If you look at the 538 projections, you'll see that Clinton has a 56% chance of winning, which is actually pretty good. It's not neck-in-neck. However, on a state-by-state (or district-by-district, with Trump winning ME2) basis, it's as close as it's been yet, with Clinton winning 272 electoral votes, clinching the nomination with a single state (by 538's projections, NH).
So why isn't it 50/50? Because Clinton is safer in her states than Trump is in his. Trump has four states - Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida - that are closer than Clinton's two weakest states - New Hampshire and Colorado. So while the map is split down the middle, it's still mathematically more likely for Clinton to start running up the score than it is for Trump to start picking off even more blue states.
Still, if the map looks anything like this going into election night, it should make for a very tense evening. I'm still counting on the debates to shake things out quite a bit, but I think we have to start preparing for the possibility that election night could involve a lot of stress, a lot of drama, and, most likely, a lot of drinking. Also, I expect the Cooler to be at DEFCON 1 that night if the race is this close.
So why isn't it 50/50? Because Clinton is safer in her states than Trump is in his. Trump has four states - Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida - that are closer than Clinton's two weakest states - New Hampshire and Colorado. So while the map is split down the middle, it's still mathematically more likely for Clinton to start running up the score than it is for Trump to start picking off even more blue states.
Still, if the map looks anything like this going into election night, it should make for a very tense evening. I'm still counting on the debates to shake things out quite a bit, but I think we have to start preparing for the possibility that election night could involve a lot of stress, a lot of drama, and, most likely, a lot of drinking. Also, I expect the Cooler to be at DEFCON 1 that night if the race is this close.