Aside from pinned threads, like Music, movies books tv, and good things I (personally) consider this board primarily as a political discussion forum. I'm sure some feel differently and that's fine... But I'm obviously more engaged in the political minutia than a lot of othres. So when I didn't see a thread on the first night of actual voting in the 2024 Campaign, I figured I'd start one. Esp because there seem to be two seperate, competing visions of what roughly 130,000 or so Iowans voting last night tells us...
It also presented me with the oppty to quote a line from one of my favorite musicals, although it may be an obscure reference for some,if not all. I actually had a role in the chorus for the Starlight Musicals production of this show when I was in 7th or 8th grade, and it has a few Hoosier ties sprinkled thruout.So I thought I'd try and be clever and use that line to introduce my thread on the Iowa caucus results and the competing views (Trump/Biden) of what they show...
First off some basic stats... Less than 130,000 voters, which is below the 150,000 or so who voted in 2016. A very conservative electorate in what's become a ruby red state. Top issues like Immigration, economy, abortion... With 60^ favoring a National abortion ban, I think it's safe to say that Iowa is much more conservative than the nation as a whole.
The point is that this is a hardcore, evangelical right wing base in Iowa... When the race was called at 4% of the vote in, Donald Trump was at the 58% mark. The latest figures I saw (99%) had him at 51%, so roughly half of the base that voted last night...A sweeeping victory and smooth sailing for Trump to the nomination and beyond, except nearly 50% of these Iowa voters turned out in the cold to vote for someone other than Trump. Of course many of them will consolidate behind Trump when he faces Biden...
Except a couple of interesting points in intro and exit polling, which is being ignored by pro-Trump politicos and amplified by anti-Trump analysts. Now keep in mind these are Iowa GOP primary voters being asked these questions. Not surprisingly 64% of those voters answered yes to the question of "Is Trump fit to be POTUS if convicted"? But that means nearly a third of IOwa GOP voters said No (31%). A poll of likely GOP Caucusgoers by the Des Moines Register found that in a Trump Biden race 71% said they would vote for Trump, but 11% of likely GOP caucus voters said they would vote for Biden.
As BTC points out in one of the linked anti-Trump videos, those are potentially catastrophic numbers in an election where the margins are so tight. And back to Iowa responses, only 50% of the voters in Iowa said they considered themselves "MAGA" and nearly 7-10 self identified Haley voters said they would not support Trump if he's the nominee...
So with that in mind the linked videos demonstrating competing analysis of Iowa results...First the pro-Trump...
Now what strikes me is not a single one of those videos addresses any of the facts I listed above regarding the (hearty) portion of the Iowa GOP electorate. For example does OReilly's point about MAGA voters wanting an "avenger" have much relevance when only 50% of the voters in a deeply red state like Iowa self-identify as MAGA? And with Trump heading to NYC today to face EJ Carroll in a 2nd defamation trial where he has already been previously found liable for "sexual assault", how does that further erode his support among the 31% who said a criminal conviction makes him unqualified to be POTUS?
So here are a couple of pro-Dem videos providing analysis which (may) over amplify those points. Curious what anyone who watches both sets of videos thinks? And also if anyone knows the musical I referenced above?...
It also presented me with the oppty to quote a line from one of my favorite musicals, although it may be an obscure reference for some,if not all. I actually had a role in the chorus for the Starlight Musicals production of this show when I was in 7th or 8th grade, and it has a few Hoosier ties sprinkled thruout.So I thought I'd try and be clever and use that line to introduce my thread on the Iowa caucus results and the competing views (Trump/Biden) of what they show...
First off some basic stats... Less than 130,000 voters, which is below the 150,000 or so who voted in 2016. A very conservative electorate in what's become a ruby red state. Top issues like Immigration, economy, abortion... With 60^ favoring a National abortion ban, I think it's safe to say that Iowa is much more conservative than the nation as a whole.
The point is that this is a hardcore, evangelical right wing base in Iowa... When the race was called at 4% of the vote in, Donald Trump was at the 58% mark. The latest figures I saw (99%) had him at 51%, so roughly half of the base that voted last night...A sweeeping victory and smooth sailing for Trump to the nomination and beyond, except nearly 50% of these Iowa voters turned out in the cold to vote for someone other than Trump. Of course many of them will consolidate behind Trump when he faces Biden...
Except a couple of interesting points in intro and exit polling, which is being ignored by pro-Trump politicos and amplified by anti-Trump analysts. Now keep in mind these are Iowa GOP primary voters being asked these questions. Not surprisingly 64% of those voters answered yes to the question of "Is Trump fit to be POTUS if convicted"? But that means nearly a third of IOwa GOP voters said No (31%). A poll of likely GOP Caucusgoers by the Des Moines Register found that in a Trump Biden race 71% said they would vote for Trump, but 11% of likely GOP caucus voters said they would vote for Biden.
As BTC points out in one of the linked anti-Trump videos, those are potentially catastrophic numbers in an election where the margins are so tight. And back to Iowa responses, only 50% of the voters in Iowa said they considered themselves "MAGA" and nearly 7-10 self identified Haley voters said they would not support Trump if he's the nominee...
So with that in mind the linked videos demonstrating competing analysis of Iowa results...First the pro-Trump...
Now what strikes me is not a single one of those videos addresses any of the facts I listed above regarding the (hearty) portion of the Iowa GOP electorate. For example does OReilly's point about MAGA voters wanting an "avenger" have much relevance when only 50% of the voters in a deeply red state like Iowa self-identify as MAGA? And with Trump heading to NYC today to face EJ Carroll in a 2nd defamation trial where he has already been previously found liable for "sexual assault", how does that further erode his support among the 31% who said a criminal conviction makes him unqualified to be POTUS?
So here are a couple of pro-Dem videos providing analysis which (may) over amplify those points. Curious what anyone who watches both sets of videos thinks? And also if anyone knows the musical I referenced above?...
