Goat's POLS thread for election nerds.

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Starting this a little early, as I've got a strange schedule today, but I'll be checking in at various points. The rules are the same as every year: no campaigning, no fighting over policy, no insults. The election is here, the die has been cast, and this thread is for people to discuss it in an objective manner.

For a looser discussion, check out McM's thread:

Batten down the hatches gang

My prediction: pain!! Where are the winning power ball numbers?!!! WTF is going on? No more mail in voting. Enough is enough. We may not know for days. Lawsuits in PA. This is all bullshit and stupid. Vote in person. Two national holidays. Bring your Id. Designate voting stations based...

indiana.forums.rivals.com

 

[NPT]

Good luck.... I'll be around part of the day so I'm gonna watch and delete if necessary.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

I'll be at the women's game tonight, FAR more fun than any election. So I'll make a prediction now. R gain of 31 in House, Senate will be R 51-48 with a GA runoff to come.

 

[UncleMark]

Starting this a little early, as I've got a strange schedule today, but I'll be checking in at various points. The rules are the same as every year: no campaigning, no fighting over policy, no insults. The election is here, the die has been cast, and this thread is for people to discuss it in an objective manner.

You're an idiot.

 

[anon_6hv78pr714xta]

I'll be at the women's game tonight, FAR more fun than any election. So I'll make a prediction now. R gain of 31 in House, Senate will be R 51-48 with a GA runoff to come.

My prediction: one side will claim the results are illegitimate in at least 3 races.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I'll be at the women's game tonight, FAR more fun than any election. So I'll make a prediction now. R gain of 31 in House, Senate will be R 51-48 with a GA runoff to come.

Similar. I said 52-48, and a gain of R+18 to put them on 230.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

This is the day that we all wait to do our civic duty. Everyone gets to use their one true voice. Let's go Merika!

 

[Cortez88]

I think CD IN 1 is going to be very telling on how bad the Ds night will be. The chatter late has been that Greene will win this one.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

I think CD IN 1 is going to be very telling on bad the Ds night will be. The chatter late has been that Greene will win this one.

No new polls in this one, but both sides are saying it will be tight. Must all be coming from internals.

 

[BigDogMan]

What will be really interesting is if the R’s can get up to 54 or 55 in the senate. Sets up a possible supermajority scenario in 2024.

Now wouldn’t that be fun?

 

[Ladoga]

I think CD IN 1 is going to be very telling on how bad the Ds night will be. The chatter late has been that Greene will win this one.

If Green wins CD 1 and Rs get 2 or 3 of the Virginia targets and/or Rs get wins in New York, its a blood bath. I've thought it might be for about 6 weeks now

 

[Spartans9312]

Guam flips to the Republicans. Red wave starts in the ocean

 

[twenty02]

I think CD IN 1 is going to be very telling on how bad the Ds night will be. The chatter late has been that Greene will win this one.

That race and a few house races in VA will be where I'm looking early....I believe those will all be 7pm EST closings

 

[mohoosier]

Lay ‘em out there…

Senate
R 54
D 46

House
R 246
D 189

Close to 2014 results

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Lay ‘em out there…

Senate
R 54
D 46

House
R 246
D 189

Close to 2014 results

I already have it above, but Senate 52-48, House 230-205.

Dems win governor's mansions in NY, PA, WI, Repubs win in AZ, NV, OR.

 

[Spartans9312]

Polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky.

Sullivan county and Ripley county have reported what appear to be their early votes. Young leads McDermott 68-30 with just over 5,000 votes reporting

 

[Cortez88]

Polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky.

Sullivan county and Ripley county have reported what appear to be their early votes. Young leads McDermott 68-30 with just over 5,000 votes reporting

I heard some internal poll bull shit a few weeks ago saying that one was close. I didn’t believe a work of it. Young wins by a mile.

 

[Spartans9312]

Allen County has counted approximately 27,000 votes, likely corresponding to its early votes. Young leads there 49.2-49. Trump won the county in 2020 by a 54-43 margin. Allen County voters cast 127,189 in the 2018 midterm.

 

[UncleMark]

Rand is behind in KY... with 4% reporting. 😜

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Rand is behind in KY... with 4% reporting. 😜

If he ends up winning, I expect the GOP to demand an investigation.
(Sorry about this post. Delete it if it breaks the rules.)

 

[Spartans9312]

In Madison County, Young is up 56-40 with almost 16,000 votes in. If those are the early vote numbers in a working-class, 60-38 Trump-Biden county, the GOP may be heading for a strong night in similarly blue-collar Midwestern counties.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Rand is behind in KY... with 4% reporting. 😜

Fox already called it for Rand. did you not change your clocks for the time change?

 

[Spartans9312]

Crist carried the early vote in Broward County by only 62-37, an abysmal performance for a Democrat.

 

[Cortez88]

The Dade county flip is something. Wow.

 

[Spartans9312]

Florida-02 …Neal Dunn beats Al Lawson.
Lawson is the 1st Democratic incumbent of the night to lose.

 

[Spartans9312]

The Dade county flip is something. Wow.

Double-digit Red Dade is in play.

 

[UncleMark]

AZ GOP suing to keep Maricopa Co. polls open longer.

 

[Spartans9312]

DeSantis is running about 1.5% ahead of Rubio so far, and that’s with Rubio’s base in Miami overrepresented.

Both will be blowouts but DeSantis will win by a larger margin

 

[Spartans9312]

Fulton County dropped its early vote, which went Warnock +52 and Abrams +43. Kemp running 5 points ahead of Walker. They will be closer in rural areas, but Walker needs to narrow that gap.

 

[Spartans9312]

In VA, Cao and Vega are up huge with a very small amounts of votes in. Kiggins is up 58-42 in VA-02 with about 4% counted.

 

[Spartans9312]

Hassan is up 62-36 on Bolduc with 2% in

 

[Spartans9312]

Salazar leads her urban Miami seat, FL-27, 55-44 in the early vote. That margin should grow as Election Day votes skew Republican. Trump barely won it in 2020

 

[Spartans9312]

DeSantis already leads in Hillsborough County (Tampa) with a lot of Election Day vote still to count. Crist will likely carry only 6 counties—and the 6th, Palm Beach, will be by a very small margin

 

[Spartans9312]

With 11% in, Kiggins is still up 58-42 in VA-02.

 

[Spartans9312]

DeSantis is now leading in Osceola County

 

[Spartans9312]

In GA-02, West (R) is up on Bishop (D) 52-48

 

[Cortez88]

Can we finally quit calling FLA a swing state? It’s been red for a while and it keeps getting more red.

 

[Spartans9312]

Beasley is up 58-40 on Budd, but it’s all early vote, about 30% of the expected vote.

 

[Spartans9312]

In OH-13, Sykes (D) is up on MCG (R) 58-42, with 9% reporting, all early vote.

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

In GA-02, West (R) is up on Bishop (D) 52-48

YOu follw this stuff pretty serious I see. I applaud your attention!