Goat's POLS nerd thread
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
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I think they are losing pretty much exactly as bad as expected. The Dems are slightly overperforming in the House, slightly underperforming in the Senate, and probably breaking even on the state level.
Huh? They lost most of the state races that they poured money into. Florida, Georgia, Ohio, etc. And Georgia wasn’t even close.
It seems that, once again, polling failed in its specifics - individual races, if not the generalities - Dems win House, Pubs hold Senate. I think in the end the Pubs will hold more Senate seats than predicted - 54 or 55. Nonetheless, polling has missed again reflecting the liklihood that pollsters cannot figure out a valid sample representing the actual electorate.
They poured money into a lot more than that, including some places they shouldn't have. But that's not what I'm talking about. It terms of numbers, the GOP is doing slightly better in the Senate than expected (but well within the margin), while the Dems are doing slightly better in the House than expected (but well within the margin). I don't see what's so surprising about tonight.
It seems to me that the pollsters have done about as well as they usually do, which is pretty darn good, comparatively speaking. They got the broad strokes just about right, which is all you can expect. A few individual races here and there will always be wrong. The pollsters thought Donnelly would win a close one. He lost a close one. They thought Pete Sessions would win rather handily. He lost. It happens. But overall, they got it pretty much right.
Looks like they need to build more Women's bathrooms at the Congress. Apparently 100 women have been voted in.
Not blue wave but the female wave.
Not blue wave but the female wave.
Indiana has elected their first openly gay lawmaker
https://www.wthr.com/article/longtime-state-sen-mike-delph-loses-democratic-challenger
His opponent, Mike Delph was a religious wingnut that spent his time in office fascinated with gay weddings.
https://www.wthr.com/article/longtime-state-sen-mike-delph-loses-democratic-challenger
His opponent, Mike Delph was a religious wingnut that spent his time in office fascinated with gay weddings.
The polls basically predicted the outcome, Federally..they are very good on the national level with gauging national opinion.
The state-level polling leaves a lot to be desired.
I didn't even realize Mike Delph was still around. I have to admit, I'm not sad to see him gone.
The problem is they don't do enough state-level polling. That was the big problem in 2016, and it continues to be a problem. I guess there isn't the money there to do it? Which is hard to believe in a midterm that cost 475 bazillion dollars.
Steve King now down 5 in Iowa 4. This could be the last feel-good story of the night.
BTW, keep an eye on ME-2, where neither major party candidate is likely to hit 50%, which means it will be determined by newly-implemented instant runoff voting.
She's underperformed as a leader since she was one, and everyone hates her. You don't put up as your symbol the one everyone hates.
Plenty of polls in FL. Gillum was up in almost every one.....that's what a polling error looks like...something systemic that they are doing.... Same issue as 2016 for that state.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...a_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html#polls
And Indiana had plenty enough polls....and 538 had JD at a 70-80% chance to win.... and he got smoked.
This. She is not helping the Ds. Why keep trotting her out to be the boat anchor? Plus the Ds need to build the bench.
Florida is going to end up within the margin. Indiana...well, I won't defend that until I see the final numbers. Looks like a big swing-and-a-miss at the moment, I can't deny that.
But over 50 states, you will get some misses. Overall, the pollsters are doing just as well as they've always done, which is "not bad, not bad at all."
And I personally don't hate her at all. I think she's great. But I also thought Franken was great. He was one of the best Senators we had. But see how quickly he became dead weight? Pelosi has been dead weight for years. Sometimes you need to leave sentimentality behind and just do what's best to keep the boat from sinking. Time to throw Pelosi overboard.
Within the MOE for one poll.....not for 20+ polls that averaged out at nearly +3-+4
Pollsters are great, I love statistics. Actually enjoyed it in college, when everyone seemed to hate it.
Valid point.
I never understood why everyone hated the quant classes. They were my favorites.
If her strategic prowess, political instincts, fundraising acumen, or leadership abilities were standout, it might merit considering her despite that negative anchor in perception, but they aren't. She's a fine representative for her district and a voice of significance, but I don't see the value of her being the driver of the House Democratic agenda.
I'll tell you something hilarious... I was at the palm beach party democratic headquarters a few weeks ago and they were telling me to try and encourage people to come out for nelson as well as Gillum because they were worried about that Nelson was underperforming. I thought the entire race that Nelson would outperform Gillum. Sure enough I was right. Gillum's policies were too left for Florida. He left some Nelson voters on the table. One race is called and the other isn't completely over.
That's what it amounts to. Nothing wrong with her, as her. Just isn't right for leadership because she doesn't provide enough to make up for the negatives.
Looks like Steve King will survive...as the only Republican from Iowa.
Edit: To be clear, he's currently up by 151 votes with many thousands outstanding. That's just what the talking heads are saying.
Edit: To be clear, he's currently up by 151 votes with many thousands outstanding. That's just what the talking heads are saying.
At least the Alt-right will have a seat at table of doing nothing. Being a minority house member with zero leadership means he'll be going to Post Office openings for the next 2 years.... or ranting on fringe TV
I did bet on politics one year for a living
could barely trade tonight as the site was crashing constantly. I think the people behind Gillum, Abrams, etc had confirmation bias. I.e. they were so in love with the candidate that they could not objectively evaluate the state and its views.
Frankly, I think the democratic party is way off on their strategy and this thread is a good reflection of it. This was a very bad day for democrats assuming that Scott holds on.
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