We're 54 days from the election, but the reality is 90% of voters have made up their minds already. Even if we have an October surprise, it better come in the first week or so, because a lot of people will be voting by mail (and those votes will be sent in earlier) or voting in-person early. Trump has less than 40 days to overcome what has been a solid and consistent Biden lead. The states that are in play include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas. I don't really think Texas and Georgia will go blue in 2020, but watch out in 2024.
I think Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are losses for Trump. The closest margin right now is five in favor of Biden. If that remains true on election day, Trump loses. Trump has to take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and somehow pull Pennsylvania back in his column to win. Even then, Trump will need to sweep Nebraska (Biden looks likely to win 1 electorial vote there) and pick up 1 in Maine.
I have the low count for Biden at 290 with the ceiling at 352. My prediction is Biden 305, Trump 233, although if there's not any tightening up as we get closer, 352 for Biden is very possible.
I think Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are losses for Trump. The closest margin right now is five in favor of Biden. If that remains true on election day, Trump loses. Trump has to take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and somehow pull Pennsylvania back in his column to win. Even then, Trump will need to sweep Nebraska (Biden looks likely to win 1 electorial vote there) and pick up 1 in Maine.
I have the low count for Biden at 290 with the ceiling at 352. My prediction is Biden 305, Trump 233, although if there's not any tightening up as we get closer, 352 for Biden is very possible.