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Kamala Harris will not be the nominee

I assume you know how betting markets work? All they care about is getting even betting on both sides, or to get the end outcome payouts relatively even on both sides, I should say. Naturally, that often appears as if they're predicting who "they" think will be the winner. When, in fact, they don't care who wins.

It doesn't take too much deep thought to think that MAGA voters might be more certain, and more likely, to put actual money on Trump winning. So the early action is probably more heavily on Trump. Vegas has to incentivize votes on the other side.

Its their own version of "turn out the vote". Only they don't care who wins, they just need more people to bet against Trump, and their only way of helping that happen are to make the odds more enticing.
I understand how it works. People like to make money. There would be money betting on Harris’s side of the line if it was out of whack. The fact that it currently isn’t tells you people think Trump is the clear favorite right now.
 
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Okay. But woman or man, black or white, the Democratic candidate is still facing a fundamental structural obstacle so great that it makes winning a chore, even if they perform perfectly.

Why did the Tories get blown out in the UK this year? People are second-guessing Brexit? They don't like what they did to the trains? Welfare? The two-child limit? Woke bullshit? No, none of that. The Tories got wiped out because of the cost of living crisis. Period. People vote with their dollars (or pounds), and that's what they did there, and that's what they'll do here. No excitement about a new candidate will change the fact that bread is too expensive, gas is too expensive, housing is too expensive. And none of it may actually be Biden's fault, and it certainly isn't Harris' fault, but it wasn't Sunak's fault, either. It doesn't matter.

The GOP is confident about the election because this election is structurally aligned to punish the party in power, and that happens to not be them right now.
Trump is one of the few candidates that not only could, but likely will, take a lot of the focus away from those things, however. All in all, I agree with you, that's the fundamental issue that will decide this election. Just replacing Biden, no matter who they replace him with, isn't enough. The new candidate needs to effectively distance themselves from the Biden admin's record...AND from Trump. Tall task. But it was a virtual impossible task 3 days ago. Now, the door is slightly ajar.
 
Can you not read the dialogue? Brad asked what did she accomplish after an All Star bio approval by your beloved Ohio guy. She hasn't accomplished sh!t is my point.

If you're going to join a conversation learn to READ!
And she answered why does anyone care about that ... meaning she doesn't GAFF.

Learn to read indeed.
 
Doesn't matter it's still a shit hand.

You Dont Get It Over Your Head GIF
 
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I’m understand how it works. People like to make money. There would be money betting on Harris’s side of the line if it was out of whack. The fact that it currently isn’t tells you people think Trump is the clear favorite right now.
Could be. Just a wild guess, honestly just a guess, but MAGA types seem much more likely to part with their hard earned money on things like this, than non MAGA types. The crap Trump has been able to capitalize on, and get MAGA people to part with money they might be needing to otherwise pay bills and stuff...blows my mind.

I guess there are probably examples on the other side though?
 
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Vice Presidents almost always are not in a position to be recognized for anything. They are a behind-the-scenes advisor and funeral attendee. In public they nod in agreement with the President.

What VP in your lifetime has been the most accomplished, for what he or she did as VP?

There's a reason why John Adams called the vice presidency "the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived" and another vice president, John Nance Garner, said it wasn't "worth a bucket of warm spit".
 
It's Kentucky. You want to criticize the guy for not having actual magical powers? He got dealt a 2-7 and did okay with it.
Two terms is plenty of time to make some positive movement but that is just my opinion. I haven't checked recently but I know the state teacher pension was in a deficit which is problematic. Also, growth in Louisville has been stagnant, tons of progress across the river in So. Indiana.
 
I think it as telling as anything. People putting their money behind her is a BIG deal.

Once the name the VP, given them 2-3 weeks of constant rallies, TV appearances and interviews and then check back. If they knock it out of the park in those 3 weeks and then give strong debate performances, I think they'd have a very real chance of winning.

I also think it shouldn't be discounted how many people truly hate Trump and are embarrassed by him. Giving them even a halfway serviceable alternative would be enough for a decent sized subset of that group.

She wasn't even a Top 7 nominee for the last Primary. She isn't going to rally support, no matter how desperate Dems are.
 
The under-35 people need to vote in big numbers. That demographic still favors the Dems, especially on social issues (abortion, LGBTQ, gender equality, environment, etc.)

No way were they energized by Joe.

Kamala will have her chance to get them engaged in the process, but historically it's super-hard to do.
The under-35 crowd will love her. Fits perfectly with the entitlement and hand-out generation that has developed.
 
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Could be. Just a wild guess, honestly just a guess, but MAGA types seem much more likely to part with their hard earned money on things like this, than non MAGA types. The crap Trump has been able to capitalize on, and get MAGA people to part with money they might be needing to otherwise pay bills and stuff...blows my mind.

I guess there are probably examples on the other side though?
In your scenario they would be “dumb money”. If that were the case “smart money” would come in and move the line. That fact it isn’t happening tells you the market thinks Trump is a clear favorite currently. Also, most Trumper probably aren’t even betting. If I thought Harris was a good candidate, I’d bet on her right now. I like making money, trust me😂
 
And there goes the idiocracy…. Her laugh ?
No that is just annoying, probably more the churning of words she does time and time again. I think it is very simple minded to vote for her because she is a woman, if that were the case why wasn't she considered more heavily in 2020?
 
And she answered why does anyone care about that ... meaning she doesn't GAFF.

Learn to read indeed.
GFY lost one, you don't offer sh!t around here except defending mentally unstable trans pronouns. Go drink your bong water and tell her to hurry up with that meatloaf.
 
The under-35 crowd will love her. Fits perfectly with the entitlement and hand-out generation that has developed.
With 3 kids ranging from 24 to 30, I would more call them a generation adamant about

1) not demonizing people for their race, gender, or sexual orientation,
2) not taking away their rights either
3) not destroying the planet, and
4) finding sensible ways to widely promote sustainable living

They are a generation far more compassionate and far less me-first /greedy than my generation (born in the 60s).
 
In your scenario they would be “dumb money”. If that were the case “smart money” would come in and move the line. That fact it isn’t happening tells you the market thinks Trump is a clear favorite currently. Also, most Trumper probably aren’t even betting. If I thought Harris was a good candidate, I’d bet on her right now. I like making money, trust me😂
Smart money usually doesn't come in until later.

Good last point though.
 
The under-35 crowd will love her. Fits perfectly with the entitlement and hand-out generation that has developed.
I must have done something right, raised two daughters both married and all 4 under 30. Zero Harris fans, been amusing how many tik tok texts I've been getting from all of them. Even my Taylor Swift mega fan and who I swore was a left leaner is not down with Kamala.
 
No that is just annoying, probably more the churning of words she does time and time again. I think it is very simple minded to vote for her because she is a woman, if that were the case why wasn't she considered more heavily in 2020?
The churning of word bothers you, does it? So you aren’t voting for Trump, right? Speaking of simple minded.
 
GFY lost one, you don't offer sh!t around here except defending mentally unstable trans pronouns. Go drink your bong water and tell her to hurry up with that meatloaf.
You are really an angry little troll, aren’t you?m
 
She wasn't even a Top 7 nominee for the last Primary. She isn't going to rally support, no matter how desperate Dems are.
I don't think that matters one bit in a binary general race where she's running against Trump. The core base will rally and people who had reservations about Biden's age will rally right behind them if she's visible and out there.
 
The under-35 crowd will love her. Fits perfectly with the entitlement and hand-out generation that has developed.
My oldest is in that age range. She can't stand Harris, because Harris was a prosecutor. She would vote for her because she'd be the "D," but she'd not be excited about it.
 
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She wasn't even a Top 7 nominee for the last Primary. She isn't going to rally support, no matter how desperate Dems are.
I don't know how many times I have to say, "I don't actually like Harris" as a caveat, but really, as someone who doesn't like Harris, even I see that as a really dumb argument. She's about to be the Dem nominee. She's going to rally support.
 
It was clear as day Biden wouldn’t be the nominee for many months now. It’s even clearer Kamala will not be the nominee either. She’s a train wreck of a politician. She polls worse than Biden. The cheating dems will work their way around her. It may be Hillary again.
Keep your negative thoughts to yourself. She is more qualified than that convict, racist, and white supremacist, trump
 
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Do you have a positive opinion of anyone? Besides Trump that is.
I used to,,,,,but it’s faded in the past few years. I definitely cannot stand this new generation of progressives like AOC, Omar, etc.
They ooze a sentiment of dislike for the United States. The race-baiting and woke bullshit drives a wedge in this country. We had better race relations in the 70s and 80s when the color of someone’s skin wasn’t interjected into every aspect of society. Cannot stand that. And, African American voters are increasingly seeing through this facade and are sick of this notion that they are ridiculed for not turning on autopilot and voting the Democratic ticket.
 
TMP really brings out the best in people.
vbg .... it's a gift.

I love messing with the emotionally compromised, the whiners, the malcontent and the attention whores. It's a character flaw, I know, but everyone needs a hobby. Some people want to discuss and debate, I want to antagonize the easily antagonized ... into showing their true character. My efficiency rating per word count is unmatched.
 
My oldest is in that age range. She can't stand Harris, because Harris was a prosecutor. She would vote for her because she'd be the "D," but she'd not be excited about it.
You are right about one thing entitled, merit-based legacy, and tax decrease. What does a prosecutor have to do with it better a prosecutor than a rapist a convict and a white supremacist.
 
If debates matter, she will come off way better against Trump than she would against Vance, and if she picks a really good debater for VP, like Pete, then Vance's strength can be countered entirely.
So, her national polling has always been abysmal, but all of a sudden she's a great candidate? This is the same mentality that Joe has been good all along but now has to step aside. Frame it however you want Goat to make yourself feel better. She's always been a loser and that hasn't changed in the past 24 hours.

This scenario, Joe not being able to make the weigh-in, was the only way possible for her ever to have a sniff of the nomination. The only reasons it's not going another way are the financial and state delegate hurdles keeping another candidate from entering.

No one likes Kamala, including you.
 
Since many on here have an obvious case of amnesia, here you go and you're welcome...

https://californiaglobe.com/fl/vp-k... election,Democratic primary voters are black.

Since most of you with amnesia won't click on it because I posted it, here's all you need to know to bring back reality...

Kamala Harris: Unlikable Candidate

During the 2020 presidential election, Kamala Harris was the first to drop out of the 2020 race before the first votes were even cast. She was so unlikable on the campaign trail, polling revealed she was seventh place in South Carolina, where most of the Democratic primary voters are black. In California, Harris’s home state, polling revealed she was near the bottom of the pack of candidates.
 
So, her national polling has always been abysmal, but all of a sudden she's a great candidate? This is the same mentality that Joe has been good all along but now has to step aside. Frame it however you want Goat to make yourself feel better. She's always been a loser and that hasn't changed in the past 24 hours.

This scenario, Joe not being able to make the weigh-in, was the only way possible for her ever to have a sniff of the nomination. The only reasons it's not going another way are the financial and state delegate hurdles keeping another candidate from entering.

No one likes Kamala, including you.
I can't have discussions with people who don't understand English.
 
vbg .... it's a gift.

I love messing with the emotionally compromised, the whiners, the malcontent and the attention whores. It's a character flaw, I know, but everyone needs a hobby. Some people want to discuss and debate, I want to antagonize the easily antagonized ... into showing their true character. My efficiency rating per word count is unmatched.
It’s the perfect ruse when you don’t know much. Kudos
 
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I don't particularly like Kamala either, in that she comes off as smug and I wasn't with her on BLM.

But, my God, she's running against Trump.

I'm on record as saying it would be a difficult choice if the the ballot were Trump vs. Jared from Subway. Could I really pick Trump over a serial rapist pedophile? I guess MAYBE I could.

Could I really pick Trump over anyone else that's sane? No way.
 
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