Flattening?

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by mohoosier, Mar 31, 2020.

  1. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    Promising..... the question will be will it coming roaring back once restrictions are eased?
     
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  2. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Junior
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    That's for sure the million dollar question. masks, gloves, greater personal space, no big gatherings, isolate elderly for a spell etc and gradually reduce restrictions. Eventually we'll have to bite the bullet and see.
     
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  3. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    Seems to me that would depend on how long they wait before loosening the reins. The longer they hold off, the better the chances that any rebound will be less severe. Of course, the pressure to lift the restrictions will be unbelievable, and I don't think we'll be able to put it off as long as we probably should. Scary to think that Trump will have a major impact on that decision.
     
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  4. mohoosier

    mohoosier Hall of Famer
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    Good question. Hopefully, we will see from some of the other regions before us how this pans out. It’s impossible to know the exact numbers at this point, but a certain percentage of the masses have the antibody present in their systems but have been unaffected. Depending on how large a percentage that is will also determine future infection numbers.

    This is loosely related to the ‘Herd Immunity’ strategy that The Netherlands has adopted.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...mpts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html

    If successful, it could lend to a US strategy of allowing the ‘safe crowd’ to resume some sort of public normalcy. Obviously, The Netherland’s overall smaller numbers allow a freedom we don’t have, but in moderation it may be an option?

    Here’s another article on Herd Immunity with some specific numbers.
    https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/17/aroun...t-get-covid-19-herd-immunity-health-institute
     
    5 mohoosier, Mar 31, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
  5. mohoosier

    mohoosier Hall of Famer
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    Trump doesn’t operate in a vacuum, regardless of your view on it. He really is listening to both sides or else Easter would have been the date. Plus, the Cities and States have a loud voice when it comes to loosening restrictions.
     
  6. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    Japan says Yes. China says No but they’re full of shit.
     
  7. twenty02

    twenty02 Hall of Famer
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    The Netherlands has already abandoned that reckless strategy. The reality is that doesn't work....(well, it will "work" but the devastation is too much to handle). It would "work" here too.... if we're okay with hospitals looking like a world war has broken out and we just sacrifice a few million to the gods.

    They've likely really screwed themselves.... they already have a both a per capita infection rate and death rate higher than the US does.

    Probably should avoid articles from 2 weeks ago.
     
  8. sglowrider

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    Herd immunity is a political decision and people who favour eugenics. The cost may be devastating for some but 'better' for the long run for others.
     
  9. hoot1

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    Mo, thanks for finding links about a series of positive outcomes.

    From where I sit it is like having your favorite team having a six point edge and you want twelve points to feel comfortable with your odds.
     
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  10. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    More like being behind by 12 and cutting the deficit to 6. Not yet ahead, but closing the gap.
     
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  11. mohoosier

    mohoosier Hall of Famer
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    Other sources report a current hybrid approach. As you say, they’ve pulled back but not entirely. It may be too early to say it worked or didn’t work.
     
  12. sglowrider

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    Right now, Taiwan's the gold standard on containment.

     
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  13. mohoosier

    mohoosier Hall of Famer
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    Apples and Oranges -

    Taiwan population: 23.78 million
    Square miles: 14,000

    Texas population: 28.7 million
    Square Miles: 272,000
     
  14. Cream&Crimson

    Cream&Crimson All-Big Ten
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    Yeah be he's champing at the bit to "open up our economy" asap. He talked about that again this evening in his presser. He was like, we have to open it back up. Our country was not built to withstand this. We've got to open it back up. No way he's going to support keeping things shut down as long as we really need to.
     
  15. sglowrider

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    Chirst on a stick! Seriously, are you guys that dense? You have excuses for everything.

    How you drive an SUV or a truck isn't that different on how you drive a mini. Similar principles apply. How you build a truck is so vastly different than how you build a Nissan Leaf?

    Only when you have a template mind and want to only fit every narrative into your dogmatic, inflexible mindset or ideas ie small-mindedness. Only if you focus on the (small) differences will you think that it so different.

    Its not about macro numbers. Look at the containment process and what they are doing.
     
    16 sglowrider, Apr 5, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
  16. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    I am not an epidemiologist, but as I understand it, areas that have already been hit hard are more likely to see a second wave that is less serious and slower-developing, since large chunks of the population will no longer be susceptible. But it also sounds like, from what people are saying, it's unlikely we have had anywhere near the proportion of the population exposed that would need to be to count on any sort of herd immunity to protect us from that second wave.

    Long story short, I'd guess that if we lift restrictions too much, we'll eventually discover a need to tighten them again until we find sort of a balance that allows life to resume at some acceptable level while also keeping exposure to a minimum. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, to hear that 24-hour grocery stores remain on limited hours well into next year, so that they can continue the enhanced sanitation procedures they've implemented. We might also be eventually looking at bars and restaurants limiting their on-premise guests to numbers well below those set out by the fire mashall.
     
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  17. mohoosier

    mohoosier Hall of Famer
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    Fauci was asked this today and gave no promises because no one can until the antibody crowd is tested, but he estimated 25 - 50% at this point.
     
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  18. mohoosier

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    Who says how long is too long? Someone has to lead on this one. I know a lot of people that have had enough already. Again, people are dying everyday from a myriad of causes - so to stop society because of death is not the proper argument. It’s been part of this thing from the beginning whether we accept it or not. Not moving forward will be a death none of us are willing to accept - believe me.
     
  19. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    As I understand it, we need 90%+ for herd immunity to be dependable.
     
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  20. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    Important clarification: Fauci said that 25-50% of cases could be asymptomatic, not that 25-50% of the population was already infected. 50% could be asymptomatic even if only 2% of the population was actually infected at this point.
     
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  21. sglowrider

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  22. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    When this is all over, it is absolutely critical that people recognize all these lives saved by the sacrifices we've made. Instead, I fear we'll hear a lot of, "See! It wasn't so bad! We did all that for nothing!"
     
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  23. sglowrider

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    Precisely. Its an opportunity for people to relook at themselves -- it's not about jingoism, philosophies, sides or slogans. Need to re-learn the hierarchy of the values in/of life.
    People just don't seem to have a sense of history, perspectives and lessons learnt. Life seems to be like one series of Rambo movies.
     
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  24. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    We finally agree on something ( the end of the world may truly be near :eek:) ;)
     
  25. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    It's not my fault you got something right for once! :D
     
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  26. 76-1

    76-1 All-American
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    :D
     
  27. TheOriginalHappyGoat

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    To be fair, I think we've agreed on more than a few things.
     
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  28. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    No, we'll hear all these lives were saved by the perfect, heroic decisions made by Trump.
     
  29. sglowrider

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    "BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany has drawn up a list of measures, including an obligation to wear masks in public, limits on public gatherings and the rapid tracing of infection chains, that officials think should allow life to return to normal after lockdown’s scheduled end on April 19.

    The proposals, contained in a draft action plan compiled by the Interior Ministry document and seen by Reuters on Monday, say the measures should be sufficient to keep the number of people infected by each person below 1 even as public life is allowed gradually to resume.

    For this to be possible, mechanisms will have to be in place to track more than 80% of people an infected person had contact with within 24 hours of diagnosis. In return, schools will be able to reopen on a regional basis and strict border controls will be relaxed, the paper said."


    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The key to containment is to keep the numbers small in order to ensure that patient care isn't compromised. Thus, test, trace, map and then isolate.
     
  30. UncleMark

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    Just dropping this here...

    I just came from the downtown post office. Next door is Seminary Park, a hangout for the homeless. About 30 people were hanging out there, in close proximity, no masks, hugging and shaking hands, totally oblivious. These people are doomed, and there's no way to prevent them from contributing to community spread to the public at large.
     
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  31. mcmurtry66

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    my office is next to a hotel that's being gutted. i stopped by to grab the mail and looked out my window to see 20 plus construction workers sitting inches apart from one another eating lunch. no gloves. no masks. nothing. this was just yesterday. why are they still working?
     
  32. JamieDimonsBalls

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  33. UncleMark

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  34. JamieDimonsBalls

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    Agree, positive signs but too early for confirmation. Also wonder if the weekends are as accurate in terms of reporting #s?
     
  35. UncleMark

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    Gotta be lots of variables involved day to day that would be "smeared" out over time.
     
  36. Zizkov

    Zizkov Moderator
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    We are starting very minor steps to ease some restrictions this week. I hope it is not to soon, but these are small steps. The early decision to lockdown appears to have paid off. Only 79 deaths to date and new infections have been low for a while now:

    Breaking: Czech Republic begins to soften anti-coronavirus measures
    From tomorrow, biking or running without a face mask and playing individual outdoor sports will be allowed; from Thursday, select shops will open

    https://news.expats.cz/weekly-czech...V4XxFXdnmUm2yhXtYwg_Nw9ajgtavNjbVbe4CtZJ2N6eQ
     
  37. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    Good for you guys. Clearly did something better/different than many other Euro countries
     
  38. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    I think it’ll be key to having good antibody testing so we can see who had it, cleared it, and had no idea.

    edit: antibody not activity
     
    39 INRanger27, Apr 6, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
  39. INRanger27

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    This will 100% happen. And Trump will award himself the Trump Medal of Freedom.
     

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