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Election predictions...who do you have?

Circlejoe

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Sep 26, 2001
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We're 54 days from the election, but the reality is 90% of voters have made up their minds already. Even if we have an October surprise, it better come in the first week or so, because a lot of people will be voting by mail (and those votes will be sent in earlier) or voting in-person early. Trump has less than 40 days to overcome what has been a solid and consistent Biden lead. The states that are in play include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas. I don't really think Texas and Georgia will go blue in 2020, but watch out in 2024.

I think Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are losses for Trump. The closest margin right now is five in favor of Biden. If that remains true on election day, Trump loses. Trump has to take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and somehow pull Pennsylvania back in his column to win. Even then, Trump will need to sweep Nebraska (Biden looks likely to win 1 electorial vote there) and pick up 1 in Maine.

I have the low count for Biden at 290 with the ceiling at 352. My prediction is Biden 305, Trump 233, although if there's not any tightening up as we get closer, 352 for Biden is very possible.
 
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I don't think there's been a more difficult election to predict in my lifetime. If I were a Dem the thing that would scare the sh!t out me is that Trump is doing a lot better with Hispanics and a little better with blacks than in 2016. He's winning Hispanics in Florida in that latest NBC poll by 50-48. Amazing for a Pub. Yet he's "supposedly" down by about 7 nationally. What does that tell you?
 
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According to this board Trump is omnipresent, spewing his evil, wicked ways at all hours of the day and night.
The only other force that powerful is God. So, for those reasons, how could Trump possibly lose?

If you’re paying attention to national polls, you should stop. How quickly we forget.

Democrats had four years to get this right and they deliver Biden, what a shame.
 
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We're 54 days from the election, but the reality is 90% of voters have made up their minds already. Even if we have an October surprise, it better come in the first week or so, because a lot of people will be voting by mail (and those votes will be sent in earlier) or voting in-person early. Trump has less than 40 days to overcome what has been a solid and consistent Biden lead. The states that are in play include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas. I don't really think Texas and Georgia will go blue in 2020, but watch out in 2024.

I think Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are losses for Trump. The closest margin right now is five in favor of Biden. If that remains true on election day, Trump loses. Trump has to take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and somehow pull Pennsylvania back in his column to win. Even then, Trump will need to sweep Nebraska (Biden looks likely to win 1 electorial vote there) and pick up 1 in Maine.

I have the low count for Biden at 290 with the ceiling at 352. My prediction is Biden 305, Trump 233, although if there's not any tightening up as we get closer, 352 for Biden is very possible.

I need to wait and see how many polling places republicans can manage to shut down between now and then.
 
According to this board Trump is omnipresent, spewing his evil, wicked ways at all hours of the day and night.
The only other force that powerful is God. So, for those reasons, how could Trump possibly lose?

If you’re paying attention to national polls, you should stop. How quickly we forget.

Democrats had four years to get this right and they deliver Biden, what a shame.
Dumb
 
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I predict chaos no matter who wins.
But especially if Biden wins because Trump won't leave office no matter what it might cost this country. I'd suggest libs take advantage of the second amendment.
 
But especially if Biden wins because Trump won't leave office no matter what it might cost this country. I'd suggest libs take advantage of the second amendment.
First of all, you’re insane.

Second, there will be far more unrest if Trump wins. The rioting that won’t stop now certainly won’t stop then.

My prediction is Biden by a considerable margin.
 
First of all, you’re insane.

Second, there will be far more unrest if Trump wins. The rioting that won’t stop now certainly won’t stop then.

My prediction is Biden by a considerable margin.
Let me clarify my earlier statement about why libs need to get guns-it is simply for defensive purposes. I think Trump will start a civil war to try to stay in office, after all he said he has the police, the military and the bikers on his side.
 
Second, there will be far more unrest if Trump wins. The rioting that won’t stop now certainly won’t stop then.
If Trump wins, the lefties will take to the streets with frozen water bottles, laser pointers, and Molotov cocktails.

If Biden wins, the Trumpsters will take to the street with ARs and AKs.
 
If Trump wins, the lefties will take to the streets with frozen water bottles, laser pointers, and Molotov cocktails.

If Biden wins, the Trumpsters will take to the street with ARs and AKs.
Honestly mark I think the lefties will riot like hell if trump wins. If Biden wins I don’t think the trump crowd will do anything. Unlike with trump there’s no claims that I’m aware of that Biden is trying to “fix” the election. So what’s the cause for unrest. Maybe I’m naive.
 
Honestly mark I think the lefties will riot like hell if trump wins. If Biden wins I don’t think the trump crowd will do anything. Unlike with trump there’s no claims that I’m aware of that Biden is trying to “fix” the election. So what’s the cause for unrest. Maybe I’m naive.
If Trump calls them they will come as their loyalty is to their "fuhrer".
 
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The Dems have swept basically every significant / closely contested election that's occurred since Trump was elected. I don't see that magically changing in the next month or so.... how many people are actually undecided? Seems unlikely to be many whatsoever.

This is a pure Trump referendum
 
Honestly mark I think the lefties will riot like hell if trump wins. If Biden wins I don’t think the trump crowd will do anything. Unlike with trump there’s no claims that I’m aware of that Biden is trying to “fix” the election. So what’s the cause for unrest. Maybe I’m naive.
Are you nuts? Trump has said the only way he loses is if the election is fixed. His followers will believe him.
 
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Metrosexual?

tenor.gif
 
We're 54 days from the election, but the reality is 90% of voters have made up their minds already. Even if we have an October surprise, it better come in the first week or so, because a lot of people will be voting by mail (and those votes will be sent in earlier) or voting in-person early. Trump has less than 40 days to overcome what has been a solid and consistent Biden lead. The states that are in play include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas. I don't really think Texas and Georgia will go blue in 2020, but watch out in 2024.

I think Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are losses for Trump. The closest margin right now is five in favor of Biden. If that remains true on election day, Trump loses. Trump has to take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and somehow pull Pennsylvania back in his column to win. Even then, Trump will need to sweep Nebraska (Biden looks likely to win 1 electorial vote there) and pick up 1 in Maine.

I have the low count for Biden at 290 with the ceiling at 352. My prediction is Biden 305, Trump 233, although if there's not any tightening up as we get closer, 352 for Biden is very possible.

Unless there is some massive, Saddam level cheating like a Trump, I can't see how Trump pulls this out.

He hasn't expanded his base...he thinks he's in the republican primary.

All key demographics have flipped against him. Suburbs have turned especially suburban women. Blacks support was around 3% at the aggregate which is putrid.

A big chunk of over 60 have turned on him with his handling of the pandemic.

His military support has turned on him.

A ton of moderate Republicans, call the McCain Republicans have flipped on him.

I believe the progressive dems realize that Trump is an existential threat and will either vote Biden or not vote at all in protest. A lot of progressives voted for Trump in 2016.

Trump still owns rural areas. He own evangelicals. He is strong with non college white males that are over 45 (a lot of rural crosses over here) and he of course owns the hard core, party over country conservatives.

I don't think it's going to be enough.

Biden is the Trump antidote. He's boring, he has a long record of being a moderate, he has had great tragedy in his life (he decided not to run in 2016 because he was mourning his son). Biden is a devout Catholic who goes to church every Sunday which can disarm Trump's claim to the evangelicals. Biden is very well liked in congress. Etc. He's the complete opposite of Trump.

Lastly for those who think Biden will get beat in the debates. It was mentioned that Biden was extremely cautious in the democratic debates because he wanted to be respectful within the party (cuz it needs to be united) and he was more worried about offending the minority, the female and the gay candidates.

He won't have that caution with Trump.

He's also much better in a one on one debate.

I think people are going to be surprised. All Biden has to do is look presidential and not crazy radical.
 
According to this board Trump is omnipresent, spewing his evil, wicked ways at all hours of the day and night.
The only other force that powerful is God. So, for those reasons, how could Trump possibly lose?

If you’re paying attention to national polls, you should stop. How quickly we forget.

Democrats had four years to get this right and they deliver Biden, what a shame.

National polls weren't that off.

However several close states mainly flipped to Trump.

I believe we're paying more attention to the states and how they roll up this time.

We'll see.
 
Let me clarify my earlier statement about why libs need to get guns-it is simply for defensive purposes. I think Trump will start a civil war to try to stay in office, after all he said he has the police, the military and the bikers on his side.

I'm still calling that Trump resigns in fake disgust, possibly does some damage but definitely has Pence pardon him completely during his two month presidency.

Then Trump becomes the face of OANN and all the hard core Trumpers and Q's will head over and he'll finish out his life doing Trump play by play from that platform.

However I do think there will be some Trump rebellions. Just hope they last two weeks and don't have a Timothy McVey event (which I doubt but....)
 
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We're 54 days from the election, but the reality is 90% of voters have made up their minds already. Even if we have an October surprise, it better come in the first week or so, because a lot of people will be voting by mail (and those votes will be sent in earlier) or voting in-person early. Trump has less than 40 days to overcome what has been a solid and consistent Biden lead. The states that are in play include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas. I don't really think Texas and Georgia will go blue in 2020, but watch out in 2024.

I think Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are losses for Trump. The closest margin right now is five in favor of Biden. If that remains true on election day, Trump loses. Trump has to take Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and somehow pull Pennsylvania back in his column to win. Even then, Trump will need to sweep Nebraska (Biden looks likely to win 1 electorial vote there) and pick up 1 in Maine.

I have the low count for Biden at 290 with the ceiling at 352. My prediction is Biden 305, Trump 233, although if there's not any tightening up as we get closer, 352 for Biden is very possible.
Predictions are always tricky things. People tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what they think will happen. For example, if you ever see someone post something like, "I think Americans will see..." what they really mean is, "I personally think, and so I hope other Americans also realize..."

Another problem is that we just don't know what's really going on in a lot of states. We have a better idea of what's going on in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan this year, because pollsters want to avoid getting caught with their pants down again in those states, but there's a lack of quality polling in Georgia and Texas, which is disappointing, because those states represent a viable alternative path for Biden if he doesn't win back enough of the Midwest. And the little polling we have doesn't give us enough information to test any hypotheses we might have.

Example: Biden is polling much stronger among Black voters than Hispanic ones. Off the top of your head, you might think this suggests he has a much better chance of pulling out the upset in Georgia than in Texas. Both states could easily go blue with a big enough increase in minority turnout, but demographics might suggests minority voters in Georgia would be more motivated. Unfortunately, we don't have enough detailed polling in either state to test that. The best we can do is speculate that it sort of makes sense.

Then you have states that are just plain weird. Florida is shifting to Trump more than any other battleground state at the moment, but it's happening because Biden's support among Hispanics in the state is historically soft for a Democrat, even while he's (relatively) crushing Trump among older white voters! Florida gonna Florida.

I think there is at least one thing in your post that we can probably chalk up as a pretty solid prediction, though. All indications are that this will be a banner year for early/absentee voting. This means any bombshells that are going to drop are almost certainly going to drop in September, rather than October. If early October rolls around, and Trump hasn't narrowed the gap any further, things start to look very difficult for him.

Long story short, I'm not ready to make a prediction yet, but I think the next month will be a wild ride.
 
National polls weren't that off.

However several close states mainly flipped to Trump.

I believe we're paying more attention to the states and how they roll up this time.

We'll see.
In 2016 polls had Hillary as high as +10 points nationally leading up to the election in late October. Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio were all wrong.

National polls extrapolate their information from areas that aren’t indicative of the cross section. Pull data from metro locations you will receive slanted info.
 
Predictions are always tricky things. People tend to predict what they want to happen, rather than what they think will happen. For example, if you ever see someone post something like, "I think Americans will see..." what they really mean is, "I personally think, and so I hope other Americans also realize..."

Another problem is that we just don't know what's really going on in a lot of states. We have a better idea of what's going on in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan this year, because pollsters want to avoid getting caught with their pants down again in those states, but there's a lack of quality polling in Georgia and Texas, which is disappointing, because those states represent a viable alternative path for Biden if he doesn't win back enough of the Midwest. And the little polling we have doesn't give us enough information to test any hypotheses we might have.

Example: Biden is polling much stronger among Black voters than Hispanic ones. Off the top of your head, you might think this suggests he has a much better chance of pulling out the upset in Georgia than in Texas. Both states could easily go blue with a big enough increase in minority turnout, but demographics might suggests minority voters in Georgia would be more motivated. Unfortunately, we don't have enough detailed polling in either state to test that. The best we can do is speculate that it sort of makes sense.

Then you have states that are just plain weird. Florida is shifting to Trump more than any other battleground state at the moment, but it's happening because Biden's support among Hispanics in the state is historically soft for a Democrat, even while he's (relatively) crushing Trump among older white voters! Florida gonna Florida.

I think there is at least one thing in your post that we can probably chalk up as a pretty solid prediction, though. All indications are that this will be a banner year for early/absentee voting. This means any bombshells that are going to drop are almost certainly going to drop in September, rather than October. If early October rolls around, and Trump hasn't narrowed the gap any further, things start to look very difficult for him.

Long story short, I'm not ready to make a prediction yet, but I think the next month will be a wild ride.

One of my favorite lines about Florida voters - if the choice was an ice cream cone or a kick to the head, the result would be 51-49.
 
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Eh, it's not going to be that close. Biden will win it on election night. And no one is going to riot in the streets if Trump loses. The end.
 
Unless there is some massive, Saddam level cheating like a Trump, I can't see how Trump pulls this out.

He hasn't expanded his base...he thinks he's in the republican primary.

All key demographics have flipped against him. Suburbs have turned especially suburban women. Blacks support was around 3% at the aggregate which is putrid.

A big chunk of over 60 have turned on him with his handling of the pandemic.

His military support has turned on him.

A ton of moderate Republicans, call the McCain Republicans have flipped on him.

I believe the progressive dems realize that Trump is an existential threat and will either vote Biden or not vote at all in protest. A lot of progressives voted for Trump in 2016.

Trump still owns rural areas. He own evangelicals. He is strong with non college white males that are over 45 (a lot of rural crosses over here) and he of course owns the hard core, party over country conservatives.

I don't think it's going to be enough.

Biden is the Trump antidote. He's boring, he has a long record of being a moderate, he has had great tragedy in his life (he decided not to run in 2016 because he was mourning his son). Biden is a devout Catholic who goes to church every Sunday which can disarm Trump's claim to the evangelicals. Biden is very well liked in congress. Etc. He's the complete opposite of Trump.

Lastly for those who think Biden will get beat in the debates. It was mentioned that Biden was extremely cautious in the democratic debates because he wanted to be respectful within the party (cuz it needs to be united) and he was more worried about offending the minority, the female and the gay candidates.

He won't have that caution with Trump.

He's also much better in a one on one debate.

I think people are going to be surprised. All Biden has to do is look presidential and not crazy radical.

There may be another key demographic "flipping" on him...Not in the sense of losing their vote overall, there will always be the VPM element. But a poll released yesterday shows that some "religious voters" are a lot more inclined to support Biden than they were Clinton...

"He recently renewed his promise to end federal funding for Planned Parenthood. He drew bipartisan praise for brokering an agreement that’s expected to boost Israel’s influence in the Middle East. And he released an updated list of Supreme Court nominees on Wednesday.

But so far, President Donald Trump’s overtures to religious voters appear to be falling flat.

Months after worries first exploded inside the Trump campaign over his eroding support among white evangelicals and Roman Catholics, some of the president’s top religious allies are now in a panic — concerned that Joe Biden’s attentiveness to Christian voters, whom Democrats largely ignored in 2016, is having an impact where the president can least afford it.

One prominent evangelical leader close to the White House said Biden’s policy positions on abortion and religious freedom, which would normally spoil how some religious voters view the Democratic presidential nominee, have been overshadowed by the contrast between the former vice president’s palpable faith and Trump’s transactional view of religion. Another chided Trump for his “cold response” to the nationwide reckoning over systemic racism, claiming the president’s law-and-order messaging has given Biden an opening to connect with churchgoing Americans who are accustomed to calls for courage and justice.



Their concerns may be registering, according to a new study of Catholic and evangelical voters that suggests Trump is poised to lose a sizable chunk of his Christian voters in November, raising questions about his path to reelection and the potential value in religious outreach that Biden’s predecessor Hillary Clinton largely eschewed."

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-overtures-struggle-register-religious-083019389.html
 
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