They will run massive margins in California. Losing Florida sucked though. That was very unexpected.
Goat's POLS nerd thread
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
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They will run massive margins in California. Losing Florida sucked though. That was very unexpected.
I'd hold your horses a bit I think GOP is still 10% to win the house.
for 2020 the 40% of african american men in Florida who had been disenfranchised are no longer disenfranchised.
Yea, perhaps. How many votes does that translate to. This was a very, very poor result.
Not a bad night for Trump, but not a bad night for Dems, either. Senate wasn't going to happen, most likely, we all knew that, but they are going to get a workable majority in the House, plus some good results in state races.
Oh I don’t think it’s so great. The investigations will begin in January.
Only in the Senate, where it is terrible. If the House can get to mid 30s, that was at expectation. Some governors switched as well.
The Senate loss is why I think Kavanaugh is the watershed. The Dems seem to perform as expected in the House (maybe?) and underperform in the Senate.
This was one of the worst maps the Dems have ever faced. Don't read too much into it. Don't get me wrong, the Senate is certainly slanted toward the GOP, but this year was uniquely bad for the Dems.
Don't forget, one thing no one is talking about, there are a number of state legislative chambers up in the air, too.
i've posted this before, but take a look at the 2020 and 2022 map. There are literally no pickup opportunities.
Tonight was an absolute disaster. The house is up every 2 years and has little power.
Edit link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...enate-map-couldnt-have-come-at-a-better-time/
You've got that backwards. His admin is going to spend the next two years answering subpoenas and giving testimony.
That'll play right into his hand. Unless you come up with some smoking gun....which is a longshot.
I think it was 1988, Dem pollster Patrick Caddell said the Democrats could not win the presidency before the end of the century. 2 years ago the debate was if the GOP could survive.
Politics has a very short memory. If a Dem governor can win in Kansas, why can't Dem Senators?
There were "no" pickup opportunities in 2012, but the Dems did, anyway. That's one reason this year was so difficult. 2020 and 2022 are much better maps than this year, no question.
Your link proves my point.
Plus that kind of bs GUARANTEES he'll win 2020. He'll get the house back too and then the wall goes up. Watch...
And a Dem is about to win in Oklahoma City. You just never know in this business.
Serious question:
What does it mean if the Blue Wave and Red Wall both happen?
It looks like the Dems are going to continue to run their chip-chip-chip-marathon-beats-a-sprint victory in the House, along with pickups in a number of state races, but at the same time, the GOP will at least hold firm in the Senate, and probably pick up two or three seats. So, what does it mean that two different and opposite (in theory) possibilities both seem to be coming true?
What does it mean if the Blue Wave and Red Wall both happen?
It looks like the Dems are going to continue to run their chip-chip-chip-marathon-beats-a-sprint victory in the House, along with pickups in a number of state races, but at the same time, the GOP will at least hold firm in the Senate, and probably pick up two or three seats. So, what does it mean that two different and opposite (in theory) possibilities both seem to be coming true?
It means we are psychotic as a nation?
The Senate map was anti Dem. The House map was anti GOP. The votes seem to reflect that.
That not much has really changed from 2 years ago..... that's my takeaway.
Yes, on the maps. But what about the divergence? Donnelly could have won. Pete Sessions could have won. But they didn't. All the House seems to be breaking Dem. All the Senate seems to be breaking GOP. What does that say? Besides psychosis?
I can see them working together on an infrastructure bill, and immigration reform.
I don't know how anyone could consider this anything other than a bad night for the Dems. They are losing all 50/50 senate seats and some senate seats they were favored in. Ohio and Florida Gov both lost. House they are holding serve.
Speaking of state government, Dems have picked up their second new trifecta, winning the Colorado Senate (the first was Illinois, with the Governorship).
The margin is about +9 overall. So it means that the electoral system is the only reason these races are competitive. Rural america is favored by the map.
How you can call these Senate losses bad while calling these House gains "holding serve" is...hard to fathom.
Ever-growing divide between urban/suburban areas that have strong economies that absorb most of the GDP growth...vs rural/regional towns that have not.
Pete Sessions district has had large population growth/transplants... and a super charged job market.
That one was a no doubter that I offered to bet a couple of liberal friends on. Neither took the $50 bet. It's not because I like Cruz (I don't) or dislike O'Rourke (I don't), it's because it never seemed the polls matched the hype for Beto. I've actually heard the guy on the radio and except for some very left ideas I'm not good with, I like his essentially positive tone. We need more of that. We've not had a lot of that in recent years.
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