Which side has more quiet or embarrassed voters this time around?

[IUNorth]

Actually, the polls were worse in 2020 than they were in 2016. But most people would be surprised to hear that, because the outcome was what everybody expected.

But the polls right now are so tight that even slight error either way could affect the outcome. And there will be some error.

A lot of people assume that whatever error there is will favor Trump. It did in 2016 and 2020, after all. But I think it’s folly to look at that and assume that he’ll necessarily get the benefit of the error again.

I genuinely believe that either candidate could win this race. And also that nobody should have much confidence that their candidate will prevail…especially if there’s any assumption factored in that the error will favor Trump again.

that was kinda my main intended point...it feels like everyone is assuming Trump will win because of past errors in his favor with the polls leading up to the elections.

I'm not so sure this year it'll go that way, because its just a strange and different dynamic this time around.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

This machete wielding 18 year old punk wasn’t shy about who he supports:

Florida teen with machete arrested for voter intimidation at polling place

An 18-year-old was arrested outside a Florida polling location Tuesday after police said he wielded a machete in order to intimidate voters.

abcnews.go.com

I hope he gets maximum punishment. Some might think he’s a patriot like the J6 criminals.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

that was kinda my main intended point...it feels like everyone is assuming Trump will win because of past errors in his favor with the polls leading up to the elections.

I'm not so sure this year it'll go that way, because its just a strange and different dynamic this time around.

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

 

[hoot1]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

There is also the problem according to some pollsters the tight races by election day could fall within the margin of error.

 

[jet812]

Trump and his mouthpieces are already talking about a rigged election if he loses. It will start election night when the race is close and ballots remain uncounted. They will continue doing it, and if they lose, we will have a replay of 2020. Rigged election theories, fake electors, pressuring state and federal officials to not certify.

This is where the Trump voters who are not DMB super fans lose me. They all know that all of the will happen and they just shrug their shoulders and say well it’s better than Harris. It’s just such a terrible thing that sane people will just accept.

Yep. A few contentious months are better than 4 years of advancing policy I think is bad. Trumps actions & words will be divisive for a few months, but ultimately fruitless, while Harris’s words & policy will be divisive for 4 years but will have a lasting impact on our nation, imo.

 

[jet812]

One question I've never had sufficiently answered is what about all the down ballot Republicans who win their elections in swing states and other places where the MAGA crowd claims the election is rigged. Admittedly I don't follow the election fraud conspiracy theories close enough, but do they believe their wins are rigged too and just OK with it?

You’re assuming Dems are the only potential riggers…

 

[jet812]

Thank you for proving my point. Carry on Trump soldier.

So that data/sheet/post is false or bunk? Should be easy to prove it is legit then…

 

[Willdog7]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, its going to be a shit show.

I'm afraid I have to disagree with you, Harris/Waltz will win.

 

[SqueakyClean]

There is also something to be said for polls having an effect on turnout. It's possible that some people see the poll results showing a candidate with a clear lead and deciding, "Meh, Hillary already has it in the bag, what's my one vote going to make a difference, and I still haven't caught Sunday's new Game of Thrones episode." So you end up with less turnout, and a surprising Trump win in Wisconsin, etc.

With Democrats seeing that this race is being tight (and seriously, you can't open any CNN / Fox / MSN homepage without seeing headlines about how close this is), you will potentially get better turnout because people know that their vote could be critical this time around.

 

[T.M.P.]

One question I've never had sufficiently answered is what about all the down ballot Republicans who win their elections in swing states and other places where the MAGA crowd claims the election is rigged. Admittedly I don't follow the election fraud conspiracy theories close enough, but do they believe their wins are rigged too and just OK with it?

You're applying reasoning and logic to a MAGA brain.

It doesn't work like that ...

 

[mrhighlife]

IUNorth, pretty agree.

Did notice like so many posters at the Cooler you mentioned cheating. In your case the charge was leveled at both sides.

Is there really all that many attempts to cheat. Heck, cheating takes effort. My concern goes more in the direction of fair minded citizens who are turned off by the negativity and disgusting way politics are conducted. Citizens who simply are fed up and don't participate.

Maybe watch for abnormal jumps in women voting? Or lopsided women vs men?

Women may be the quiet Harris vote that people are trying to figure out.

 

[snarlcakes]

Women may be the quiet Harris vote that people are trying to figure out.

 

[BradStevens]

No way to retrieve it? Unbelievable.

View embedded media

They should be deported.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

Because a large portion of the Trump base, white rural working class voters, are hard to reach and don't take polls. The Harris base is all easy to reach.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Because a large portion of the Trump base, white rural working class voters, are hard to reach and don't take polls. The Harris base is all easy to reach.

Let’s suppose this is correct and central to why pollsters missed him before.

Don’t you think they’d correct for this in their weighting?

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

No way to retrieve it? Unbelievable.

View embedded media

We've been over this. Of course there is no way to retrieve it. If there were a way, we'd live in a dictatorship.

 

[TheOriginalHappyGoat]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

Historically speaking, polling errors favor Dems half the time and Repubs half the time. There's no way to know ahead of time which way it will fall.

 

[T.M.P.]

Or lopsided women

Phrasing ...

 

[OpenWheels]

A coin flip election.

Tails we lose huge. Heads we're fv#ked.
,

 

[abraxis]

Tucker bringing up the McDonalds political move not being fake is a weird thing to say considering it really was fake.

They closed the restaurant and had screened customers/supporters go through the drive thru. Yes, he was really there and yes he really served fries, but it was 100% a political stunt.

Sure his McDonald’s visit was a stunt. That’s why cameras were there to record the best parts. Everything a politician does is a political stunt.

I think Trump wins, based upon what my political guru, Bill O’Reilly has told me, not face to face, but face to TV set. He gives his final prediction tomorrow night, Halloween, but every thing he’s said so far, the latest just last week, Trump is ahead. It’s close, but he’s ahead. It allows me to rest well at night.

 

[BradStevens]

Update on my neck of the woods:

The house on the corner of our block (actually the next block up) just put up their Trump signs high up on their trees right on the corner along with an American flag. They are the only ones I've seen put up Trump signs in my village and I was reminded they did so in 16 and 20 as well. The lot they live on is about 5 or 6 lots, absolutely enormous. And the kicker? They are elderly Hispanics.

For them, no fvcks given.

 

[snarlcakes]

Update on my neck of the woods:

The house on the corner of our block (actually the next block up) just put up their Trump signs high up on their trees right on the corner along with an American flag. They are the only ones I've seen put up Trump signs in my village and I was reminded they did so in 16 and 20 as well. The lot they live on is about 5 or 6 lots, absolutely enormous. And the kicker? They are elderly Hispanics.

For them, no fvcks given.

They f#ck. You need to hang out with them more. Do you mind inviting them to the Dream Team charcuterie party at your house?

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Update on my neck of the woods:

The house on the corner of our block (actually the next block up) just put up their Trump signs high up on their trees right on the corner along with an American flag. They are the only ones I've seen put up Trump signs in my village and I was reminded they did so in 16 and 20 as well. The lot they live on is about 5 or 6 lots, absolutely enormous. And the kicker? They are elderly Hispanics.

For them, no fvcks given.

Is that the house with the massive Xmas light display?

 

[BradStevens]

Is that the house with the massive Xmas light display?

No. Different house.

They have to put the signs so high up because in 16 people ripped them off the trees. I have a pic on my phone from 20 when they had one of their yard workers, a Hispanic guy, up on the ladder nailing the sign into the big oak tree. Thought it was hilarious.

 

[cosmickid]

that was kinda my main intended point...it feels like everyone is assuming Trump will win because of past errors in his favor with the polls leading up to the elections.

I'm not so sure this year it'll go that way, because its just a strange and different dynamic this time around.

Harry Enten was curious about this phenomenon, and went back and investigated how many times 1 party or the other has been victims of polling errors in 3 straight Presidential elections. It's never happened before as pollsters have always fixed their errors by the 3rd election. Considering how pollsters have grossly underestimated Dem strength in each election since Dobbs, particularly the 2022 midterms it's far more likely they are missing Harris voters, rather than Trumpers...

 

[IUNorth]

Harry Enten was curious about this phenomenon, and went back and investigated how many times 1 party or the other has been victims of polling errors in 3 straight Presidential elections. It's never happened before as pollsters have always fixed their errors by the 3rd election. Considering how pollsters have grossly underestimated Dem strength in each election since Dobbs, particularly the 2022 midterms it's far more likely they are missing Harris voters, rather than Trumpers...

View embedded media

Interesting... thanks for sharing.

 

[OpenWheels]

Harry Enten was curious about this phenomenon, and went back and investigated how many times 1 party or the other has been victims of polling errors in 3 straight Presidential elections. It's never happened before as pollsters have always fixed their errors by the 3rd election. Considering how pollsters have grossly underestimated Dem strength in each election since Dobbs, particularly the 2022 midterms it's far more likely they are missing Harris voters, rather than Trumpers...

View embedded media

Or they adjusted and not missing Dems anymore. Usually they don't miss on the same side for many elections as you indicated. They adjust their methods and modeling.

Or, Dems are ballot harvesting in Pennsylvania.

 

[UncleMark]

They have to put the signs so high up because in 16 people ripped them off the trees. I have a pic on my phone from 20 when they had one of their yard workers, a Hispanic guy, up on the ladder nailing the sign into the big oak tree. Thought it was hilarious.

I drive through a nice neighborhood in Bedford every day, one of those with big stately houses from the early 20th century lining the street. A number of Trump signs but a handful of Harris ones too, that I have noticed are no longer displayed in the yard but are instead showing through the windows -- evidently they had to bring them inside.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

On the way to her work my wife drives by a house she calls The Trump Lady House and said it has 100s of signs, flags, banners and other Trump stuff. I decided to check it out while visiting the wife at work and she's right. I've never seen so much stuff at one house. She sells the stuff too. I almost stopped to ask if she also had some Harris signs.

 

[mattndallas]

Child's Play.

I've been to the ultimate Trump store...in a small town in Virginia that happens to be on the way from Pinehurst Resort to the Greenbrier Resort (Stoll can explain to the shitlibs why those places are important).

It's a vision from God (and NASCAR)...and it's glorious!!! 😄

Taylor says the inspiration came to him on a rainy day in Daytona with his son, “I told him, I said get that Gideon’s bible out. We’re gonna pray Jeremiah 33:3. That’s the only place in the bible God actually called him. And my son said what d’ya think God is telling you, dad? I said, he told me to help Donald Trump! It came in my spirit. And he said, how are you going to help him? I said, well, the girl I’ve been buying the t-shirts from – I’m going to call her and order a thousand. He said, oh, dad! Don’t be so crazy. Just get a hundred. I said, go big or go home, boy! If God’s telling us to do this, we’ll sell every one of them. If not, we’ll throw them in the trash can and leave. We’re not broke!”

The Trump Store and Boones Mill offer a snapshot of America's political landscape

At the solitary stoplight in Boones Mill along Route 220 in Franklin County sits The Trump Store. Impossible to miss, the store and the town offer a snapshot of America’s political landscape.

www.wvtf.org

 

[JamieDimonsBalls]

Actually, the polls were worse in 2020 than they were in 2016. But most people would be surprised to hear that, because the outcome was what everybody expected.

But the polls right now are so tight that even slight error either way could affect the outcome. And there will be some error.

A lot of people assume that whatever error there is will favor Trump. It did in 2016 and 2020, after all. But I think it’s folly to look at that and assume that he’ll necessarily get the benefit of the error again.

I genuinely believe that either candidate could win this race. And also that nobody should have much confidence that their candidate will prevail…especially if there’s any assumption factored in that the error will favor Trump again.

that was kinda my main intended point...it feels like everyone is assuming Trump will win because of past errors in his favor with the polls leading up to the elections.

I'm not so sure this year it'll go that way, because its just a strange and different dynamic this time around.

You both could be right, but there are many factors that would indicate Trump would be under-represented in the polls given self-identification based on party, American feelings towards the Biden / Harris administration, and his uprising in PA.

National Climate, Polling Points to a Trump Victory

Currently, both the national climate and the polling seems to point to a Trump victory in November. For instance, according to polling averages , only 28% of Americans say the country is going in the

www.realclearpennsylvania.com

 

[TR32]

How many middlish voters will vote for Harris, solely because of how awful a human being Trump is.

Versus...

How many middlish voters will vote for Trump, solely because of how progressive Harris is.

Very true and certainly disappointing to me that Democrats could have simply picked a solid centrist and still garnered all of the progressive votes.

But just days from the election I refuse to believe there are that many morally corrupt Americans who would actually cast a vote for Trump after everything he's said and done.

 

[IUNorth]

Very true and certainly disappointing to me that Democrats could have simply picked a solid centrist and still garnered all of the progressive votes.

But just days from the election I refuse to believe there are that many morally corrupt Americans who would actually cast a vote for Trump after everything he's said and done.

Logic tells me Harris is a long shot, despite the very tight polls. Although, I am genuinely intrigued by my original topic, and how that will turn out.

I don't know why, or how, I disagree with your 2nd sentence, but I do. Mainly because I know some very, very good people that are ardent Trump supporters. And the answer isn't "they're not actually good people, they must be morally corrupt deep down"...because they are good people, and they aren't morally corrupt. I personally dislike him, DEEPLY. And it'd take a level of awful human, I've not yet encountered running for any political offices, for me to vote for him. But if he wins, I will "support" him. Him doing a good job is better for all of us than him failing and "bankrupting" the United States (which is very possible given his history of failures and bankruptcies).

The main hope I have right now is Trump is a loser to his core. He loses quite a lot more than he wins. He's one of the few humans on the planet that could have possibly lost to Biden and then Harris. So just like nominating someone as progressive as Harris gave Trump an unlikely chance to win. Trump gives a historically unpopular administration, with a pretty bad new leading candidate, an unlikely chance to win.

Buckle up...we probably won't know who won for a few weeks yet.