Is it the slew of October partisan GOP polls predicting a "red wave"? Or is it the actual trends showing up in the early voting, and the data that Simon Rosenberg provided in this Meidas Touch podcast earlier today? Hey who better than me to post something controversial, right?
This is a long (27 min video), and undoubtedly most people will not bother to check it out. But if for whatever reason the "Red Wave" being touted by the likes of bailey, dbm, DANC, ftw and others fails to materialize, and you find yourself wondering how all of those Trafalgar/ Rasmussen and myriad of polling outfits you've never heard of could all be wrong, then you can come back and watch this and know that it wasn't that the GOP was "robbed". Rather it's that polls can only tell so much and actual data and results can sometimes tell you things that pollsters miss...
There's been a few folks questioning these October polls- here's an article that raises some valid questions...
www.yahoo.com
Think about how all of a sudden the polls shifted in Oct, and as we witnessed on this very board the drumbeat was led by partisan GOP pollsters. There was a period of about 10 days when no independent, non-partisan polls were released but seemingly every day there was a new Ras, or Trafalgar or IA poll filling the void. Now it's to the point that national media is touting a huge GOP advantage, but that is not what the actual early vote totals (26 Million) and data (Dems +3 Million) is saying. Specifically in order to have a wave you have to have a dearth of votes from the opposition and that's normally what happens in midterms...
But Dem early vote in 2022 is actually higher in background states than it was in both 2018 and 2020. And according to Rosenberg who is part of the effort and privy to the data, Dems voting early increases Dem overall turnout.
While some people claim that it leads to a cannibalization of election day turnout, he points out that the Dems have concentrated their efforts to get the most reliable of Dem voters to vote early. By doing so, they are now able to concentrate on motivating lower propensity voters to the polls, instead of having to extend time and energy to turning out the regular Dem voters in the next few days and on election day...
Of course the Red wave could still grow into a tsunami on election day and wipe out the leads the Dems have. But at this point in time, that's not what the actual data is telling the people who are privy to the data and analyzing it. He sounds pretty confidant, so we'll see...
But if the "red wave doesn't drown us all and the main proponents and advocates of same on here are whining incessantly about "stolen elections", then redirect them back to this thread. And laugh at them...
This is a long (27 min video), and undoubtedly most people will not bother to check it out. But if for whatever reason the "Red Wave" being touted by the likes of bailey, dbm, DANC, ftw and others fails to materialize, and you find yourself wondering how all of those Trafalgar/ Rasmussen and myriad of polling outfits you've never heard of could all be wrong, then you can come back and watch this and know that it wasn't that the GOP was "robbed". Rather it's that polls can only tell so much and actual data and results can sometimes tell you things that pollsters miss...
There's been a few folks questioning these October polls- here's an article that raises some valid questions...
How polling averages could be underestimating the Democrats
Are Republican survey firms skewing midterm predictions?
Think about how all of a sudden the polls shifted in Oct, and as we witnessed on this very board the drumbeat was led by partisan GOP pollsters. There was a period of about 10 days when no independent, non-partisan polls were released but seemingly every day there was a new Ras, or Trafalgar or IA poll filling the void. Now it's to the point that national media is touting a huge GOP advantage, but that is not what the actual early vote totals (26 Million) and data (Dems +3 Million) is saying. Specifically in order to have a wave you have to have a dearth of votes from the opposition and that's normally what happens in midterms...
But Dem early vote in 2022 is actually higher in background states than it was in both 2018 and 2020. And according to Rosenberg who is part of the effort and privy to the data, Dems voting early increases Dem overall turnout.
While some people claim that it leads to a cannibalization of election day turnout, he points out that the Dems have concentrated their efforts to get the most reliable of Dem voters to vote early. By doing so, they are now able to concentrate on motivating lower propensity voters to the polls, instead of having to extend time and energy to turning out the regular Dem voters in the next few days and on election day...
Of course the Red wave could still grow into a tsunami on election day and wipe out the leads the Dems have. But at this point in time, that's not what the actual data is telling the people who are privy to the data and analyzing it. He sounds pretty confidant, so we'll see...
But if the "red wave doesn't drown us all and the main proponents and advocates of same on here are whining incessantly about "stolen elections", then redirect them back to this thread. And laugh at them...
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