2024 thoughts

[cosmickid]

I strongly disagree. That's not where our politics is, actually nowhere close to where it is. Many rust belt inner- city urban areas and widespread rural areas share the same economic issues. But they vote almost polar opposite.... and have become nothing but more polarized in recent decades. It's all culture wars. Today's culture war is rural vs city. That's always been a thing historically, but it's at an extreme level.

Will Wilkinson makes a similar point. Interesting read on the "density divide"...

The Density Divide and the Southernification of Rural America

The Old North/South Split Lives on in the Urban/Rural Divide

modelcitizen.substack.com

 

[Sope Creek]

Right. No doubt Bruce Pearl is a Republican. He does it all -- he cheats, plus acts like a clown.

Bruce Pearl is in Alabama. They've already elected the inestimable Tommy Tuberville to the Senate.

Tommy Tuberville is the Mike Pence of college football.

 

[larsIU]

no because i don't think people equate most economic issues with local elections. they think of taxes, job creation, stimulus, on and on as national matters. culture may influence how individuals perceive the parties' benefit them economically but the most impt issue is still economics

I just find it hard to square all the folks that vote against their own economic interests. Though, perhaps "economic interest" should be broken down into short term vs long term. People definitely vote against their long term economic interest.

Take Twenty's point about rural and inner city folks voting for completely different parties. however, both would benefit from Medicare for all and tighter economic restrictions leading to increased domestic manufacturing. While I'd like to think both of those groups weigh heavily their decision on which of those two things are more important (b/c they don't reside in one party), I don't think that's the case.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I just find it hard to square all the folks that vote against their own economic interests. Though, perhaps "economic interest" should be broken down into short term vs long term. People definitely vote against their long term economic interest.

Take Twenty's point about rural and inner city folks voting for completely different parties. however, both would benefit from Medicare for all and tighter economic restrictions leading to increased domestic manufacturing. While I'd like to think both of those groups weigh heavily their decision on which of those two things are more important (b/c they don't reside in one party), I don't think that's the case.

I get your point. And largely agree. But I think it's hard not to generalize. My own generalizing - - Rural folks see tax abatements and jobs and manufacturing as impt. Urban view things a little differently where wages/rents etc become more impt etc

 

[Cortez88]

that's undeniable. but that too is tethered to how well they perceive they are doing - whether it's their business/market/taxes in an upscale town or manufacturing in a poor rural town. i still firmly believe self-interest dictates the lion's share of votes

I think you are zeroing in on people you know or are in similar circumstances. Yes, a lot of small business owners do vote on taxes and regulations. But read this board or turn on cable news and it’s very apparent that Twenty is correct. People aren’t outraged about policy. They are pissed about trans folks using a bathroom and wedding cakes. Policy plays almost no part in the majority of all voter preferences these days. It’s all cultural and grievance.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I think you are zeroing in on people you know or are in similar circumstances. Yes, a lot of small business owners do vote on taxes and regulations. But read this board or turn on cable news and it’s very apparent that Twenty is correct. People aren’t outraged about policy. They are pissed about trans folks using a bathroom and wedding cakes. Policy plays almost no part in the majority of all voter preferences these days. It’s all cultural and grievance.

I totally disagree. That's what media covers bc it's more interesting and sensational - it won't dictate national voting. Gas/jobs/healthcare/inflation/crime. Not trans folks. The exit polls always say as much. Now I'm not a big believer in polls but I do believe people vote their pocketbooks. It won't be trans and it won't be Afghanistan.

 

[larsIU]

I get your point. And largely agree. But I think it's hard not to generalize. My own generalizing - - Rural folks see tax abatements and jobs and manufacturing as impt. Urban view things a little differently where wages/rents etc become more impt etc

Yeah and even more generalizing...rural might see government as "bad" (except when they don't) and urban might see government as "good" (except for cops and regs they don't like).

The message in national elections is so dumbed down and non specific that you get meaningless sloganeering which can be interpreted to mean anything. Make America Great Again. Yes We Can.

Again?
We Can what?

Local elections tend to be, to an extent, more focused on specific issues.

 

[Sope Creek]

I just find it hard to square all the folks that vote against their own economic interests. Though, perhaps "economic interest" should be broken down into short term vs long term. People definitely vote against their long term economic interest.

Take Twenty's point about rural and inner city folks voting for completely different parties. however, both would benefit from Medicare for all and tighter economic restrictions leading to increased domestic manufacturing. While I'd like to think both of those groups weigh heavily their decision on which of those two things are more important (b/c they don't reside in one party), I don't think that's the case.

I think economic interests prevail until a voter finds they have "sufficient" (what is "sufficient" can vary from person to person) economic resources, and then they vote other issues. Think of the culture wars as an indication that policies on the economic issues have been "successful".

The issue then becomes that people want to change the successful economic policies to suit them, thinking that nobody's going to move their cheese in the process of that change. Well . . . .

 

[DANC]

Nonsense. People will always vote on the economy (gas/jobs/taxes etc), healthcare. And now to a certain degree in certain areas crime may make the list or whatever else is the flavor of the month but the economy and how people are doing will always top the list.

As for Chicago where do you think it is? We all live close to Chicago. Hell we're an iu board. Half our friends live in Chicago. My best friend lives on the north side and just this past weekend randomly brought up car jackings there. We visit regularly and talk to our friends there regularly. Hell I personally helped a Chicago buddy secure one of the 28 cannabis infuser licenses in Illinois. one of the guys posting here literally drives a truck around Chicago for a living. Crime there is reported regularly on the national news bc it's the big Midwest city so people are more aware of it than kc or Cincy and frankly it's far more important nationally than the rest of the midwest. You act like it's 2,500 miles away. It's most the board's home or neighbor. and crime is on the rise everywhere but again chicago is the jewel of the midwest so it garners the most attention. nevertheless it's really only a talking point for discussion boards and to fill newspapers. peoples' pocketbooks will always carry the day.

The rural/urban divide certainly has differences in cultural norms but that too is less impt than the economy and jobs. How did trump "win" the rural vote? MAGA jobs - bring back manufacturing.

Money - taxes, healthcare, jobs, inflation will always carry the day. The rest is just talk.

4. Important issues in the 2020 election

With the country in the midst of a recession, nearly eight-in-ten registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important to them in making their

www.pewresearch.org

Here's what mattered most to voters in the 2020 election, according to exit polls

The economy, the coronavirus pandemic and racial injustice were top issues for voters in the 2020 presidential election, according to NBC News exit polls.

www.google.com

Yeah, WTF? He thinks no one here goes to Chicago?

I guess the fact people avoid half the city like the plague means it's a great city!

Good Lord.

 

[DANC]

I entirely disagree. The biggest predictor of how people vote is what zip code they live in. The numbers are blatantly obvious.

Trump ran his entire political machine on a cultural argument. The economic stuff was simply window dressing that fit cultural predispositions

Duh! That's because the economy was roaring until the virus.

Of course they'll tend to focus on cultural issues when their bellies are full.

Funny a lot of voting in those 'zip codes' stopped counting votes at exactly the same time.

 

[twenty02]

I think economic interests prevail until a voter finds they have "sufficient" (what is "sufficient" can vary from person to person) economic resources, and then the vote other issues. Think of the culture wars as an indication that policies on the economic issues have been "successful".

The issue then becomes that people want to change the successful economic policies to suit them, thinking that nobody's going to move their cheese in the process of that change. Well . . . .

I tend to agree. And I'm not even sure it's cultural "issues". Issues imply there is some debate about actual social public policy that drive voter behavior. When I say politics is all about culture, I don't really mean it's solely about issues that are even much debated. It's more I'm on team red/ blue..... and voting or saying something nice about the other team would be like a St Louis resident rolling around town in a Cubs uniform.

And while I agree with @mcmurtry66 that many of voters are not driven by social policies, but there are certainly plenty that are. He clearly doesn't spend much time with the one of the main pillars of the GOP voting bloc, the social conservatives.

Conservatives at their core want things kept as they are.... or more often than not what they used to be in a "better time". Progressives don't much like how things are and think there is something out there that is better.

But how this all gets packaged and regurgitated via our political system is a hot mess, that typically makes no coherent sense to anyone that peels back a few layers.

I really wish there was a lot less voting and a lot less campaigning in general. Something is seriously broken here, and I'm not sure it's fixable. I think the people that ignore it all and don't participate may be onto something.

 

[Sope Creek]

He clearly doesn't spend much time with the one of the main pillars of the GOP voting bloc, the social conservatives.

Dude lives in Missouri . . . it's more likely that he's so surrounded by social conservatives that he doesn't even see them any more. Like those of us in Georgia . . . .

 

[twenty02]

Dude lives in Missouri . . . it's more likely that he's so surrounded by social conservatives that he doesn't even see them any more. Like those of us in Georgia . . . .

Well he just told us he spends most of his time hanging out at Starbucks with rich people and meeting with business owners throughout the state. And he lives in an urban area. We're all a stereotype.

 

[Sope Creek]

Conservatives at their core want things kept as they are.... or more often than not what they used to be in a "better time". Progressives don't much like how things are and think there is something out there that is better.

Interesting . . . I've been thinking that the conservatives today are the ones who don't like things as they are, and want to change things so badly they'll go to any length - including insurrection - to get their way. As such, they're radicals.

Liberals are trying to hang onto what little is left of a society that "worked" for a generation or two . . . and Progressives are just getting started beating their chests about moving society further along the path that Liberals are defending.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Will Wilkinson makes a similar point. Interesting read on the "density divide"...

The Density Divide and the Southernification of Rural America

The Old North/South Split Lives on in the Urban/Rural Divide

modelcitizen.substack.com

You could be him. He could be you. Which is not a good thing.

 

[Sope Creek]

Well he just told us he spends most of his time hanging out at Starbucks with rich people and meeting with business owners throughout the state. And he lives in an urban area. We're all a stereotype.

Ohhhh . . . mc is not going to live this down . . . I won't let him.

 

[mcmurtry66]

Well he just told us he spends most of his time hanging out at Starbucks with rich people and meeting with business owners throughout the state. And he lives in an urban area. We're all a stereotype.

yeah and i don't fit in with either group dammit!! i think we're at the point where we legitimately have five parties smashed into two

 

[mcmurtry66]

speaking of 2024

Wealthy GOP donors flock to DeSantis as presidential speculation swirls

DeSantis has become the face of Republican efforts to fight anti-Covid mandates.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Sope Creek]

yeah and i don't fit in with either group dammit!! i think we're at the point where we legitimately have five parties smashed into two

What are the five?

 

[larsIU]

Well he just told us he spends most of his time hanging out at Starbucks with rich people and meeting with business owners throughout the state. And he lives in an urban area. We're all a stereotype.

.

I couldn't help myself

 

[mcmurtry66]

What are the five?

progressives and mod dems; est conservatives; new rinos; trump republicans. libertarians voting republican. there's certainly overlap but it's all a messy soup at the moment.

 

[twenty02]

Yeah, WTF? He thinks no one here goes to Chicago?

I guess the fact people avoid half the city like the plague means it's a great city!

Good Lord.

Lol.... we've had "conservstive" posters here within the last couple of weeks say they avoid driving through Indianapolis while traveling as they are worried about getting shot in a drive by or being carjacked. That's how completely disjointed from reality people actually are, having made up some boogeyman scenario in their head.

 

[mcmurtry66]

.

I couldn't help myself

Shit I haven't had to wear a suit in years. Congrats on Ronaldo by the way. They'll have to figure out a number for him I guess

 

[twenty02]

progressives and mod dems; est conservatives; new rinos; trump republicans. libertarians voting republican. there's certainly overlap but it's all a messy soup at the moment.

I believe it was @IUCrazy2 that posted a good long form article about 4 different Americas recently that seemed pretty reasonable.

 

[mcmurtry66]

I believe it was @IUCrazy2 that posted a good long form article about 4 different Americas recently that seemed pretty reasonable.

I read that post. Yes.

 

[Sope Creek]

.

I couldn't help myself

I guess I don't need to do anything . . . to keep mc from living this down.

 

[IUCrazy2]

Yeah and even more generalizing...rural might see government as "bad" (except when they don't) and urban might see government as "good" (except for cops and regs they don't like).

The message in national elections is so dumbed down and non specific that you get meaningless sloganeering which can be interpreted to mean anything. Make America Great Again. Yes We Can.

Again?
We Can what?

Local elections tend to be, to an extent, more focused on specific issues.

I think cultural differences do play a large role. There are all sorts of reasons behind that which could fill a book...or more.

As far as elections go, I was watching a podcast a few days back that had a guest on that said our elections are WWE promos. The guy who said it is viewed as the devil by half the people on the board so I won't bother posting it, but his point is that the planning and deals are made in the back where no one is watching and that the two sides then come out and play their role on the particular topic.

There are some things economically where I am open to arguments from the Democrats, but their general world view ensures that, as currently constituted, they will never get my vote. And the majority of that is culturally related.

Edit to add: And that is not because I think all Democrats are bad people or anything, there are just some huge differences I have with some things that make it hard to vote for them, even when we could find areas of agreement on certain topics.

 

[IUCrazy2]

I believe it was @IUCrazy2 that posted a good long form article about 4 different Americas recently that seemed pretty reasonable.

How America Fractured Into Four Parts

People in the United States no longer agree on the nation’s purpose, values, history, or meaning. Is reconciliation possible?

www.google.com

Here it is if anyone missed and is interested.

 

[twenty02]

I think cultural differences do play a large role. There are all sorts of reasons behind that which could fill a book...or more.

As far as elections go, I was watching a podcast a few days back that had a guest on that said our elections are WWE promos. The guy who said it is viewed as the devil by half the people on the board so I won't bother posting it, but his point is that the planning and deals are made in the back where no one is watching and that the two sides then come out and play their role on the particular topic.

There are some things economically where I am open to arguments from the Democrats, but their general world view ensures that, as currently constituted, they will never get my vote. And the majority of that is culturally related.

Over the last several years I've come to accept that Congress in particular is complete and total kabuki theater. Whatever real work is actually done, is done by boring committees that nobody bothers to even read about or discuss.

 

[larsIU]

Shit I haven't had to wear a suit in years. Congrats on Ronaldo by the way. They'll have to figure out a number for him I guess

Cavani's gonna give it up if the Premier League lets him

 

[mcmurtry66]

Cavani's gonna give it up if the Premier League lets him

lots of money in that cr7 brand....

 

[dbmhoosier]

 

[IUCrazy2]

Over the last several years I've come to accept that Congress in particular is complete and total kabuki theater. Whatever real work is actually done, is done by boring committees that nobody bothers to even read about or discuss.

It is all kabuki theater. The talking heads on the news. People at the National Review. Outside of cultural differences the two parties tend to run the country similarly. They argue over taxes that generally only impact a small sliver of the country. Foreign policy tends to be similar other than the WWE theater we get. Obama apologized all over the world and Trump said screw you but they both drone striked people. They both leaned on our partners to do more. They both were pivoting to dealing with China. Both parties spend like drunken sailors, they only disagree on how much the debt should be increased and what the money should be spent on.

We fight and they do their deals.

 

[twenty02]

It is all kabuki theater. The talking heads on the news. People at the National Review. Outside of cultural differences the two parties tend to run the country similarly. They argue over taxes that generally only impact a small sliver of the country. Foreign policy tends to be similar other than the WWE theater we get. Obama apologized all over the world and Trump said screw you but they both drone striked people. They both leaned on our partners to do more. They both were pivoting to dealing with China. Both parties spend like drunken sailors, they only disagree on how much the debt should be increased and what the money should be spent on.

We fight and they do their deals.

Don't worry... the NEXT election is sure to be the most important one in our lifetime. Until the one after that.

 

[Sope Creek]

It is all kabuki theater. The talking heads on the news. People at the National Review. Outside of cultural differences the two parties tend to run the country similarly. They argue over taxes that generally only impact a small sliver of the country. Foreign policy tends to be similar other than the WWE theater we get. Obama apologized all over the world and Trump said screw you but they both drone striked people. They both leaned on our partners to do more. They both were pivoting to dealing with China. Both parties spend like drunken sailors, they only disagree on how much the debt should be increased and what the money should be spent on.

We fight and they do their deals.

So you're saying that the Cooler is kabuki theater too . . .

. . . and here I thought I was saving the world . . . .

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Lol.... we've had "conservstive" posters here within the last couple of weeks say they avoid driving through Indianapolis while traveling as they are worried about getting shot in a drive by or being carjacked. That's how completely disjointed from reality people actually are, having made up some boogeyman scenario in their head.

Well, I'm convinced that everyone in the country is driving through Indy since they closed the north split...because every friggin' one of them drives right through town and by my place, semis and all...even though there are signs out on 465 telling them to go around.

 

[mushroomgod_1]

Don't worry... the NEXT election is sure to be the most important one in our lifetime. Until the one after that.

It takes a while for an empire to die.

 

[dbmhoosier]

It takes a while for an empire to die.

Not under Biden.

 

[Bulk VanderHuge]

Not under Biden.

Sad that you think this great country is so weak. We did survive 2016-20, so we should be fine.

 

[larsIU]

It takes a while for an empire to die.

Not under Biden.

Y'all need a fainting couch?

Some pearls to clutch?