Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

MSNBC calls CO for Prez, but not Senate.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Nate Silver on why Ohio could be critical:

One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.​

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I think the computers at Fox and NYT are struggling with early vs late vote.

 

[stollcpa]

You might be right. He's got a 260K lead in Travis, and El Paso hasn't reported yet, but even if El Paso gives him another 100K, it might be hard for him to withstand those little pricks from each of those small red counties as they come in.

Lots of redneck red counties in west Texas.

 

[kurt cloverdales]

Nate Silver on why Ohio could be critical:

One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.​

your saying if biden wins ohio trump only has a 1 percent chance to win the election, i cant buy that

 

[UncleMark]

Nate Silver on why Ohio could be critical:

One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.​

Kind of stating the obvious. He has no chance without Ohio. With Ohio, it all comes down to Pennsylvania.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Lots of redneck red counties in west Texas.

El Paso just reported. Only 74%, but Biden only up by 80K. That's not going to do it.

Still some blue counties along the river to report, too, but Texas is looking like a pipe dream at this point.

 

[toastedbread]

I think the computers at Fox and NYT are struggling with early vs late vote.

NYT is the best in the business at this.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Kind of stating the obvious. He has no chance without Ohio. With Ohio, it all comes down to Pennsylvania.

Pretty much.

 

[stollcpa]

Nate Silver on why Ohio could be critical:

One thing that makes this situation pretty hard to analyze is how much we believe in Biden’s lead in Ohio. If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50 percent shot to win the Electoral College, per our scenario tester. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1 percent.​

Some time tonight Silver may be right.

 

[UncleMark]

El Paso just reported. Only 74%, but Biden only up by 80K. That's not going to do it.

Still some blue counties along the river to report, too, but Texas is looking like a pipe dream at this point.

It was fun while it lasted.

 

[IUJIM]

Probably should ignore the NYT's needles. Their website is useful as an easy-to-use dashboard for looking at results, but for projections, they've ate their own ass too many times.

They hit the mark early in Fla, and so far in Ga also. I think they are better than you are giving credit to. and they are trending strong for Trump, up to 92%. Can;t imagine they are just throwing numbers around. Margin is down to about 75K, with 18% still to count

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

MSNBC calling Colorado for Hickenlooper.

 

[stollcpa]

MSNBC calling Colorado for Hickenlooper.

Fox called him long ago.

 

[UncleMark]

Carville said we would know by 10pm. I don't think I want him to be right.

 

[sglowrider]

Some time tonight Silver may be right.

I called NY a few days ago.

 

[UncleMark]

MSNBC calling Colorado for Hickenlooper.

There's one.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Carville said we would know by 10pm. I don't think I want him to be right.

Yeah, that doesn't sound good.

 

[sdhoosier]

interesting...

Odds Shark

@OddsShark
·
6m

BREAKING: Donald Trump is the betting favorite to win the 2020 US Presidential Election for the first time since September 2nd. #ElectionDay

Updated odds (per Bovada): Donald Trump -130 Joe Biden EVEN

 

[UncleMark]

I called NY a few days ago.

You're a fvcking seer.

 

[outside shooter]

Maybe the Kasich endorsement is helping Biden in Ohio. Still hopeful there.

 

[ribbont]

Maybe the Kasich endorsement is helping Biden in Ohio. Still hopeful there.

I predicted 270-268 Biden. May be 269 all!

 

[IUJIM]

Oooops, pulling Va back???

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

@twenty02 Looks like Trump will win Hamilton by 11-12 points, which is worse than the 20 he beat Hillary by, but I'm not sure it represents enough of a suburban shift to really make Democrats feel extra great about Ohio/Iowa/Pennsylvania.

 

[mrhighlife]

Eh I'm moving on. Trump is going to win. Hopefully the Senate can still be had.

But I'm moving on. Go HOOSIERS! Beat Michigan!

 

[HillzHoozier]

NYT is the best in the business at this.

They were right on it in 2016.

 

[twenty02]

Well this clearly now not going to be settled tonight. Looking like the long wait on PA will occur. More circus.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Thank God my pizza and wings just arrived.

 

[BCCHoosier]

Eh I'm moving on. Trump is going to win. Hopefully the Senate can still be had.

But I'm moving on. Go HOOSIERS! Beat Michigan!

Agree. Not feeling good and you can sense the shift in the mood on the faces of political talking heads in cable. They are uneasy.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Thank God my pizza and wings just arrived.

And booze I hope

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

And booze I hope

I stocked up this afternoon after voting.

 

[UncleMark]

Spartz pulling away from Hale, 51-45 with 69% reporting.

 

[Hank Reardon]

If it helps, I think these two kids in the Hallmark movie are finally going to get together. Coming down to the final 10 minutes...

EDIT: Happy ending.

 

[sdhoosier]

Odds Shark

@OddsShark
·
2m

Donald Trump is now the -340 betting favorite (77.27% implied odds) per Bovada to win the 2020 US Presidential Election. #ElectionDay

Latest odds: Donald Trump -340 Joe Biden +240


$340 wins $100 on Trump
$100 on Biden wins $240

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Odds Shark

@OddsShark
·
2m

Donald Trump is now the -340 betting favorite (77.27% implied odds) per Bovada to win the 2020 US Presidential Election. #ElectionDay

Latest odds: Donald Trump -340 Joe Biden +240


$340 wins $100 on Trump
$100 on Biden wins $240

They are desperately trying to neutralize this payout.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Media and polls suspect again

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Media and polls suspect again

Why? Trump is winning in states that were rated toss-ups. What's suspect about that?

 

[sglowrider]

Great to see being one of the biggest hypocrites has consequences.

Not.

 

[sdhoosier]

Lord help us...


Odds Shark

@OddsShark
·
2m

Announcement: Donald Trump has moved all the way up to being the -600 favorite (85.71% implied odds) at Bovada to win the 2020 US Presidential Election. #ElectionNight

#Elections2020

Updated odds: Donald Trump -600 Joe Biden +375

 

[Hank Reardon]

So catch me up...what’s the basis for the gloom here? Other than Florida...which really we should have figured for Trump anyway...what has Trump taken that wasn’t expected?