Which side has more quiet or embarrassed voters this time around?

[IUNorth]

Actually, the polls were worse in 2020 than they were in 2016. But most people would be surprised to hear that, because the outcome was what everybody expected.

But the polls right now are so tight that even slight error either way could affect the outcome. And there will be some error.

A lot of people assume that whatever error there is will favor Trump. It did in 2016 and 2020, after all. But I think it’s folly to look at that and assume that he’ll necessarily get the benefit of the error again.

I genuinely believe that either candidate could win this race. And also that nobody should have much confidence that their candidate will prevail…especially if there’s any assumption factored in that the error will favor Trump again.

that was kinda my main intended point...it feels like everyone is assuming Trump will win because of past errors in his favor with the polls leading up to the elections.

I'm not so sure this year it'll go that way, because its just a strange and different dynamic this time around.

 

[Aloha Hoosier]

This machete wielding 18 year old punk wasn’t shy about who he supports:

Florida teen with machete arrested for voter intimidation at polling place

An 18-year-old was arrested outside a Florida polling location Tuesday after police said he wielded a machete in order to intimidate voters.

abcnews.go.com

I hope he gets maximum punishment. Some might think he’s a patriot like the J6 criminals.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

that was kinda my main intended point...it feels like everyone is assuming Trump will win because of past errors in his favor with the polls leading up to the elections.

I'm not so sure this year it'll go that way, because its just a strange and different dynamic this time around.

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

 

[hoot1]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

There is also the problem according to some pollsters the tight races by election day could fall within the margin of error.

 

[jet812]

Trump and his mouthpieces are already talking about a rigged election if he loses. It will start election night when the race is close and ballots remain uncounted. They will continue doing it, and if they lose, we will have a replay of 2020. Rigged election theories, fake electors, pressuring state and federal officials to not certify.

This is where the Trump voters who are not DMB super fans lose me. They all know that all of the will happen and they just shrug their shoulders and say well it’s better than Harris. It’s just such a terrible thing that sane people will just accept.

Yep. A few contentious months are better than 4 years of advancing policy I think is bad. Trumps actions & words will be divisive for a few months, but ultimately fruitless, while Harris’s words & policy will be divisive for 4 years but will have a lasting impact on our nation, imo.

 

[jet812]

One question I've never had sufficiently answered is what about all the down ballot Republicans who win their elections in swing states and other places where the MAGA crowd claims the election is rigged. Admittedly I don't follow the election fraud conspiracy theories close enough, but do they believe their wins are rigged too and just OK with it?

You’re assuming Dems are the only potential riggers…

 

[jet812]

Thank you for proving my point. Carry on Trump soldier.

So that data/sheet/post is false or bunk? Should be easy to prove it is legit then…

 

[Willdog7]

I think the most common and accepted belief is that Trump is likely going to win, with all these polling numbers showing that he's relatively even, within the margin of error. And I think a big reason for that was what happened in 2016. Where nearly all exit polling showed Clinton winning, in some cases handily, only to have Trump flip it all and win nearly everywhere it was close. Afterwards, that surprise was chalked up to significant numbers of voters not being honest, or not wanting to admit they were voting for Trump.

I wonder this time around though, if there might not be a better chance that potential Harris voters are the ones that would be more likely to not want to give that info to pollsters? Maybe its because of where I live, which is a heavy Trump supporting area, but it sure seems like the "quiet" vote this time would be a Harris vote.

There was a piece on one of the national news shows last night that made me think of this. They followed, and interviewed a couple of people in rural Georgia. One of them was a Trump supporter. One was someone that had historically been a Republican voter, but will be voting for Harris. She said there were "a lot" of people in her area that were going to vote for Harris, but that wouldn't tell pollsters, or really anyone that they were.

I guess we'll see in 6 days. One thing is virtually certain, its going to be a shit show.

I'm afraid I have to disagree with you, Harris/Waltz will win.

 

[SqueakyClean]

There is also something to be said for polls having an effect on turnout. It's possible that some people see the poll results showing a candidate with a clear lead and deciding, "Meh, Hillary already has it in the bag, what's my one vote going to make a difference, and I still haven't caught Sunday's new Game of Thrones episode." So you end up with less turnout, and a surprising Trump win in Wisconsin, etc.

With Democrats seeing that this race is being tight (and seriously, you can't open any CNN / Fox / MSN homepage without seeing headlines about how close this is), you will potentially get better turnout because people know that their vote could be critical this time around.

 

[T.M.P.]

One question I've never had sufficiently answered is what about all the down ballot Republicans who win their elections in swing states and other places where the MAGA crowd claims the election is rigged. Admittedly I don't follow the election fraud conspiracy theories close enough, but do they believe their wins are rigged too and just OK with it?

You're applying reasoning and logic to a MAGA brain.

It doesn't work like that ...

 

[mrhighlife]

IUNorth, pretty agree.

Did notice like so many posters at the Cooler you mentioned cheating. In your case the charge was leveled at both sides.

Is there really all that many attempts to cheat. Heck, cheating takes effort. My concern goes more in the direction of fair minded citizens who are turned off by the negativity and disgusting way politics are conducted. Citizens who simply are fed up and don't participate.

Maybe watch for abnormal jumps in women voting? Or lopsided women vs men?

Women may be the quiet Harris vote that people are trying to figure out.

 

[snarlcakes]

Women may be the quiet Harris vote that people are trying to figure out.

 

[BradStevens]

No way to retrieve it? Unbelievable.

View embedded media

They should be deported.

 

[dbmhoosier]

Yeah, I don’t think there’s actually any cause to make that assumption. It’s just an expectation because it’s happened before (twice). Trump did 6% better in Wisconsin than his polling average in both 2016 and 2020. Ergo, the slight polling average he has now will translate into a relatively comfortable victory for him there.

IMO, it’s just as likely that whatever polling error there ends up being will favor Harris.

Because a large portion of the Trump base, white rural working class voters, are hard to reach and don't take polls. The Harris base is all easy to reach.

 

[crazed_hoosier2]

Because a large portion of the Trump base, white rural working class voters, are hard to reach and don't take polls. The Harris base is all easy to reach.

Let’s suppose this is correct and central to why pollsters missed him before.

Don’t you think they’d correct for this in their weighting?