Same. I really like the on-air talent on MSNBC for the election coverage.
Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
Yeah, if you don’t watch Kornacke you’re not doing it right. I haven’t watched more than 15 minutes of Fox in 20 years, and that was in a dentist office waiting room. I switched dentists after that.
Turnout numbers are insane. Florida and Texas have both passed 10 million voters for the first time - California is the only state to have done it previously.
Harris County (Houston) is already at 1.5 million, with some projecting 1.7 million when it's over. They had 1.3 million votes in 2016.
Harris County (Houston) is already at 1.5 million, with some projecting 1.7 million when it's over. They had 1.3 million votes in 2016.
Kornake, Rachel, and Nicolle Wallace are outstanding. Joy Reid can take a hike.
So, here's a first world problem: This is the first big election since I cut the cable on my smart TV, and switching back and forth between channels is a PITA when compared to cable, and the local channels are on the other end of the "dial" from the big news networks.
Any advice?
That’s why you’re on The Cooler. What could be better than our expert analysis after the drinks start flowing!So, here's a first world problem: This is the first big election since I cut the cable on my smart TV, and switching back and forth between channels is a PITA when compared to cable, and the local channels are on the other end of the "dial" from the big news networks.
Any advice?
So, here's a first world problem: This is the first big election since I cut the cable on my smart TV, and switching back and forth between channels is a PITA when compared to cable, and the local channels are on the other end of the "dial" from the big news networks.
Any advice?
No advice. I am in the same boat. I just keep remembering my outrageous DIRECTV bill and I'm suddenly ok with the mild inconvenience.
I wonder where people are getting these "numbers" from Florida? I can't find any actual numbers. just a lot of speculation. The actual numbers will start coming in about an hour. correct?
Florida will start releasing early vote results at 7:30, and Election Day results at 8:00.
The only numbers are number of ballots cast, and the party registration numbers of those ballots.
Polls don't close in FL until 8p EST.. later for the panhandle.
So, here's a first world problem: This is the first big election since I cut the cable on my smart TV, and switching back and forth between channels is a PITA when compared to cable, and the local channels are on the other end of the "dial" from the big news networks.
Any advice?
Your TV does not have any sort of "recent" channels? I use Roku, and I have a menu that has just the 10 most recent channels.
I think you're off by an hour. 7 for most of the state, 8 for the panhandle.
Are you telling us that Trump did not object/pan the polls to be open beyond the normal hours?
From Dan Hopkins, on the 538 blog:
I don't think that was necessarily the case in 2016, where there was strong evidence that Trump poached some key Sanders people from the Dem party (although some would rightfully argue that those Sanders supporters weren't ever really Dems to begin with).
Building on Lee’s post about how Sanders might have done in a general election against Trump, I recently conducted a national survey of Americans over 30, whom I have been tracking for 12 years. Ninety-two percent of respondents would have stuck with the same party regardless of the Democrats’ nominee, but 4 percent who were with Biden then said “neither” when asked to choose between Trump and Sanders — and another 1 percent backed Biden and then Trump. By contrast, just 1 percent backed Sanders but not Biden. So Biden does seem to hold onto a sliver of voters who said they wouldn’t back Sanders.
I don't think that was necessarily the case in 2016, where there was strong evidence that Trump poached some key Sanders people from the Dem party (although some would rightfully argue that those Sanders supporters weren't ever really Dems to begin with).
She's Ukrainian. She came to the US in 2000 and married that same year and became a citizen in 2006. She sounds a little like our first lady but apparently has some actual skills as an accountant and taught at the Kelley School of Business.
Victoria Spartz - Wikipedia
She's Ukrainian. She came to the US in 2000 and married that same year and became a citizen in 2006. She sounds a little like our first lady but apparently has some actual skills as an accountant and taught at the Kelley School of Business.
Victoria Spartz - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The first primary commercial of her's I saw said that she was from Ukraine and knew the horrors of socialism. That was how long it took me to lose respect for her (tying in another thread).
The starting point - here's the most cautious map you could reasonably have. This is what the EC looks like if you only assign those states/districts where a candidate has a 15+ point lead.
Of course, a lot of those brown states aren't really competitive. Biden isn't winning Mississippi, and Trump isn't winning Virginia. But I had to draw a line somewhere, and I wanted it to be absurdly high for these purposes, and 15 was a nice round number.
Of course, a lot of those brown states aren't really competitive. Biden isn't winning Mississippi, and Trump isn't winning Virginia. But I had to draw a line somewhere, and I wanted it to be absurdly high for these purposes, and 15 was a nice round number.
Biden up 3% among NPA voters in Florida. Combined with GOP turnout advantage, that is NOT enough for Biden to win Florida, unless he also outpaces Trump among cross-party voters by 2 or 3 points.
Indiana could be a bellwether for the Midwest no matter how it goes. I think Trump taking IN is a forgone conclusion but if Trump goes from winning IN by 20 points in ‘16 to only winning IN by 10 or so, Trump could be in trouble in the other midwest states save Ohio. I think Trump wins OH by 1-2 points.
Trump's already in trouble in other Midwestern states. It's very unlikely he will win Michigan or Wisconsin. His only path to victory appears to be the clean sweep through the sun belt, followed by holding on in Pennsylvania. That gets him just barely over the hump.
Doesn't Trump ever catch a break as the favorite son? New York went overwhelming for Clinton in 2016 and if Florida goes for Biden...he needs to move to Indiana when he runs for his third term.
Trump won PA by, what, 0.7%? Hopefully Biden managed to overcome that.
Some smaller Indiana counties starting to report:
DeKalb Trump +38 (+48 in 2016)
Steuben Trump +23 (+44)
Jay Trump +42 (+48)
Greene Trump +39 (+53)
(Edit: None of this reporting is complete, however, so they don't mean much.)
DeKalb Trump +38 (+48 in 2016)
Steuben Trump +23 (+44)
Jay Trump +42 (+48)
Greene Trump +39 (+53)
(Edit: None of this reporting is complete, however, so they don't mean much.)
Trump definitely has lost ground with Republicans. Let's hope it's enough where it will make a difference.
There's a new one in PA complaining about absentee voters being notified they have a problem with their ballots and being allowed to cure them.
The tenor from courts thus far has been pro voters - as it should be
I think at the moment, we have to go with the working assumption that these types of lawsuits are going to eventually resolve with votes being counted. Not that I don't understand the fear that they would decide otherwise, but as we are analyzing the returns, I don't see the value in assuming the courts are going to throw out a bunch of ballots.
These early returns in IN and KY look only moderately painful for Trump. If they represent only early votes, and the same day votes shift red as much as we think they do, I don't think these numbers portend any sort of meaningful blue shift in these counties.
Granted, other than Kenton in KY, none of the important suburban counties have reported anything, yet.
Granted, other than Kenton in KY, none of the important suburban counties have reported anything, yet.
Looks likely that Vermont, Virginia, Indiana, and Kentucky will all be called right away. Will be interesting if South Carolina is, too. My guess is it will.
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