Flattening?

Discussion in 'The Water Cooler' started by mohoosier, Mar 31, 2020.

  1. 82hoosier

    82hoosier All-American
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    All I know is what I’ve read in the last month but the second wave of the 1918 flu pandemic was far more deadly than the first. I may have posted this before but it’s a very good read:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/
     
  2. Zizkov

    Zizkov Moderator
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    We locked down early and did a decent job of testing and tracking. I expect we may see another jump.

    Outside of Italy and Spain, most European countries were able to flatten the curve enough to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

    The UK did a pretty bad job and may be in for some trouble and France is putting up some bad numbers, but you aren't seeing the lack of equipment or PPE in most countries.

    Until there is a vaccine, it is going to be an ongoing issue.
     
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  3. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Junior
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    Bill Gates is trying....
     
  4. Zizkov

    Zizkov Moderator
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    There have been a lot of progress from groups all over the world. they will get there, but it's going to take time.
     
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  5. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    I can't speak to that specifically, but I've been surprised by the numbers coming out of Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, etc. on top of Spain, France, etc. that indicate it took a while for them to flatten the curve, assuming they have done so.

    Whatever the Germans are doing is impressive in terms of mortality.
     
  6. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Junior
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    Boris Johnson now in icu.
     
  7. Zizkov

    Zizkov Moderator
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    Outside of Spain and Italy, only France has sounded the alarm of we need help. Germany has been taking in Italian patients and we have taken in some French one.

    The UK may be the next trouble spot.

    There is a direct correlation between countries that were slow to take this seriously and those that are having trouble keeping up.

    Italy is a bit different and it is now assumes they had spread happening weeks before is was discovered.

    Spain did very little for too long, but Spanish colleagues were losing their mind. The UK took way to long as well. The US still has people trying to downplay the seriousness and they are now in the worst shape and weeks from the apex.

    I have to be honest, that I have read very little about France, so I have no idea what they have or haven't been doing. There is no stopping this, it's going to spread until herd immunity kicks in (which is along way away and not even a certainty to work) or until a vaccine is ready.

    Life will not turn back to normal until then and precautions will be required. This is going to go a lot longer than most people realize or want to admit.
     
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  8. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    What happened in Switzerland, for instance? I haven't seen any news on how it handled things, but it clearly plateaued based on daily case volume. It's infection rate was incredibly high on a per capita basis, but is that just a function of good testing?
     
  9. sglowrider

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    More than 700 employees at one Detroit hospital system test positive for coronavirus

    Hundreds of staff at a Detroit-area hospital system have tested positive for coronavirus, the hospital's chief clinical officer said Monday evening.

    Nonprofit news site BridgeMI.com reported that Dr. Adnan Munkarah of the Henry Ford Hospital Campus confirmed 731 cases of the coronavirus among employees at the hospital, accounting for 2 percent of the hospital system's 31,600 employees.

    As many as 1,500 at another hospital system in the state have reported symptoms similar to coronavirus, though those numbers are not confirmed cases.

    “If we are to test the whole population, you are going to see large numbers of people who are testing positive,” Munkarah told reporters on a press call earlier in the day, according to BridgeMI.com. “Testing positive is just a measure of how contagious this virus is.”

    Detroit, Michigan's largest city, has seen a surge of coronavirus cases in recent days while the state itself has seen just over 17,000 cases of the virus – the third-largest total of any state in the U.S. More than 5,000 of those cases were reported in Detroit, where hundreds have died.

    The hospital system's chief operating officer added in a statement to BridgeMI.com that staff were working "24/7" to acquire more personal protective equipment (PPE) for nurses and doctors including masks, which hospitals across the country have reported trouble obtaining.


     
  10. meridian

    meridian Hall of Famer
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    Don’t worry! It will. It always does.
     
  11. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Thats what is happening here.
     
  12. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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  13. INRanger27

    INRanger27 All-American
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    It’s no coincidence that the top 3 countries in tourist visits are being hit the hardest.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings
     
  14. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    For the first time today here in Maryland, we've had back-to-back days of declines in the number of new cases. Seems to be showing up in other states also (not Indiana, though), according to this site WaPo site (says it's made available free). Scroll to the bottom for state-specific data.

    It's a disaster all around, but maybe some signs of hope.
     
  15. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    One day deaths went up yesterday in NYC to a record high, so the two day trend was reversed and the apex might still be a bit away, unfortunately
     
  16. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    IIUC, the hot spot in Italy was a major destination for Chinese tourists, and the outbreak roughly corresponded with the CNY holiday.
     
  17. mcmurtry66

    mcmurtry66 Junior
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    Probably a dumb question from my brain marinating in booze but as it relates to flattening the curve why do we care about deaths? Aren’t those folks already on the books so to speak. I would think a reduction of persons presenting to the hospital would be a better indication.
     
  18. CO. Hoosier

    CO. Hoosier Hall of Famer
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    Similarly the ski area locations in Colorado were hit hard early. And also Denver because almost all came through Denver International.
     
  19. outside shooter

    outside shooter Hall of Famer
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    That is probably a better measure, you're right, though death is a well-defined endpoint. Many other factors can affect how many people are admitted, such as availability of testing and hospitals unfortunately having to limit the numbers they can accept.
     
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  20. Standard Issue

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    The numbers should probably be presented as "active" and "resolved". Obviously the "resolved" cases would be comprised of good and very bad results. Things are getting better win new "active" cases are less than the new "resolved" cases.
     
  21. bawlmer

    bawlmer All-Big Ten
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    To me the rate of new infections within a state is a key first indicator. While the rate of testing varies from state-to-state and can distort national data, I assume all states are doing more testing as time passes. Therefore, SUSTAINED declines in new infections would be significant. And similar changes in several states even moreso.

    Not enough data yet, but like I said above, any sign of hope is welcome.
     
  22. Bill4411

    Bill4411 All-American
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    It’s not as impressive as it first seemed. There death rate has edged up to about 1.5% but it’s a lot better than 12% that the Italians are suffering. Even if we only have the German death rate, with 330,000 people being diagnosed that’s still a lot of people.
     
  23. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    I suppose everything is relative, but if you compare its infection rate per 1 million population, it's in the same neighborhood as Belgium, France and the Netherlands. But, its death rate is much better, along with others (Portugal, Austria).
     
  24. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Lets Party Bitches!



    I also think it's God's plan. The virus was sent as a warning to stay clear of commies, now that Bernie has dropped out, the curve is obviously flattening due to God being pleased.
     
    64 sglowrider, Apr 8, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
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  25. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Weren't social distancing measures built into the 100-200k model? And just yesterday the models said 91k dead with social distancing thru August, then later that evening a model projected 60k with social distancing thru April. There will have to be some responsibility taken if the numbers come in so far under projections. Otherwise, NOBODY pays attention next time.
     
  26. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    The next time you criticize Lyin' Xi will be the first.
     
  27. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Oohh... I doubt that's legal but I'd bet he has asked the question.
     
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  28. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Thats just dumb.

    But if you want to be precise, it was Xi who was lied to by the Wuhan gov't. And by the way, how do you explain this then?

     
    68 sglowrider, Apr 8, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
  29. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Before Dr. Li "died" he was punished by the commies.

    Li Wenliang died after contracting the virus while treating patients in Wuhan.

    Last December he sent a message to fellow medics warning of a virus he thought looked like Sars - another deadly coronavirus.

    But he was told by police to "stop making false comments" and was investigated for "spreading rumours".

    "I don't think he was rumour-mongering. Hasn't this turned into reality now?" his father, Li Shuying, told the BBC.
    Xi was lied to? Of course he was lied to. The truth gets you dead in China.
     
  30. Marvin the Martian

    Marvin the Martian Hall of Famer
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    The surgeon General said the models were built at 50% compliance and instead they got 90%
     
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  31. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Thanks. I missed that.
     
  32. Marvin the Martian

    Marvin the Martian Hall of Famer
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  33. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    Its just typical of you to do a whataboutism. What i had posted was about some fool proclaiming that the curve has flattened. If this is the case why not bring up Bolsonaro or any tangential person?

    I have never claimed China to be innocent in this whole affair. I live in a country that was the first country outside of China to get it. I know all about the implications.

    But it was clear that Trump has blood on his hands too. For political expediency, he was willing to deny the seriousness of this pandemic till the very end as in the 2nd week of March before pivoting.



    It was clear he was aware of the situation long before he pivoted to reality. And I am sure, he will take a victory lap in June/July claiming it was all his doing. But despite having lied to the world some 16,000+ times in the past three years, 40% of the US population will still believe him.
     
    73 sglowrider, Apr 8, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
  34. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    He's a commie and he knows it
     
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  35. JamieDimonsBalls

    JamieDimonsBalls All-Big Ten
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    Of course our friend from a tiny Asian country eats up the suspect ABC reporting

    Meanwhile, TIME:

     
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  36. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    You post multiple times per day and your posts are mostly critical of the presidents administration, and how they have handled the pandemic. There is plenty of criticism to go around, and I read what you link.

    I do think you have a blind spot, though, where China's responsibility lies in the spread of Covid 19 into a worldwide crisis. It makes me wonder if either you are afraid to be critical, or you actually believe China has acted in good faith and its just so happens the current virus came out of Wuhan on a stroke of bad luck.

    I think the lies China told gave this virus the opportunity to spread worldwide, and to see people tweet about Trump downplaying it seems like amateur hour to me.
     
  37. UncleMark

    UncleMark Hall of Famer
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    LOL. Try sitting through one of these in a trailer with two old cats.
     
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  38. Marvin the Martian

    Marvin the Martian Hall of Famer
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    I have a cat that will be 21 in 2 months, and 2 dogs. They all pretty much ignored the storm.
     
  39. sglowrider

    sglowrider Hall of Famer
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    LOL! If only the world was so simple. Binary.

    Instead of looking to blame others why didn't your hero focus on fixing the impending tide of the spread domestically? Most governments around the world went on the business of protecting its citizens instead of calling it a hoax. Initiating their pandemic playbook immediately.

    Viruses will always be apart of our lives -- the question is what do you do about it.

    Calling it a hoax or dragging your feet, ''from 15 to 0 very soon'' isn't in any pandemic strategy.

    It's a political strategy. Clearly you see it as a political attack rather than poor management which says more about you than me.
     
    79 sglowrider, Apr 8, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2020
  40. HillzHoozier

    HillzHoozier All-American
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    Blink once if you think Xi did/is doing a good job. Blink twice if you fear for your life.
     

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