Comparing flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is like comparing apples to oranges

[Rockfish1]

This piece from Scientific American explains why:

The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which [is] far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

. . . The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.
​

I don't think we'll really know how many people COVID-19 killed until we see reliable numbers on excess deaths during the pandemic period. In any event, when the experts tell us that COVID-19 is way worse than the flu, maybe we should listen to them instead of the armchair epidemiologists and armchair virologists.

 

[outside shooter]

No way am I ever going to listen to trained scientists who spend decades studying this stuff, when it is all laid out so clearly by a few fat, angry white guys posting on Facebook. I'm woke.

 

[UncleMark]

I don't think we'll really know how many people COVID-19 killed until we see reliable numbers on excess deaths during the pandemic period. In any event, when the experts tell us that COVID-19 is way worse than the flu, maybe we should listen to them instead of the armchair epidemiologists and armchair virologists.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

This piece from Scientific American explains why:

The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which [is] far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

. . . The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.
​

I don't think we'll really know how many people COVID-19 killed until we see reliable numbers on excess deaths during the pandemic period. In any event, when the experts tell us that COVID-19 is way worse than the flu, maybe we should listen to them instead of the armchair epidemiologists and armchair virologists.

The accuracy of the compared numbers is not as important as why people think the comparison is relevant to anything. If people want to compare coronavirus deaths to flu, drug overdoses, traffic accidents, or what have you, to create a personal frame of reference in order to think about this, so what?

The problem arises when policy decisions are based upon these kinds of comparisons. We obviously didn't start down that road because all levels of government imposed shutdowns and quarantines based upon the relevant factors as recommended by people like Fauci and Brix.

This brings me to Governor Whitmer. As she extended her lock down EO until May 28, she actually said that the number of Covid deaths having exceeded Viet Nam war dead shows how serious Covid is. Ugh!

 

[Rockfish1]

The accuracy of the compared numbers is not as important as why people think the comparison is relevant to anything. If people want to compare coronavirus deaths to flu, drug overdoses, traffic accidents, or what have you, to create a personal frame of reference in order to think about this, so what?

The problem arises when policy decisions are based upon these kinds of comparisons. We obviously didn't start down that road because all levels of government imposed shutdowns and quarantines based upon the relevant factors as recommended by people like Fauci and Brix.

This brings me to Governor Whitmer. As she extended her lock down EO until May 28, she actually said that the number of Covid deaths having exceeded Viet Nam war dead shows how serious Covid is. Ugh!

As an epidemiologist, you're a really shitty climate scientist.

 

[outside shooter]

I think it is quite remarkable that this virus has killed more Americans in one month than died in the Vietnam War over 13+ years, when we associate that war with intense ineptitude, overt government dishonesty, and what we considered to be an insanely high death toll

 

[ButHerEmails]

This piece from Scientific American explains why:

The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which [is] far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

. . . The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.
​

I don't think we'll really know how many people COVID-19 killed until we see reliable numbers on excess deaths during the pandemic period. In any event, when the experts tell us that COVID-19 is way worse than the flu, maybe we should listen to them instead of the armchair epidemiologists and armchair virologists.

I’ve ignored the idiocy that compares COVID-19 to the flu since the MAGA-hatters got their daily download from FoxNews and republican hate radio. Aside from everything virologists and epidemiologists have said about COVID, we don’t issue stay-at-home orders, close restaurants, close bars, close gyms, close hair salons, close schools, cancel both amateur and pro sporting events, recommend/require the wearing of face masks or limit the number of people allowed in a grocery store during flu season. Everything else aside, if we do all that during an upcoming flu season, then I’ll eagerly listen to the comparisons.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

I think it is quite remarkable that this virus has killed more Americans in one month than died in the Vietnam War over 13+ years, when we associate that war with intense ineptitude, overt government dishonesty, and what we considered to be an insanely high death toll

Being remarkable is one thing. Being a relevant factor upon which to make important decisions is a different thing.

 

[UncleMark]

Being remarkable is one thing. Being a relevant factor upon which to make important decisions is a different thing.

The only people using those kinds of comparisons for policy reasons are the Pubs who keep talking about flu deaths.

 

[sglowrider]

I think it is quite remarkable that this virus has killed more Americans in one month than died in the Vietnam War over 13+ years, when we associate that war with intense ineptitude, overt government dishonesty, and what we considered to be an insanely high death toll

Just think about this.

March 1st 2020, there were only 65 cases, 1 death.

Now, two months later, the US has more cases and deaths than any country in the world.

 

[ButHerEmails]

Just think about this.

March 1st 2020, there were only 65 cases, 1 death.

Now, two months later, the US has more cases and deaths than any country in the world.

65,000 deaths in two months and that’s with almost everything limited or cancelled in some way. Yes it’s definitely time we start opening everything up.

 

[sglowrider]

The only people using those kinds of comparisons for policy reasons are the Pubs who keep talking about flu deaths.

Let them sign a bloody waiver then:

 

[sglowrider]

 

[sglowrider]

U.S. says will not take part in WHO global drugs, vaccine initiative launch

The United States will not take part in the launching of a global initiative on Friday to speed the development, production and distribution of drugs and vaccines against COVID-19, a spokesman for the U.S. mission in Geneva told Reuters.

“There will be no U.S. official participation”, he said in an email reply to a query. “We look forward to learning more about this initiative in support of international cooperation to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 as soon as possible.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a suspension of funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), where it is the largest donor. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will help launch the global initiative on Friday, the U.N. agency said ahead of the 1300 GMT event.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It simply means that the US will be not taking part in sharing their progress. Those in the chains are routinely sharing their progress so negative result can be communicated to safe time, so that you don't try things that fail.

The US out of it means if its strikes gold and find the cure before everyone does, it will be maga fecking rich. If the other finds it first, they will buy it in the name of saving humanity.

Trump is doing more than any other individual in recent history to diminish American soft power globally at the moment.

 

[DrHoops]

Embarrassing.

U.S. says will not take part in WHO global drugs, vaccine initiative launch

The United States will not take part in the launching of a global initiative on Friday to speed the development, production and distribution of drugs and vaccines against COVID-19, a spokesman for the U.S. mission in Geneva told Reuters.

“There will be no U.S. official participation”, he said in an email reply to a query. “We look forward to learning more about this initiative in support of international cooperation to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 as soon as possible.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a suspension of funding to the World Health Organization (WHO), where it is the largest donor. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will help launch the global initiative on Friday, the U.N. agency said ahead of the 1300 GMT event.

 

[Spartans9312]

I think it is quite remarkable that this virus has killed more Americans in one month than died in the Vietnam War over 13+ years, when we associate that war with intense ineptitude, overt government dishonesty, and what we considered to be an insanely high death toll

John Roberts: "A senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional."
I was interested in your take on this statement.

 

[UncleMark]

John Roberts: "A senior Intelligence Source tells me there is agreement among most of the 17 intelligence agencies that COVID-19 originated in the Wuhan lab. The source stressed that the release is believed to be a MISTAKE, and was not intentional."
I was interested in your take on this statement.

When people say it came from a "lab", the dotards hear "man made", even though there's no reason to believe it is anything but naturally occurring.

 

[stollcpa]

When people say it came from a "lab", the dotards hear "man made", even though there's no reason to believe it is anything but naturally occurring.

What difference does it make if it got out of the lab by mistake or intentionally?

 

[UncleMark]

What difference does it make if it got out of the lab by mistake or intentionally?

No one except maybe the QAnon nutters thinks the Chinese intentionally released the virus on their own people.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

What difference does it make if it got out of the lab by mistake or intentionally?

Just the difference between negligence and a crime against humanity.

 

[stollcpa]

Just the difference between negligence and a crime against humanity.

Whether it came from the lab unintentionally or the market, if the government lied about human to human spread and knowingly let people leave the country, what’s that?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Whether it came from the lab unintentionally or the market, if the government lied about human to human spread and knowingly let people leave the country, what’s that?

I don't know. Your first question was easy. For this one, you'd need someone who's an expert in international law.

 

[StelioKantos]

Abiding by the constitution is more important than life or death OR your fear.

 

[stollcpa]

I don't know. Your first question was easy. For this one, you'd need someone who's an expert in international law.

I don’t think we will ever know. Have you seen any evidence to the charge that early on they were stopping internal travel from Wuhan but allowed international fights to leave?

 

[UncleMark]

I don’t think we will ever know. Have you seen any evidence to the charge that early on they were stopping internal travel from Wuhan but allowed international fights to leave?

They were allowing foreign nationals to leave. What would have been your reaction if they had refused to allow Americans to return home? After Trump's "travel ban" nearly 40,000 people with US ties (citizens, family, etc.) came here from China.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I don’t think we will ever know. Have you seen any evidence to the charge that early on they were stopping internal travel from Wuhan but allowed international fights to leave?

I don't know anything about that, but Mark makes a good point about allowing foreign nationals to leave.

 

[stollcpa]

They were allowing foreign nationals to leave. What would have been your reaction if they had refused to allow Americans to return home? After Trump's "travel ban" nearly 40,000 people with US ties (citizens, family, etc.) came here from China.

Guess foreign nationals to Northern Italy and everywhere else. So when China and the media cried racism after travel ban it was all about foreign nationals?

 

[twenty02]

What difference does it make if it got out of the lab by mistake or intentionally?

Makes a huge difference when we worry about a future virus. I'd actually feel better if it was just a negligent practice in a lab than something that occurred in the general population. That would be something much easier to fix from occurring again.

 

[HillzHoozier]

65,000 deaths in two months and that’s with almost everything limited or cancelled in some way. Yes it’s definitely time we start opening everything up.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Do you even read your own links before you post them?

 

[HillzHoozier]

Do you even read your own links before you post them?

Yes. Yes I do.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yes. Yes I do.

I doubt that.

 

[mohoosier]

This piece from Scientific American explains why:

The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which [is] far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

. . . The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.
​

I don't think we'll really know how many people COVID-19 killed until we see reliable numbers on excess deaths during the pandemic period. In any event, when the experts tell us that COVID-19 is way worse than the flu, maybe we should listen to them instead of the armchair epidemiologists and armchair virologists.

And, COVID-19 death numbers are not being reported accurately as well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-13/ten-reasons-to-doubt-the-covid-19-data

https://www.sungazette.com/news/top...19-records-with-data-from-hospitals-counties/

 

[82hoosier]

I’ve ignored the idiocy that compares COVID-19 to the flu since the MAGA-hatters got their daily download from FoxNews and republican hate radio. Aside from everything virologists and epidemiologists have said about COVID, we don’t issue stay-at-home orders, close restaurants, close bars, close gyms, close hair salons, close schools, cancel both amateur and pro sporting events, recommend/require the wearing of face masks or limit the number of people allowed in a grocery store during flu season. Everything else aside, if we do all that during an upcoming flu season, then I’ll eagerly listen to the comparisons.

Very astute! Epidemiologists all around the world have a determined that we all need to be on lockdown but you have figured out that this is really just the flu! Brilliant!

Are you also a member of the flat Earth Society? Are you part of that group believes that man and dinosaurs cohabitated the earth together? You sound very sure of yourself!

 

[sglowrider]

And, COVID-19 death numbers are not being reported accurately as well.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-13/ten-reasons-to-doubt-the-covid-19-data

https://www.sungazette.com/news/top...19-records-with-data-from-hospitals-counties/

You are correct. The actual numbers are most likely when everything is all said and done, much worse than currently published or declared.

When you do more test, the numbers will rocket. At the moment the US is about in the barely average range for testing per capita, in comparison to the world.

According to worldometer, the USA is 42nd in the world in terms of testing/million (per capita.)

As the 42nd nation in terms of testing per capita, it has a long way to go in ascertaining an accurate count of the actual spread. Therefore the reality is that the real numbers will rise dramatically. As some of the links provided have suggested, the officials have a reason to not tell the truth including the US.

And tbf it will always be tough to figure out the reality when the asymptomatics are like 40-60% of all infected cases. They will in all likelihood not be tested unless the gov't forces everyone to be tested.

So basically all the healthcare professionals are doing are wild ass guessing since they have only a slither of information to base their recommendations on.

 

[ButHerEmails]

Very astute! Epidemiologists all around the world have a determined that we all need to be on lockdown but you have figured out that this is really just the flu! Brilliant!

Are you also a member of the flat Earth Society? Are you part of that group believes that man and dinosaurs cohabitated the earth together? You sound very sure of yourself!

Did you mean to reply to me?

 

[ButHerEmails]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Ok. And? Is that another attempt at giving us a dose of reality?

 

[Courtsensetwo]

The only people using those kinds of comparisons for policy reasons are the Pubs who keep talking about flu deaths.

Those comparisons are being used and weaponized by both ends of the lunacy spectrum as demonstrated in this very thread.

 

[ButHerEmails]

Those comparisons are being used and weaponized by both ends of the lunacy spectrum as demonstrated in this very thread.

There’s Mr Moderate-of-all-Moderates with his famous both sides schtick again.

 

[Charlesroast]

You are correct. The actual numbers are most likely when everything is all said and done, much worse than currently published or declared.

When you do more test, the numbers will rocket. At the moment the US is about in the barely average range for testing per capita, in comparison to the world.

According to worldometer, the USA is 42nd in the world in terms of testing/million (per capita.)

As the 42nd nation in terms of testing per capita, it has a long way to go in ascertaining an accurate count of the actual spread. Therefore the reality is that the real numbers will rise dramatically. As some of the links provided have suggested, the officials have a reason to not tell the truth including the US.

And tbf it will always be tough to figure out the reality when the asymptomatics are like 40-60% of all infected cases. They will in all likelihood not be tested unless the gov't forces everyone to be tested.

So basically all the healthcare professionals are doing are wild ass guessing since they have only a slither of information to base their recommendations on.

It appears the takeaway from your perspective is testing is the key first step in dealing with Covid-19. Yet we know that somehow a jump of this naturally occurring virus happened in late 2019 in Wuhan China. The first case of what proved to be a highly contagious and stealthy (asymptomatic individuals means significant undercounting of actual cases) virus came as a surprise to everyone. It would seem in this situation the virus would have been able to establish widespread distribution before testing was even contemplated. Yet China was able to hold their deaths to 3/1M, & effectively contain the virus. Unfortunately China is not providing test numbers which would underscore the critical nature of testing.

Insight from someone closer to China than the rest of us who view this board regarding how this miraculous containment was achieved would be helpful.