The race is as close as it's ever been (sort of)

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

If you look at the 538 projections, you'll see that Clinton has a 56% chance of winning, which is actually pretty good. It's not neck-in-neck. However, on a state-by-state (or district-by-district, with Trump winning ME2) basis, it's as close as it's been yet, with Clinton winning 272 electoral votes, clinching the nomination with a single state (by 538's projections, NH).

So why isn't it 50/50? Because Clinton is safer in her states than Trump is in his. Trump has four states - Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida - that are closer than Clinton's two weakest states - New Hampshire and Colorado. So while the map is split down the middle, it's still mathematically more likely for Clinton to start running up the score than it is for Trump to start picking off even more blue states.

Still, if the map looks anything like this going into election night, it should make for a very tense evening. I'm still counting on the debates to shake things out quite a bit, but I think we have to start preparing for the possibility that election night could involve a lot of stress, a lot of drama, and, most likely, a lot of drinking. Also, I expect the Cooler to be at DEFCON 1 that night if the race is this close.

 

[Fro]

It may take a few days for it to impact 538's model since a lot of pollsters are waiting until after the debate, but Clinton's numbers seem to have recovered a bit from last week in the polls that were released Tuesday.

 

[mjvcaj]

Can't stop the Trump train! Choo Choo!

 

[Ladoga]

If you look at the 538 projections, you'll see that Clinton has a 56% chance of winning, which is actually pretty good. It's not neck-in-neck. However, on a state-by-state (or district-by-district, with Trump winning ME2) basis, it's as close as it's been yet, with Clinton winning 272 electoral votes, clinching the nomination with a single state (by 538's projections, NH).

So why isn't it 50/50? Because Clinton is safer in her states than Trump is in his. Trump has four states - Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida - that are closer than Clinton's two weakest states - New Hampshire and Colorado. So while the map is split down the middle, it's still mathematically more likely for Clinton to start running up the score than it is for Trump to start picking off even more blue states.

Still, if the map looks anything like this going into election night, it should make for a very tense evening. I'm still counting on the debates to shake things out quite a bit, but I think we have to start preparing for the possibility that election night could involve a lot of stress, a lot of drama, and, most likely, a lot of drinking. Also, I expect the Cooler to be at DEFCON 1 that night if the race is this close.

What was the 538 percentage prediction a month ago? IF the election was today, the 538 prediction is as you state. What is the trend? Seven weeks is a long time to hide Hillary from public scrutiny.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

I'm still counting on the debates to shake things out quite a bit

Really?

Who knows, with as unconventional as this election cycle has been, you could be right. But I've come to think that, in the last couple decades, debates have had consistently declining influence.

But, given the unpopularity of both major party candidates, the increased level of support for 3rd party candidates, and the numbers of voters who still seem torn about which candidate they dislike the least, perhaps this one is more fluid than most.

 

[SuperHoosierFan]

If you look at the 538 projections, you'll see that Clinton has a 56% chance of winning, which is actually pretty good. It's not neck-in-neck. However, on a state-by-state (or district-by-district, with Trump winning ME2) basis, it's as close as it's been yet, with Clinton winning 272 electoral votes, clinching the nomination with a single state (by 538's projections, NH).

So why isn't it 50/50? Because Clinton is safer in her states than Trump is in his. Trump has four states - Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida - that are closer than Clinton's two weakest states - New Hampshire and Colorado. So while the map is split down the middle, it's still mathematically more likely for Clinton to start running up the score than it is for Trump to start picking off even more blue states.

Still, if the map looks anything like this going into election night, it should make for a very tense evening. I'm still counting on the debates to shake things out quite a bit, but I think we have to start preparing for the possibility that election night could involve a lot of stress, a lot of drama, and, most likely, a lot of drinking. Also, I expect the Cooler to be at DEFCON 1 that night if the race is this close.

I was thinking about what the debates might do myself. I do believe, as I said yesterday, that the people who are attracted to Trump are so because of the insane things he says and does. I think another part of why they like him is he isn't a polished politician and he proves it when he says and does stupid shit. I'm afraid this will only be hammered home in the debates and solidify his base. It may also bring in independents who are tired of politicians. It's like the worst thing he could do, as far as his base is concerned, is suddenly have substance and discuss issues/policy in any detail. Just stick to the bumper sticker answers.

 

[zeke4ahs]

What was the 538 percentage prediction a month ago? IF the election was today, the 538 prediction is as you state. What is the trend? Seven weeks is a long time to hide Hillary from public scrutiny.

Seven weeks is a long time to keep the Donald on his leash. Since Hillary has nothing to hide, and they aren't even letting the Donald take questions any more, my bets on Clinton.