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Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

One more on Indiana. Trump won Allen by 19 in 2016. He's up on early returns by 14 this year. That's not nearly enough of a shift to think there's any sort of meaningful blue movement. Of course, Allen is sort of a strange county. Semi-urban, but not one of those suburban counties that everyone wants to know about, like Hamilton. Still, my guess is that Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky by wide 2016-level margins.
 
Really high turnout must be happening in Florida, one precinct has 105%.

MIAMI — In the rarest of feats, every registered voter at a precinct in the University of Central Florida in Orlando cast a ballot in the election, according to the Orange County supervisor of elections’ office.

In fact, the turnout at precinct 538 actually exceeded 100 percent, because a few voters switched their addresses on Election Day and moved into the precinct, said Danaë Rivera-Marasco, an elections spokeswoman.

The turnout stood at 105 percent shortly before the polls closed at 7 p.m., with 795 ballots cast. When the voter rolls closed ahead of the election, the precinct had 754 people registered to vote there.
 
It just occurred to me that these various decision desks might be taking radically different approaches to how to deal with all this early voting, so we might see the different networks calling wildly different groups of states at very different times.
 
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with partial results by county in Indiana, I see Trump staying about the same, and I see Biden up 3-4 pts vs Clinton, basically taking whatever vote went for Johnson in 2016
 
with partial results by county in Indiana, I see Trump staying about the same, and I see Biden up 3-4 pts vs Clinton, basically taking whatever vote went for Johnson in 2016
I'm not sure there's overlap in terms of who the voters are, but in terms of the final numbers, I think that's a fair take.
 
Miami Dade- 2016 63%-33% CLINTON

2020-W/ 84% reporting- 54-45 Biden
 
I think when push comes to shove, Florida gonna Florida. Probably will be very close.

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Whelp. Stick a fork in Florida. You could see what was happening with the Miami early vote #s. No dem turnout. Guess it boils down to PA, NC, AZ. Trump should be 25% to win at this point.
 
Republicans registered voters like crazy in FL. Dems played possum with covid and sat on their arses. Florida result speaks for itself.
 
I know...but the bookies don't usually give money away...

Live odds for will Trump be re-elected are No -200 and Yes +176
Bookies odds don’t reflect actual probability this close to an event. Odds adjust to try to split the pot with an edge towards the juice. This just means that there are a ton of people and money betting on Trump so they shift the odds to entice counter bids for Biden.

Source: I gamble
 
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Whelp. Stick a fork in Florida. You could see what was happening with the Miami early vote #s. No dem turnout. Guess it boils down to PA, NC, AZ. Trump should be 25% to win at this point.

Who could have seen this with a great political mind like Bloomberg basically running Florida for Biden.
 
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