Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

They had Biden at 70% to win FL

So? That means they thought Biden wins 2 out or 3 tries. That's...not much.

 

[UncleMark]

NC and SC may determine the Senate.

Graham loosing would be a shocker. Cunningham winning will be fantastic after the sexting nonsense. What a dumbass. (Although he didn't call TN for Biden.)

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

El Paso and Travis yet to report. Biden needs to pick up at least a 300,000 vote lead between those counties to have a dream at Texas.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin polls all close in 15 minutes. Could be an eventful hour.

 

[twenty02]

Graham loosing would be a shocker. Cunningham winning will be fantastic after the sexting nonsense. What a dumbass. (Although he didn't call TN for Biden.)

Don't forget Louisiana!!!

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Don't forget Louisiana!!!

Wait, who called LA and TN for Biden?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Ahia looks to be the decider.

Or Penn, either one. Biden wins either one, it probably is the decider.

 

[mcmurtry66]

That was kind of what was expected, I guess, anyway, so might as well.

PA will be High Noon, as I said a few days ago.

That would be totally fu*ked up. That would give rise to the chance of a court settled presidency

 

[kurt cloverdales]

if you all could know the final result right now would you like to know, or do you enjoy the drama of election night

 

[toastedbread]

So? That means they thought Biden wins 2 out or 3 tries. That's...not much.

So far this is going about as well as trump could have dreamed of... so hard to say anything other than this is very good for Trump so far...

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Or Penn, either one. Biden wins either one, it probably is the decider.

I may be wrong but i thought trump could still will while losing PA. I don't think he can if he loses AHIA

 

[HillzHoozier]

FL in the Trump bag. Surprising.

To whom?

 

[Courtsensetwo]

if you all could know the final result right now would you like to know, or do you enjoy the drama of election night

I would want to know so I could go to bed.

 

[toastedbread]

I may be wrong but i thought trump could still will while losing PA. I don't think he can if he loses AHIA

Comes down to PA and AZ i think. Biden needs one of the two.

 

[twenty02]

NC setting up to be interesting.

89% chance of Biden win.

 

[twenty02]

Wait, who called LA and TN for Biden?

I did...... duh!

(Guess you missed that, had a little map trouble)

 

[UncleMark]

Hale up by 5000 votes with 50% reporting per Associated Press.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I may be wrong but i thought trump could still will while losing PA. I don't think he can if he loses AHIA

That's because if he loses Ohio, he almost certainly loses PA, too.

 

[kurt cloverdales]

anyone want to make a prediction on what we have seen so far, trump or biden

 

[Courtsensetwo]

NC setting up to be interesting.

NC counted mail in first

 

[IUJIM]

NC looking good for Biden

 

[IUJIM]

Interesting on NC. Fox says 89% Biden, NYT says 73% Trump. Both with 73% in

 

[sglowrider]

Nate Silver may well be dead by morning. 538 in shambles.

 

[UncleMark]

That Texas map that Kornacki is in front of looks a lot more blue than it is -- the gray counties look blue.

 

[twenty02]

NC counted mail in first

It's already at 75% reported. And a 200k+ margin m

 

[UncleMark]

Don't forget Louisiana!!!

Too early to call per Brian Williams.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

It's already at 75% reported. And a 200k+ margin m

Nice W for Biden if it holds. Concerned bout Tillis though.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Rumor according to Chris Christie, Black vote was poor in Philly, Cleveland, and Milwaukee,

 

[IUJIM]

It's already at 75% reported. And a 200k+ margin m

Not sure I understand. NYT now up to 79% Trump

 

[IUJIM]

Not sure I understand. NYT now up to 79% Trump

Now 81% Trump

 

[UncleMark]

Early Ohio numbers look promising.

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Now 81% Trump

NYT Biden +3 @ 77%

 

[Courtsensetwo]

Graham +10

 

[IUJIM]

NYT Biden +3 @ 77%

Florida
Est. 92% reported
MARGIN
EST.

Trump +3.1
Trump +1.8 to Trump +4
WIN
PROB.

Very likely Trump
>95% Trump
Georgia
Est. 32% reported

Trump +4
Biden +3 to Trump +10

Probably Trump
82% Trump
North Carolina
Est. 77% reported

Trump +1.4
Biden +0.8 to Trump +4

Probably Trump
85% Trump

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nate Silver may well be dead by morning. 538 in shambles.

What are you talking about?

 

[twenty02]

Now 81% Trump

Have no idea....these NYT numbers and Fox News are like total polar opposite.

Honestly I don't trust the NYT's analytical ability whatsoever, so not looking at them.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Have no idea....these NYT numbers and Fox News are like total polar opposite.

Honestly I don't trust the NYT's analytical ability whatsoever, so not looking at them.

It looks to me the Fox numbers are crazy. So who knows.

 

[stollcpa]

El Paso and Travis yet to report. Biden needs to pick up at least a 300,000 vote lead between those counties to have a dream at Texas.

Trump wins Texas 2-3%

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Have no idea....these NYT numbers and Fox News are like total polar opposite.

Honestly I don't trust the NYT's analytical ability whatsoever, so not looking at them.

Probably should ignore the NYT's needles. Their website is useful as an easy-to-use dashboard for looking at results, but for projections, they've ate their own ass too many times.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Trump wins Texas 2-3%

You might be right. He's got a 260K lead in Travis, and El Paso hasn't reported yet, but even if El Paso gives him another 100K, it might be hard for him to withstand those little pricks from each of those small red counties as they come in.