kim is going to trust that we aren't going to invade if he gets rid of them.*

* yes, with their artillery near Seoul, the horrible terrain, and terrible winters an invasion is ludicrous. But even if highly unlikely that is far different than impossible if they keep their nukes.

 

[sglowrider]

That's the scary thing. S Korea is an economy the size of Russia and Seoul is only 35 miles from the North Korean border. Thworld economy will be in shambles if war breaks out. China, the US, Japan(?) would all be pulled in.

Obviously it's been a very dangerous situation for a long time, but knowing Trump is the decision maker on this is a frightening prospect.

Estimates of over a trillion bucks in damage.

 

[Optimist13]

Truman said almost the same thing to Japan at the end of WW2

 

[sglowrider]

Orange dove!

 

[ribbont]

I don't know if he is capable of learning now. I believe he does have reduced mental capacity compared to what his capacity was even 10 years ago. Trump can't string coherent sentences together and sounds like he's almost mentally disabled some times. They were playing clips on the radio this morning of Trump being interviewed 10 to 15 years ago and his sentences weren't all screwed up nonsense and he even sounded intelligent. He could have dementia or Alzheimer's now. He's not the same at all and I believe it's some mental issue. It's beyond scary.

So let me understand your point. 15-20 years ago, Trump said to take care of the problem now (late 90's) before NK gets nukes. Now that NK has nukes because of an appeasement attitude by Clinton, Bush, and Obama, Trump has a debilitating disease (that my grandmother had and my best friend's mom) because he is not applying an appeasement policy? That's what I am getting from both your posts. Just keep appeasing until NK develops a long range nuclear weapon. Is that your point? Keep appeasing?

 

[Rockfish1]

Trump is a flatulating butthead who, off the cuff, threatened nuclear annihilation if NoKo kept making threats that embarrassed him (given that he'd promised that with all his winning we wouldn't see this sort of thing any more). Kim Jong-Un promptly responded by threatening to annihilate our forces on Guam.

When Obama made his ill-conceived comment about a red line in Syria, that was a big deal, because despite what his critics claimed to believe, people mostly took that shit that Obama said seriously. It was a big deal when he backed off his red line because it was a big deal when he announced it in the first place. Our credibility was threatened, his detractors implicitly conceded, because he had credibility when he spoke.

I await the anguished response from Trump supporters that, unless he annihilates North Korea for its continuing threats, American credibility will be shredded. Of course, that won't happen, because no one takes anything Trump says seriously, but somehow none of his partisans imagines that this might undermine American credibility. Funny how times change.

 

[sglowrider]

 

[wiede]

Ain't organized religion great?

In my humble experience, once a church hits "megachurch" status, it really ceases to be much of a church. Quite frankly, the flock kinda acts like brainwashed cult members. And the pastors kind of lose their GD minds once they hit a certain point.

I never knew that god/JESUS favored 'Muricans over South Koreans.

As a side note, I literally live within a mile or so from cornerstone church in San Antonio. Pastors John and son Matt Hagee. They have long ago stopped preaching Jesus's true teachings. Hatred for people not like you and intolerance seem to be the foundation for many of the "lessons" taught at this place.

And it seems that being closer to God is somehow linked to expanding the physical footprint (in terms of buildings) of the church. The place keeps growing, and I really wonder what the hell they're preparing for in there. I am in TX, after all

 

[Marvin the Martian]

You're not at all wrong.

But.

But.

But.

It has been 64 years since the fighting ended in the Korean War.

And, during that time, the U.S. has not invaded N. Korea. Yet, Nutjob Kim III has been able to paint the U.S. as the only enemy to be feared. That's not really a "nutjob." It's really Hitler's "big lie" tactic (blaming someone else for your own failures).

We must assume Kim is perfectly rational.

Kim is perfectly rationale. We mistake his persona for the real Kim. I do not know why the family thinks looking the way they do is advantageous, but they do.

 

[Noodle]

View embedded media

....

Amazing. Trump was able to "renovate and modernize" our nuclear arsenal in less than 8 months? Heck, if that's the case we should have that wall completed by the end of the year!
It's like he's a reincarnation of Houdini with his magical powers.

 

[MrBing]

...

So let me understand your point. 15-20 years ago, Trump said to take care of the problem now (late 90's) before NK gets nukes. Now that NK has nukes because of an appeasement attitude by Clinton, Bush, and Obama, Trump has a debilitating disease (that my grandmother had and my best friend's mom) because he is not applying an appeasement policy? That's what I am getting from both your posts. Just keep appeasing until NK develops a long range nuclear weapon. Is that your point? Keep appeasing?

If that's what you got from them than you didn't understand what I wrote.

 

[Noodle]

Folks, now our nuclear weapons explode and give off radiation. It's, like, amazing.

I heard they added multicolor exploding shells so that you see a really spectacular fireworks display just before you are vaporized.

 

[Noodle]

Diplomacy is the option we have to take and I think we have leverage. The UN sanctions were backed by China in the Security Council. China is North Korea's closest ally and China wants NK to continue to exist as a buffer to South Korea but would prefer they don't have nuclear weapons and that Kim wasn't causing so much turmoil. The sanctions will hurt NK and hurt more if China participates like they should after the UN vote. I think 3 way talks with NK, China and the US could result in a resolution. The resolution could be that NK gives up the nukes in return for lifting sanctions and economic help or something like that. The bad option would be a military attack to try to destroy their nuclear weapons and program because I think Kim is crazy enough to open fire on SK in retaliation. That would probably mean a real war with the same problem we had before and that is that China doesn't want a unified Korea friendly to the west more than them on their border. Resolving the war would be a harder nut to crack.

While I continue to believe that China is the key to any diplomatic resolution, I have far greater doubts that a true diplomatic resolution is possible. However, I do wonder if China could somehow effect a regime change in North Korea without it leading to an armed conflict.

While a unified, democratic Korea is obviously our ideal outcome, as you said it is something that China does not want. However, I do think that a communist North Korea with a rational government akin to China's would be (and should be) acceptable to the U.S. and South Korea given the current situation. Not sure how that could be accomplished, but I sure hope we are willing to reset our goals with respect to Korea.

 

[sglowrider]

Amazing. Trump was able to "renovate and modernize" our nuclear arsenal in less than 8 months? Heck, if that's the case we should have that wall completed by the end of the year!
It's like he's a reincarnation of Houdini with his magical powers.

Considering that he doesn't even know how to use a PC and he thinks a 11y.o Baron's a computer genius, I suspect seeing a Command & Control Centre with digital clocks will give him an erection at the most inappropriate occasion.

 

[toastedbread]

China is North Korea's closest ally and China wants NK to continue to exist as a buffer to South Korea but would prefer they don't have nuclear weapons and that Kim wasn't causing so much turmoil. The sanctions will hurt NK and hurt more if China participates like they should after the UN vote.

I wouldn't bank on any of this, nor have I seen any evidence china is prepared to stop a nuclear Nk. They appear reasonably pleased with the status quo of NK as a thorn in the side to the US. Russia also is supporting them recently.

The resolution could be that NK gives up the nukes in return for lifting sanctions and economic help or something like that.

I don't believe there is any economic incentive we could offer NK in exchange for their nukes. You must also separate the general economy from the Kim family. The family is facing 0 economic pain, and they don't care if the public starves.

As for an attack, I presume the first foray would involve taking Kim out by special forces before he could order a strike against SK.

Perhaps China would be open to a neutral force in NK. Peacekeeping troops. I have no idea. I'm not advocating a military attack, but I don't see any pathway for the diplomacy you describe. Any freeze is also fruitless as the north Koreans will make iranian cheating look like paddycakes.

 

[MrBing]

I wouldn't bank on any of this, nor have I seen any evidence china is prepared to stop a nuclear Nk. They appear reasonably pleased with the status quo of NK as a thorn in the side to the US. Russia also is supporting them recently.


I don't believe there is any economic incentive we could offer NK in exchange for their nukes. You must also separate the general economy from the Kim family. The family is facing 0 economic pain, and they don't care if the public starves.

As for an attack, I presume the first foray would involve taking Kim out by special forces before he could order a strike against SK.

Perhaps China would be open to a neutral force in NK. Peacekeeping troops. I have no idea. I'm not advocating a military attack, but I don't see any pathway for the diplomacy you describe. Any freeze is also fruitless as the north Koreans will make iranian cheating look like paddycakes.

There is no chance of special forces taking out Kim. It couldn't be done. If we attacked North Korea one mission of the initial air strikes would be aimed at taking him out at the location we THINK he is. The rest would be taking out their Air Defense systems and then their missiles and artillery. At the same time North Korea will be shooting everything they have at Seoul until we can stop them and that won't happen immediately. South Korean damage would be huge.

Diplomacy is our only real option. A freeze would have to include inspections to make sure they're not cheating. China and the US and other countries can provide a lot of economic aid that would help improve that sh!t hole country.

 

[toastedbread]

At the same time North Korea will be shooting everything they have at Seoul until we can stop them and that won't happen immediately. South Korean damage would be huge.

we don't know that for certain. How will they react if he is killed?

China and the US and other countries can provide a lot of economic aid that would help improve that sh!t hole count

ok, and how exactly is that in the interest of the Kim clan? I'd argue that economic development is in the interest of the populace, but not necessarily the Kim family. The two must be separated. We aren't negotiating with the North Korean people.

 

[MrBing]

we don't know that for certain. How will they react if he is killed?



ok, and how exactly is that in the interest of the Kim clan? I'd argue that economic development is in the interest of the populace, but not necessarily the Kim family. The two must be separated. We aren't negotiating with the North Korean people.

When does the population decide it has had enough and rebel?

 

[Bill4411]

When does the population decide it has had enough and rebel?

They love him like a God over there. I guess this is what happens when you completely control every aspect of communication. If there was a way they could see the outside world things might change fast.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

When does the population decide it has had enough and rebel?

They don't. First of all, they are all brainwashed. Second of all, the only viable form of revolution in a state that heavily militarized is a military-led coup. Any popular revolt will be crushed.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

They don't. First of all, they are all brainwashed. Second of all, the only viable form of revolution in a state that heavily militarized is a military-led coup. Any popular revolt will be crushed.

There is a point at which the state's ability to crush a citizen's coup is near absolute. North Korea and China are both there. Nazi Germany was there. That point is when absolutely anyone will inform on anyone else. Parents/kids informing on each other, for example.There is a book on life in Berlin throughout the war, the least little offenses resulted in people calling the authorities. If you thought you heard me say something defeatist, you would call it in on the off-chance I said it as a test and was going to call you in for not reporting it.

It is awful hard to get a citizen coup started in that environment. And is a large reason why Tiananmen Square never progressed in China.

 

[TheVegasHoosier]

It is awful hard to get a citizen coup started in that environment. And is a large reason why Tiananmen Square never progressed in China.

Trump actually praised China for that.......just like he's praised all dictators for "being tough."

 

[RBB89]

When does the population decide it has had enough and rebel?

They won't. They're brainwashed and have no idea what goes on in the outside world. They love Kim.

 

[MrBing]

They don't. First of all, they are all brainwashed. Second of all, the only viable form of revolution in a state that heavily militarized is a military-led coup. Any popular revolt will be crushed.

Oh I know it's not likely to happen soon but oppression can lead to revolt. And also they are more exposed to the outside world through contacts with people in South Korea and in China thru work programs.

 

[MrBing]

They won't. They're brainwashed and have no idea what goes on in the outside world. They love Kim.

It won't be soon I agree but it could happen in the future.

 

[Hank Reardon]

Oh I know it's not likely to happen soon but oppression can lead to revolt. And also they are more exposed to the outside world through contacts with people in South Korea and in China thru work programs.

Revolt, with what? It isn't some banana republic where the rebels can overrun the capital. North Korea has the 4th largest military in the world. Maybe someday they'll realize they've been duped, but a fat lot a bunch of peasants with pitchforks can do other than be targets.

 

[toastedbread]

Oh I know it's not likely to happen soon but oppression can lead to revolt. And also they are more exposed to the outside world through contacts with people in South Korea and in China thru work programs.

what time frame are you thinking?

The # of those contacts is in the low thousands? And the way those programs work they don't have contact with the general public. They come back as brainwashed as they left. Besides, construction workers don't start a rebellion.

 

[sglowrider]

Why China won't isolate North Korea
China, which sells billions in fuel and food to North Korea, is far better positioned than the U.S. to weaken its volatile neighbor without firing a single missile.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/10/why-china-will-not-isolate-north-korea-241504

 

[sglowrider]

He is seriously not all there and/or he has a pretty small willy (aka fingers.) We know he only punches down but how stupid can he be?
Its like goading a fat kid in the school yard who has a loaded gun in hand?