Biden really flipped the script
Obama 2012 | Biden 2020 |
60 million votes | 81 million |
873 counties | 509 counties |
18/19 Bellweather Counties | 1/19 Bellweather Counties |
Won FL, OH, IA | Lost FL, OH, IA |
Won House Seats | Lost House Seats |
Are you saying that Biden crushing Obama in the results shown above can be explained by VA and NV, which Clinton won in 2016 only to lose the race?
Or in other words, if you had to place a bet now, would you expect the 2024 winner to look like Obama's 2012 results, even losing NV and VA (results aligned to 2016), or would you expect the winner's results to look like Biden's in the table above if the candidate wins NV and VA?
The comment on the black vote is maybe referring to Obama taking 97% of the black vote, while Biden got 90%. However, Biden gleaned more total black votes than Obama. The reason here is straightforward, turnout.
Reputable main stream media fact-checkers have affirmed that more black voters turned out to vote for Biden in 2020 than Obama in 2012, and more importantly, exactly in the places he needed the votes the most Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee, and the votes were by mail, leading to one of the greatest comebacks of all time. Why would anyone expect Obama to be a bigger ballot box attraction than Biden?
Any insights on what the 2020 census shows in growth/decline vs 2010 in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee? Wouldn't be something if the populations in those places declined and yet the total voter turnout massively increased?
Another question would be what are the dynamics in party registration, specifically the % of registered democrats in MI, GA, PA, and WI from 2012 to 2020? Wouldn't it be really something if the GOP outpaced the Dems in registration % and total new registrations over that time period, yet somehow Biden managed to connect to that base and pull them into his camp at a greater rate than Obama - a president that had large crossover appeal?
So we are clear on the topic, this Biden vs Obama. I made no mention of the 2020 GOP candidate in my post. Feel free to ignore me (which would probably be a wise move because you can't win this one), but if you take the challenge and actually try to defend your analysis, I expect you will make no mention of him in your response.
As you said, Ohio mattered "decades ago". To go back approximately a single decade, I have to go to either 2012 or 2008, I picked 2012, but we can go with 2008 if it better explains your point. Feel free to post that table in a similar format as above, and please show your math.
On another vector of thought, Obama was really holding Joe Biden back for 8 years. In looking at the numbers, one can only imagine the extent to which they would have crushed it if only they had the ticket the other way around with Obama as the VP.