Flattening?

[82hoosier]

I am not an epidemiologist, but as I understand it, areas that have already been hit hard are more likely to see a second wave that is less serious and slower-developing, since large chunks of the population will no longer be susceptible. But it also sounds like, from what people are saying, it's unlikely we have had anywhere near the proportion of the population exposed that would need to be to count on any sort of herd immunity to protect us from that second wave.

Long story short, I'd guess that if we lift restrictions too much, we'll eventually discover a need to tighten them again until we find sort of a balance that allows life to resume at some acceptable level while also keeping exposure to a minimum. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, to hear that 24-hour grocery stores remain on limited hours well into next year, so that they can continue the enhanced sanitation procedures they've implemented. We might also be eventually looking at bars and restaurants limiting their on-premise guests to numbers well below those set out by the fire mashall.

All I know is what I’ve read in the last month but the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was far more deadly than the first. I may have posted this before but it’s a very good read:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

 

[Zizkov]

Good for you guys. Clearly did something better/different than many other Euro countries

We locked down early and did a decent job of testing and tracking. I expect we may see another jump.

Outside of Italy and Spain, most European countries were able to flatten the curve enough to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

The UK did a pretty bad job and may be in for some trouble and France is putting up some bad numbers, but you aren't seeing the lack of equipment or PPE in most countries.

Until there is a vaccine, it is going to be an ongoing issue.

 

[mcmurtry66]

We locked down early and did a decent job of testing and tracking. I expect we may see another jump.

Outside of Italy and Spain, most European countries were able to flatten the curve enough to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

The UK did a pretty bad job and may be in for some trouble and France is putting up some bad numbers, but you aren't seeing the lack of equipment or PPE in most countries.

Until there is a vaccine, it is going to be an ongoing issue.

Bill Gates is trying....

 

[Zizkov]

Bill Gates is trying....

There have been a lot of progress from groups all over the world. they will get there, but it's going to take time.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Outside of Italy and Spain, most European countries were able to flatten the curve enough to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

I can't speak to that specifically, but I've been surprised by the numbers coming out of Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, etc. on top of Spain, France, etc. that indicate it took a while for them to flatten the curve, assuming they have done so.

Whatever the Germans are doing is impressive in terms of mortality.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I can't speak to that specifically, but I've been surprised by the numbers coming out of Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, etc. on top of Spain, France, etc. that indicate it took a while for them to flatten the curve, assuming they have done so.

Whatever the Germans are doing is impressive in terms of mortality.

Boris Johnson now in icu.

 

[Zizkov]

I can't speak to that specifically, but I've been surprised by the numbers coming out of Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, etc. on top of Spain, France, etc. that indicate it took a while for them to flatten the curve, assuming they have done so.

Whatever the Germans are doing is impressive in terms of mortality.

Outside of Spain and Italy, only France has sounded the alarm of we need help. Germany has been taking in Italian patients and we have taken in some French one.

The UK may be the next trouble spot.

There is a direct correlation between countries that were slow to take this seriously and those that are having trouble keeping up.

Italy is a bit different and it is now assumes they had spread happening weeks before is was discovered.

Spain did very little for too long, but Spanish colleagues were losing their mind. The UK took way to long as well. The US still has people trying to downplay the seriousness and they are now in the worst shape and weeks from the apex.

I have to be honest, that I have read very little about France, so I have no idea what they have or haven't been doing. There is no stopping this, it's going to spread until herd immunity kicks in (which is along way away and not even a certainty to work) or until a vaccine is ready.

Life will not turn back to normal until then and precautions will be required. This is going to go a lot longer than most people realize or want to admit.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Outside of Spain and Italy, only France has sounded the alarm of we need help. Germany has been taking in Italian patients and we have taken in some French one.

The UK may be the next trouble spot.

There is a direct correlation between countries that were slow to take this seriously and those that are having trouble keeping up.

Italy is a bit different and it is now assumes they had spread happening weeks before is was discovered.

Spain did very little for too long, but Spanish colleagues were losing their mind. The UK took way to long as well. The US still has people trying to downplay the seriousness and they are now in the worst shape and weeks from the apex.

I have to be honest, that I have read very little about France, so I have no idea what they have or haven't been doing. There is no stopping this, it's going to spread until herd immunity kicks in (which is along way away and not even a certainty to work) or until a vaccine is ready.

Life will not turn back to normal until then and precautions will be required. This is going to go a lot longer than most people realize or want to admit.

What happened in Switzerland, for instance? I haven't seen any news on how it handled things, but it clearly plateaued based on daily case volume. It's infection rate was incredibly high on a per capita basis, but is that just a function of good testing?

 

[sglowrider]

More than 700 employees at one Detroit hospital system test positive for coronavirus

Hundreds of staff at a Detroit-area hospital system have tested positive for coronavirus, the hospital's chief clinical officer said Monday evening.

Nonprofit news site BridgeMI.com reported that Dr. Adnan Munkarah of the Henry Ford Hospital Campus confirmed 731 cases of the coronavirus among employees at the hospital, accounting for 2 percent of the hospital system's 31,600 employees.

As many as 1,500 at another hospital system in the state have reported symptoms similar to coronavirus, though those numbers are not confirmed cases.

“If we are to test the whole population, you are going to see large numbers of people who are testing positive,” Munkarah told reporters on a press call earlier in the day, according to BridgeMI.com. “Testing positive is just a measure of how contagious this virus is.”

Detroit, Michigan's largest city, has seen a surge of coronavirus cases in recent days while the state itself has seen just over 17,000 cases of the virus – the third-largest total of any state in the U.S. More than 5,000 of those cases were reported in Detroit, where hundreds have died.

The hospital system's chief operating officer added in a statement to BridgeMI.com that staff were working "24/7" to acquire more personal protective equipment (PPE) for nurses and doctors including masks, which hospitals across the country have reported trouble obtaining.

 

[meridian]

Promising..... the question will be will it coming roaring back once restrictions are eased?

Don’t worry! It will. It always does.

 

[sglowrider]

Don’t worry! It will. It always does.

Thats what is happening here.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/...ack-stroke.html#click=https://t.co/HOX2Tc5PWt

Perhaps too much is being counted as COVID related

 

[anon_mlxxvlbug9dpa]

Outside of Spain and Italy, only France has sounded the alarm of we need help. Germany has been taking in Italian patients and we have taken in some French one.

The UK may be the next trouble spot.

There is a direct correlation between countries that were slow to take this seriously and those that are having trouble keeping up.

Italy is a bit different and it is now assumes they had spread happening weeks before is was discovered.

Spain did very little for too long, but Spanish colleagues were losing their mind. The UK took way to long as well. The US still has people trying to downplay the seriousness and they are now in the worst shape and weeks from the apex.

I have to be honest, that I have read very little about France, so I have no idea what they have or haven't been doing. There is no stopping this, it's going to spread until herd immunity kicks in (which is along way away and not even a certainty to work) or until a vaccine is ready.

Life will not turn back to normal until then and precautions will be required. This is going to go a lot longer than most people realize or want to admit.

It’s no coincidence that the top 3 countries in tourist visits are being hit the hardest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings

 

[bawlmer]

For the first time today here in Maryland, we've had back-to-back days of declines in the number of new cases. Seems to be showing up in other states also (not Indiana, though), according to this site WaPo site (says it's made available free). Scroll to the bottom for state-specific data.

It's a disaster all around, but maybe some signs of hope.

 

[outside shooter]

One day deaths went up yesterday in NYC to a record high, so the two day trend was reversed and the apex might still be a bit away, unfortunately

 

[UncleMark]

It’s no coincidence that the top 3 countries in tourist visits are being hit the hardest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings

IIUC, the hot spot in Italy was a major destination for Chinese tourists, and the outbreak roughly corresponded with the CNY holiday.

 

[mcmurtry66]

One day deaths went up yesterday in NYC to a record high, so the two day trend was reversed and the apex might still be a bit away, unfortunately

Probably a dumb question from my brain marinating in booze but as it relates to flattening the curve why do we care about deaths? Aren’t those folks already on the books so to speak. I would think a reduction of persons presenting to the hospital would be a better indication.

 

[CO. Hoosier]

IIUC, the hot spot in Italy was a major destination for Chinese tourists, and the outbreak roughly corresponded with the CNY holiday.

Similarly the ski area locations in Colorado were hit hard early. And also Denver because almost all came through Denver International.

 

[outside shooter]

Probably a dumb question from my brain marinating in booze but as it relates to flattening the curve why do we care about deaths? Aren’t those folks already on the books so to speak. I would think a reduction of persons presenting to the hospital would be a better indication.

That is probably a better measure, you're right, though death is a well-defined endpoint. Many other factors can affect how many people are admitted, such as availability of testing and hospitals unfortunately having to limit the numbers they can accept.

 

[Standard Issue]

That is probably a better measure, you're right, though death is a well-defined endpoint. Many other factors can affect how many people are admitted, such as availability of testing and hospitals unfortunately having to limit the numbers they can accept.

The numbers should probably be presented as "active" and "resolved". Obviously the "resolved" cases would be comprised of good and very bad results. Things are getting better win new "active" cases are less than the new "resolved" cases.

 

[bawlmer]

That is probably a better measure, you're right, though death is a well-defined endpoint. Many other factors can affect how many people are admitted, such as availability of testing and hospitals unfortunately having to limit the numbers they can accept.

To me the rate of new infections within a state is a key first indicator. While the rate of testing varies from state-to-state and can distort national data, I assume all states are doing more testing as time passes. Therefore, SUSTAINED declines in new infections would be significant. And similar changes in several states even moreso.

Not enough data yet, but like I said above, any sign of hope is welcome.

 

[Bill4411]

I can't speak to that specifically, but I've been surprised by the numbers coming out of Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, etc. on top of Spain, France, etc. that indicate it took a while for them to flatten the curve, assuming they have done so.

Whatever the Germans are doing is impressive in terms of mortality.

It’s not as impressive as it first seemed. There death rate has edged up to about 1.5% but it’s a lot better than 12% that the Italians are suffering. Even if we only have the German death rate, with 330,000 people being diagnosed that’s still a lot of people.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

It’s not as impressive as it first seemed. There death rate has edged up to about 1.5% but it’s a lot better than 12% that the Italians are suffering. Even if we only have the German death rate, with 330,000 people being diagnosed that’s still a lot of people.

I suppose everything is relative, but if you compare its infection rate per 1 million population, it's in the same neighborhood as Belgium, France and the Netherlands. But, its death rate is much better, along with others (Portugal, Austria).

 

[sglowrider]

Lets Party Bitches!



I also think it's God's plan. The virus was sent as a warning to stay clear of commies, now that Bernie has dropped out, the curve is obviously flattening due to God being pleased.

 

[HillzHoozier]

When this is all over, it is absolutely critical that people recognize all these lives saved by the sacrifices we've made. Instead, I fear we'll hear a lot of, "See! It wasn't so bad! We did all that for nothing!"

Weren't social distancing measures built into the 100-200k model? And just yesterday the models said 91k dead with social distancing thru August, then later that evening a model projected 60k with social distancing thru April. There will have to be some responsibility taken if the numbers come in so far under projections. Otherwise, NOBODY pays attention next time.

 

[HillzHoozier]

Lets Party Bitches!

View embedded media

I also think it's God's plan. The virus was sent as a warning to stay clear of commies, now that Bernie has dropped out, the curve is obviously flattening due to God being pleased.

The next time you criticize Lyin' Xi will be the first.

 

[HillzHoozier]

This will 100% happen. And Trump will award himself the Trump Medal of Freedom.

Oohh... I doubt that's legal but I'd bet he has asked the question.

 

[sglowrider]

The next time you criticize Lyin' Xi will be the first.

Thats just dumb.

But if you want to be precise, it was Xi who was lied to by the Wuhan gov't. And by the way, how do you explain this then?

 

[HillzHoozier]

If you want to be precise, it was Xi who was lied to by the Wuhan gov't. And by the way, how do you explain this then?

View embedded media

Before Dr. Li "died" he was punished by the commies.

Li Wenliang died after contracting the virus while treating patients in Wuhan.

Last December he sent a message to fellow medics warning of a virus he thought looked like Sars - another deadly coronavirus.

But he was told by police to "stop making false comments" and was investigated for "spreading rumours".

"I don't think he was rumour-mongering. Hasn't this turned into reality now?" his father, Li Shuying, told the BBC.
​

Xi was lied to? Of course he was lied to. The truth gets you dead in China.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Weren't social distancing measures built into the 100-200k model? And just yesterday the models said 91k dead with social distancing thru August, then later that evening a model projected 60k with social distancing thru April. There will have to be some responsibility taken if the numbers come in so far under projections. Otherwise, NOBODY pays attention next time.

The surgeon General said the models were built at 50% compliance and instead they got 90%

 

[HillzHoozier]

The surgeon General said the models were built at 50% compliance and instead they got 90%

Thanks. I missed that.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

Thanks. I missed that.

Here is a link, https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...e-country-is-doing-right-thing-to-fight-virus

I have never heard wind this loud, those of you the storms have not made it to, take cover

 

[sglowrider]

Before Dr. Li "died" he was punished by the commies.

Li Wenliang died after contracting the virus while treating patients in Wuhan.

Last December he sent a message to fellow medics warning of a virus he thought looked like Sars - another deadly coronavirus.

But he was told by police to "stop making false comments" and was investigated for "spreading rumours".

"I don't think he was rumour-mongering. Hasn't this turned into reality now?" his father, Li Shuying, told the BBC.
​

Xi was lied to? Of course he was lied to. The truth get you dead in China.

Its just typical of you to do a whataboutism. What i had posted was about some fool proclaiming that the curve has flattened. If this is the case why not bring up Bolsonaro or any tangential person?

I have never claimed China to be innocent in this whole affair. I live in a country that was the first country outside of China to get it. I know all about the implications.

But it was clear that Trump has blood on his hands too. For political expediency, he was willing to deny the seriousness of this pandemic till the very end as in the 2nd week of March before pivoting.



It was clear he was aware of the situation long before he pivoted to reality. And I am sure, he will take a victory lap in June/July claiming it was all his doing. But despite having lied to the world some 16,000+ times in the past three years, 40% of the US population will still believe him.

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

The next time you criticize Lyin' Xi will be the first.

He's a commie and he knows it

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Its just typical of you to do a whataboutism. What i had posted was about some fool proclaiming that the curve has flattened. If this is the case why not bring up Bolsonaro or any tangential person?

I have never claimed China to be innocent in this whole affair. I live in a country that was the first country outside of China to get it. I know all about the implications.

But it was clear that Trump has blood on his hands too. For political expediency, he was willing to deny the seriousness of this pandemic till the very end as in the 2nd week of March before pivoting.



It was clear he was aware of the situation long before he pivoted to reality. And I am sure, he will take a victory lap in June/July claiming it was all his doing. But despite having lied to the world some 16,000+ times in the past three years, 40% of the US population will still believe him.

Of course our friend from a tiny Asian country eats up the suspect ABC reporting

Meanwhile, TIME:

 

[HillzHoozier]

I have never claimed China to be innocent in this whole affair.

You post multiple times per day and your posts are mostly critical of the presidents administration, and how they have handled the pandemic. There is plenty of criticism to go around, and I read what you link.

I do think you have a blind spot, though, where China's responsibility lies in the spread of Covid 19 into a worldwide crisis. It makes me wonder if either you are afraid to be critical, or you actually believe China has acted in good faith and its just so happens the current virus came out of Wuhan on a stroke of bad luck.

I think the lies China told gave this virus the opportunity to spread worldwide, and to see people tweet about Trump downplaying it seems like amateur hour to me.

 

[UncleMark]

I have never heard wind this loud, those of you the storms have not made it to, take cover

LOL. Try sitting through one of these in a trailer with two old cats.

 

[Marvin the Martian]

LOL. Try sitting through one of these in a trailer with two old cats.

I have a cat that will be 21 in 2 months, and 2 dogs. They all pretty much ignored the storm.

 

[sglowrider]

You post multiple times per day and your posts are mostly critical of the presidents administration, and how they have handled the pandemic. There is plenty of criticism to go around, and I read what you link.

I do think you have a blind spot, though, where China's responsibility lies in the spread of Covid 19 into a worldwide crisis. It makes me wonder if either you are afraid to be critical, or you actually believe China has acted in good faith and its just so happens the current virus came out of Wuhan on a stroke of bad luck.

I think the lies China told gave this virus the opportunity to spread worldwide, and to see people tweet about Trump downplaying it seems like amateur hour to me.

LOL! If only the world was so simple. Binary.

Instead of looking to blame others why didn't your hero focus on fixing the impending tide of the spread domestically? Most governments around the world went on the business of protecting its citizens instead of calling it a hoax. Initiating their pandemic playbook immediately.

Viruses will always be apart of our lives -- the question is what do you do about it.

Calling it a hoax or dragging your feet, ''from 15 to 0 very soon'' isn't in any pandemic strategy.

It's a political strategy. Clearly you see it as a political attack rather than poor management which says more about you than me.

 

[HillzHoozier]

LOL! If only the world was so simple. Binary.

Instead of looking to blame others why didn't your hero focus on fixing the impending tide of the spread domestically? Most governments around the world went on the business of protecting its citizens instead of calling it a hoax. Initiating their pandemic playbook immediately.

Viruses will always be apart of our lives -- the question is what do you do about it.

Calling it a hoax or dragging your feet, ''from 15 to 0 very soon'' isn't in any pandemic strategy.

It's a political strategy. Clearly you see it as a political attack rather than poor management which says more about you than me.

Blink once if you think Xi did/is doing a good job. Blink twice if you fear for your life.