What is "well thought out" about his post. He cites statistics and "facts" without providing any evidence that any of it is remotely accurate. For example he says Biden won 90% of the Black vote, when the pew research analysis I linked to which was based on confirmed voters put the number at 92%. He also relied on showing what he saw as discrepancies between Obama and Biden, yet the pew analysis provided proof that the 2018 and 2020 elections were remarkably similar in shares of votes from various constituent groups...
He implied for example that Pubs out registered Dems in states like PA and MI...
"Another question would be what are the dynamics in party registration, specifically the % of registered democrats in MI, GA, PA, and WI from 2012 to 2020?
Wouldn't it be really something if the GOP outpaced the Dems in registration % and total new registrations over that time period, yet somehow Biden managed to connect to that base and pull them into his camp at a greater rate than Obama - a president that had large crossover appeal?"
Wouldn't it be something if he provided an actual link providing evidence of the claim he made? Apparently his bold claims without evidence were enough to earn him likes from you and dbm, but not exactly a glowing review from recognized posters of much intelligence...
I'm not a math/stats guy, but I examined the results of 10 of the reddest counties in PA from 2016 to 2020 and I can tell you why Biden won PA...
There's an interactive map at this link
https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties_in_Pennsylvania
Now starting in the far west corner and moving East along the NY border from Warren Co to Wayne and then south to Pike and then back west to both Wyoming and Sullivan, Trump won each of these counties by getting at least 59% of the vote. In some his vote share went up from 2016,and in a few it went down. But in every single one of them Biden outperformed HRC by at least 1.5 %. In 5 the results were pretty shocking...
Sullivan went from 72.7/23.8 in 2016 to 72.8/25.6 in 2020
Wyoming from 66.7/28.8 in 2016 to 66.7/31.6 in 2020
Wayne from 67.6/29.2 to 66.2/32.7 in 2020
Tioga from 73.6/21.1 to 74.5/23.5
Pike from 61/35.2 to 59/40
Wyoming, Wayne and Pike all share a border with either Lackawanna or Monroe. Both Lackawanna and Monroe went for Biden by wider margins in 2020 than Clinton in 2016. Conversely Trump's vote share in both also dropped from 2016 to 2020. From 46.3 to 45.2 in Lackawanna and even more drastically from 47.7 to 46.1 in Monroe...
This reflects Biden's gains with white voters which I discussed earlier. I chose these deep red counties which Trump swept to illustrate how Biden was able to siphon away votes and chip away in counties where the election apparatus is in the hands of the GOP. I suspect if I analyzed a state like GA the results would be even more dramatic- we saw that in the Senate runoffs. We all saw huge hints of increased Biden support over Clinton in both the MI and WI Primaries, where if I'm not mistaken Biden got more votes in both than the combined total of both HRC/Bernie in the 2016 primaries which Bernie swept...
Now I don't know what Blarney was implying in his "brilliant" post, but he's welcome to return and share some more of what you characterize as "well constructed and thoughtful".
And either of you are welcome to address how local GOP candidates (on the same ballot with Trump/Biden) managed to not only win elections but often got more votes than Trump in their respective districts?