Goat's POLS Thread for Mature Adults

[Marvin the Martian]

I've go no proof. In fact, that entire line was a remnant of an earlier post I decided against making and meant to delete after I couldn't find any evidence. It looks weird to me, but who knows if Trump votes were added afterwards or previous to the Biden total.

That's one source, uncorroborated obviously. At any rate, that was posted by accident. I stand by my characterization of outside shooter's post about Trump calling up the Proud Boys as dumb. 😃

This one turns out to have been a typo not in an official count but in one of the vote tracking companies, Decision Desk. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...d-false-post-michigan-votes-biden/6164385002/

 

[UncleMark]

I think like doctors, one critical attribute/requirement you need to be a president is to have shitty handwriting.

I wonder if trump's stationary has lines?

 

[UncleMark]

This one turns out to have been a typo not in an official count but in one of the vote tracking companies, Decision Desk. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...d-false-post-michigan-votes-biden/6164385002/

That's what they want you to believe.

 

[Standard Issue]

I wonder if trump's stationary has lines?

It's nice that you think he can write.

If you can't read is the ability to write possible?

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

View embedded media

😨 😂

I forgot about that one. He cancels out Hank Johnson.

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Video in this thread of that event showed unarmed white protesters, but you started your post about them with, "Speaking of white supremacists/nationalists... " Describing them that way is not fair to the visual evidence, and I think that's what got Ranger started on this exchange between you two.

The poster in question has a strong relationship with emotion and a weak one with the facts when it comes to criticizing Trump supporters. Said poster is an excellent catalyst for Trump supporters turning out at the polls.

 

[Sope Creek]

Okay Sope, what are Georgia's tie-breaking laws?

Within a 0.5% margin, a candidate can request a recount. Or an election official, candidate or political party can request one if there appears to be an error or discrepancy in the returns. The request must be made within two days after county certification of the initial vote.

There is no automatic recount provision . . . it has to be requested.

 

[outside shooter]

The militia mob in AZ seems on the verge of shutting things down there

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Within a 0.5% margin, a candidate can request a recount. Or an election official, candidate or political party can request one if there appears to be an error or discrepancy in the returns. The request must be made within two days after county certification of the initial vote.

There is no automatic recount provision . . . it has to be requested.

Yes, but if the recount ends and it is a tie?

 

[Cortez88]

Has anyone read any quality analysis on increased turnout and that not being more favorable toward Ds? It seems like it was just assumed, and I’m guilty of it, that increased turnout was a positive for Ds. I look at Texas as a good example. So what happened? Was that assumption simply incorrect? Is there something else there that we all failed to consider? I’m interested in this piece of the puzzle.

 

[HillzHoozier]

Just sayin' what? I don't get it.

They are counting unverified mail-in ballots, so many that a candidate nobody cares about is set to get 90000 more votes than the first black president, even though the pool of Den voters is lower by 30000, in a week of protests during a pandemic.

But I'm sure it's legit.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

They are counting unverified mail-in ballots, so many that a candidate nobody cares about is set to get 90000 more votes than the first black president, even though the pool of Den voters is lower by 30000, in a week of protests during a pandemic.

But I'm sure it's legit.

Not that I'm doubting the "legit" level of your source, but who is shipwreckcrew, and what are his/her credentials and sources, especially the part about unverified ballots?
Thanks.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

538 listed the ballots left with the county's partisan lean. With 61,000 ballots left, some maths tell me that Biden will win if 1) all 61,000 are counted and 2) the ballots match or exceed the lean.

However, some portion of that 61,000 will not be signed or some other failure. The question is, how many?

Remaining Georgia votes are mostly in blue counties

COUNTY	OUTSTANDING VOTES	DEMOCRATIC LEAN IN 2016 RELATIVE TO REST OF GEORGIA
Chatham	17,157	+22
Fulton	11,200	+51
Clayton	7,408	+75
Gwinnett	7,338	+23
Forsyth	4,713	-29
Harris	3,641	-49
Bryan	3,027	-38
Laurens	1,797	-24
Putnam	1,552	-37
Sumter	1,202	+51
Cobb	700	+7
Floyd	682	-38
Burke	494	+8
Taylor	456	-18
Weighted Average		+19

 

[twenty02]

538 listed the ballots left with the county's partisan lean. With 61,000 ballots left, some maths tell me that Biden will win if 1) all 61,000 are counted and 2) the ballots match or exceed the lean.

However, some portion of that 61,000 will not be signed or some other failure. The question is, how many?

Remaining Georgia votes are mostly in blue counties

COUNTY	OUTSTANDING VOTES	DEMOCRATIC LEAN IN 2016 RELATIVE TO REST OF GEORGIA
Chatham	17,157	+22
Fulton	11,200	+51
Clayton	7,408	+75
Gwinnett	7,338	+23
Forsyth	4,713	-29
Harris	3,641	-49
Bryan	3,027	-38
Laurens	1,797	-24
Putnam	1,552	-37
Sumter	1,202	+51
Cobb	700	+7
Floyd	682	-38
Burke	494	+8
Taylor	456	-18
Weighted Average		+19

That's the overall lean, but we know that absentee tilts much larger to Dems than the overall..... so wouldn't attempt to extrapolate too much.

 

[HillzHoozier]

unverified ballots

They dont check signatures. I dont know the source but you're welcome to check the math.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

That's the overall lean, but we know that absentee tilts much larger to Dems than the overall..... so wouldn't attempt to extrapolate too much.

Right, I just did the math using the total votes remaining and using the weighted average of 19. But there isn't room for many votes to be lost, or for underperforming.

All that said, there are still provisional ballots everywhere. For example in Georgia, one doesn't have an ID they can cast a provisional ballot and come to the proper office later and show their ID. Georgia gives people 3 days to do that. Provisionals skew D and there may be a handful of those that are not yet counted.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

They dont check signatures. I dont know the source but you're welcome to check the math.

I thought the twitter name was of someone reputable that you trusted, and who has some legitimacy.

I'm sorry for making that assumption. You are just fishing around anywhere for anything that fits your narrative. Good luck.
Hint: Check QAnon...I'll bet they have some good info for you.

 

[outside shooter]

Most states do require signature matching and they use computer software to do it. It has repeatedly been held up as valid.

Georgia was cheap and chose to rely solely on the decision of the poll worker. That is their right, I guess, in our state-controlled election system. In GA, election officials, who are completely untrained in handwriting analysis, must compare the two signatures. That is a potential problem, so a judge blocked it.

Federal Judge Bars Georgia From Disenfranchising Voters on the Basis of Amateur Handwriting Analysis

Election officials have aggressively nullified ballots cast by minority voters, citing "signature mismatch."

slate.com

 

[Spartans9312]

AZ going to end up very close. Trump pretty much right where he needs to be on the Saturday/Sunday ballots, and now they are going to count/report the Monday/Tuesday ballots. The party shift between the two batches will determine whether or not Trump can catch up.

If Trump wins Arizona. Then it's probably still 50/50

 

[HillzHoozier]

I thought the twitter name was of someone reputable that you trusted, and who has some legitimacy.

I'm sorry for making that assumption. You are just fishing around anywhere for anything that fits your narrative. Good luck.
Hint: Check QAnon...I'll bet they have some good info for you.

Man, its just Twitter people tweeting tweets. I'm bringing information to light as a service to you and others here in the WC. It's 100% your choice to consume or not. You gotta admit.. there sure are a lot of these stories floating around. Say, let me know when you come across a story about Pubs manufacturing votes somewhere.

 

[UncleMark]

AZ going to end up very close. Trump pretty much right where he needs to be on the Saturday/Sunday ballots, and now they are going to count/report the Monday/Tuesday ballots. The party shift between the two batches will determine whether or not Trump can catch up.

If Trump wins Arizona. Then it's probably still 50/50

Arizona is scaring me. If we don't nail that one down (along with NV), then we have to steal GA or PA or something.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

They are counting unverified mail-in ballots, so many that a candidate nobody cares about is set to get 90000 more votes than the first black president, even though the pool of Den voters is lower by 30000, in a week of protests during a pandemic.

But I'm sure it's legit.

What?

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Man, its just Twitter people tweeting tweets. I'm bringing information to light as a service to you and others here in the WC. It's 100% your choice to consume or not. You gotta admit.. there sure are a lot of these stories floating around. Say, let me know when you come across a story about Pubs manufacturing votes somewhere.

Leslie McCrae Dowless says hi.

 

[twenty02]

Man, its just Twitter people tweeting tweets. I'm bringing information to light as a service to you and others here in the WC. It's 100% your choice to consume or not. You gotta admit.. there sure are a lot of these stories floating around. Say, let me know when you come across a story about Pubs manufacturing votes somewhere.

Let's be clear regarding PA....which is sure to be the source of most all the angst. What is happening right now was 100% by design of the GOP and Trump campaign. The counties begged the GOP controlled state legislature to allow them to count absentee votes prior to election day, but it was rebuffed. We know that nationwide mail-in ballots trend very heavily Democrat.....if they had been allowed to have been counted PA would be playing out like most of the other states.....where Biden took a big lead at the first vote report of mail-in ballots and then Trump came back with election day vote. PA would be done today, but Trump campaign did not want that...they wanted exactly what is happening so they could whine about supposed fraud for days.

None of this will matter. The votes will get all counted and there will be a winner.

 

[Fro]

Trump loses case in Georgia, this is the only thing I've seen nationally where there might have been a kernel of something about ballots being mishandled, but county attorney proved they were handled correctly. And just 53 ballots, so it won't change the count.

Remember GOP has poll-watchers & partisans at all these places and Republicans on the Election Boards.

 

[Stuffshot]

Let's be clear regarding PA....which is sure to be the source of most all the angst. What is happening right now was 100% by design of the GOP and Trump campaign. The counties begged the GOP controlled state legislature to allow them to count absentee votes prior to election day, but it was rebuffed. We know that nationwide mail-in ballots trend very heavily Democrat.....if they had been allowed to have been counted PA would be playing out like most of the other states.....where Biden took a big lead at the first vote report of mail-in ballots and then Trump came back with election day vote. PA would be done today, but Trump campaign did not want that...they wanted exactly what is happening so they could whine about supposed fraud for days.

None of this will matter. The votes will get all counted and there will be a winner.

The past couple of days have been like waiting for that damned review official in New York to tell me whether that last play was really a catch or not.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

PA would be done today, but Trump campaign did not want that...they wanted exactly what is happening so they could whine about supposed fraud for days.

I just have come around to your thinking, the GOP sets up crappy systems so that they can complain about fraud. It fits the conspiracy theorist in many of them, it creates outrage which brings in cash, and it gets to portray cities as big, bad, and scary.

 

[Cortez88]

Interesting Georgia numbers. Man this one is going to be razor thin. This information appears to be good for Biden though.

 

[HillzHoozier]

What?

They are counting unverified mail-in ballots, so many that a candidate nobody cares about is set to get 90000 more votes than the first black president, even though the pool of Dem voters is lower by 30000, in an election week marked by protests and rioting, during a pandemic.

But I'm sure it's legit.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

They are counting unverified mail-in ballots, so many that a candidate nobody cares about is set to get 90000 more votes than the first black president, even though the pool of Dem voters is lower by 30000, in an election week marked by protests and rioting, during a pandemic.

But I'm sure it's legit.

It appears the state never passed laws requiring a signature match. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/pennsylvania-court-ballot-signatures-431794

 

[UncleMark]

The past couple of days have been like waiting for that damned review official in New York to tell me whether that last play was really a catch or not.

Or whether the ball broke the plane.

 

[Spartans9312]

Arizona is scaring me. If we don't nail that one down (along with NV), then we have to steal GA or PA or something.

Gonna be recounts in the 2 Senate races in Georgia most likely.
GOP is going to lose 2 senate seats.
Dems are going to lose 8-10 house seats.
Who knows about the presidency.

 

[HillzHoozier]

I just have come around to your thinking, the GOP sets up crappy systems so that they can complain about fraud. It fits the conspiracy theorist in many of them, it creates outrage which brings in cash, and it gets to portray cities as big, bad, and scary.

I wouldn't be complaining if you could show me an example of a trove of Republican ballots showing up somewhere from out of nowhere.

 

[HillzHoozier]

It appears the state never passed laws requiring a signature match. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/pennsylvania-court-ballot-signatures-431794

Yes. So they are unverified.

 

[Spartans9312]

View embedded media

Trump loses case in Georgia, this is the only thing I've seen nationally where there might have been a kernel of something about ballots being mishandled, but county attorney proved they were handled correctly. And just 53 ballots, so it won't change the count.

Remember GOP has poll-watchers & partisans at all these places and Republicans on the Election Boards.

It will be sent to GA Supreme Court

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

I wouldn't be complaining if you could show me an example of a trove of Republican ballots showing up somewhere from out of nowhere.

Has there been a trove of Lib votes showing up out of "nowhere"?

 

[twenty02]

I just have come around to your thinking, the GOP sets up crappy systems so that they can complain about fraud. It fits the conspiracy theorist in many of them, it creates outrage which brings in cash, and it gets to portray cities as big, bad, and scary.

It's the only legitimate explanation for not allowing counties to count hundreds of thousands of mail-in votes ahead of election day.....like basically every other state managed to do.

 

[Fro]

Gonna be recounts in the 2 Senate races in Georgia most likely.
GOP is going to lose 2 senate seats.
Dems are going to lose 8-10 house seats.
Who knows about the presidency.

Warnock/Loeffler are going to a runoff in Georgia for sure on Jan 5, no recount needed there.

Collins/Ossoff might need a recount to verify Collins is for sure under 50% and that a run-off will be needed there.

I wouldn't be complaining if you could show me an example of a trove of Republican ballots showing up somewhere from out of nowhere.

I'm not complaining about record rural turnout and Trump getting 80-90% of the vote in some of these rural counties and record votes cast despite a declining population in some counties. This was a high turnout election across the board.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I wouldn't be complaining if you could show me an example of a trove of Republican ballots showing up somewhere from out of nowhere.

Russian trolls telling you that votes are mysteriously appearing doesn't make it so. Tuesday night Dems watched a big lead in Ohio just evaporate and I didn't hear this type of "it's rigged".

Vote counters work in teams, a Republican and a Democrat. Poll watchers are there. You can watch the Philly vote live. What more do we want?

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I'm not complaining about record rural turnout and Trump getting 80-90% of the vote in some of these rural counties and record votes cast despite a declining population in some counties. This was a high turnout election across the board.

Collier in Florida was over 90%, and it voted for Trump. It happens. https://www.news-press.com/story/ne...ng-floridas-highest-2020-election/6159377002/