well the latest relief bill failed today so hopefully more attention will be paid to the 8 million and growing that have fallen into poverty as a result of the pandemic and restrictions.
Trump Covid adviser Scott Atlas pushes herd immunity
- Thread starter sglowrider
- Start date
Just to interject a reminder.
Studies of the economies of American cities during the Spanish Flu showed that cities which had stricter quarantine rules in place had stronger and quicker economic rebounds than cities that had looser restrictions. This appears to primarily be because the latter cities suffered larger losses of the working-age population.
This does not mean, of course, that the same would hold true, today. All diseases are different. All times are different. For one thing, this current epidemic doesn't appear to be targeting the same age demographics as Spanish Flu. That said, old people are pretty important consumers.
Anyway, I throw this in here again only to point out that it's important for us to look big picture. A more successful response to this epidemic may result in better economic growth down the road, even if the pain and inconvenience is greater in the short run.
The problem is “the short run.” We’ve already sent 8 mil plus into poverty since May. If we knew that a vaccine was going to work with a date certain more drastic measures (lockdowns) would be tenable. Without an answer to the temporal element I’m coming to igw’s side that we need new ideas. You look at Chicago and other places and their answer seems to be revisiting last March. The cure is worse than the virus in that respect imo. Our response is creating new health problems for a virus that still only impacts a tiny portion of people under 70
Two things:
1. My point is that we need to look past the "short run." I'm not saying those 8 million aren't important. I'm saying that we need to look at which solutions will bring the largest number of them back out of poverty, and in good health. That may not be the same thing as bringing them out of poverty as fast as possible.
2. I'm working under the assumption that a vaccine will eventually be available, because if not, then letting the disease run its course - with all the deaths that entails - is the only other option available, and I'm not ready to fall back on that alternative. Sadly, we may eventually be forced to, but not yet, please.
What if it takes a year for a vaccine? How long do we continue to disrupt education? I have 2 kids at a very reputable ACC school & higher education is a joke right now. Maybe it’s ok for those wanting an online degree from the U of Phoenix or the local tech school , but a reputable 4 year university?? It’s a f—-ing joke
1), we need to be realistic about the chances of developing and testing a vaccine, and then inoculating everyone, sooner than a significant percent of the population won't have already acquired it anyway.
something that seems totally ignored in all discussions.
2) polls show a good percent of the population won't take the vaccine anyway.
something else totally ignored in all discussions.
3) a good percentage of the population flat isn't going to distance or mask any more, let alone for another 6, 12, 18 months, so any strategy dependent on them doing so is idiocracy imo, and designed to fail from the start.
4) half or more of the population can relatively safely acquire herd immunity, and we already know who that group is.
in addition, many over 50 have already said "f" it, and have no intention of locking down, distancing, or wearing masks any more.
add the relatively immune and those who have already voluntarily said "f" it, and we probably have 70% of the population to either safely build herd immunity with, or who are already voluntarily pursuing that end on their own..
4) money wise, what is being talked about for the next round of covid stimulous, (2 trillion), would finance $1,000 mo for almost every person in the country 50 yrs or older for over a year and a half, so not like the current "no plan" hope for a miracle plan, is cheaper than just financing those who need to totally lock down while the rest of the population acquires herd immunity. (say 3 months or less).
5) if there is no herd immunity we're all screwed anyway, but i don't know of anyone who got a Spanish flu vaccine last yr.
6) point being we need to logistically and financially enable those at risk who don't want to take their chances to totally lock down for say 3 months while everybody else goes back to normal life, (no masks, no distancing, full stadiums and arenas, concerts, classes), and we as a group acquire heard immunity for the freed universe, while the locked down universe is basically in quarantine for 3 months, so they shouldn't be carriers either at that point.
that of course won't solve everything, but will establish herd immunity quickly for the freed universe and make the locked down universe pretty much covid free, while a vaccine is still pursued until one is perfected, and/or a cure, or we find there is no longer a need for either anymore. (big pharma, thus the media they fund, will hate this plan).
so once testing shows continued spread at virtually zero, even the "at risk" can come out of their bunkers far more safely than now, while a vaccine and cure can still be pursued full steam ahead in the mean time.
7) what i suggest is much like what's going on now,
EXCEPT,
A), i'm probably cutting the time till herd immunity to maybe 3 months instead of maybe 12 months dragging things out as we are now doing.
B), i'm enabling those who need and wish to lockdown in the mean time to financially and logistically do so, and hopefully limit deaths to a fraction of what we'll otherwise experience by doing so.
C), in totally freeing say 65% of the population to return to normal life the minute the financing is in place, (the 65% who do maybe 90 plus % of discretionary spending at that), so hopefully businesses large and small can get back to more normal business revenues on literally day one of our saying "go" on such a plan.
disclaimer,
while deeply flawed, and still with many deaths and some continued economic hardship, i still think we would have a fraction of the deaths as we are currently headed for, a fraction of the economic ruin, and a fraction of the time to return to normalcy for all.
that said, i'm all in for a better plan if anybody has one.
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Sorry, once I got through three or four lines of this nonsense, and didn't see the phrase "Wall Street Party," I kind of gave up.
The death rate varies very widely from one state to another based on antibody studies from the CDC (yeah, I know). The CDC's prevelance estimates for August, combined with death counts, suggest that the IFR was at least 10 times higher in Connecticut than in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, or Utah.
sorry you missed the part at the end where i asked for your better plan.
but now i'm giving you a second chance to lay it out in full.
can't wait to hear it.
Did Sweden’s coronavirus experiment pay off? Not really
While much of Europe locked-down, Sweden went with a different plan, but the data suggests that the country's relaxed approach didn't work
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist and the architect of the national response, has described the decision to keep society open as a holistic view of public health, aiming to balance the risk of the virus with avoiding the long-term consequences of closing schools and businesses. It is a popular view among many Swedes.
“In one way, I believe the Swedish strategy has been advantageous because of its clear focus to keep society working and keep children at school,” says Jonas Ludvigsson, an epidemiologist at the Karolinska Institute. “Learning is important for future health. And with a crashing economy, there will not only be less money for healthcare, but budget cuts which means there will be less money to help the teenagers with drug problems, single mums with small children. How much would that affect their health in the long term?”
Sweden’s economy has performed better than other nations, although it still shrank 8.6 per cent between April and June, as exports and consumer spending dropped. In contrast, the UK’s economy shrank 20.4 per cent during the same period. However, the Vetenskapsforum argue that protecting the economy through Tegnell’s holistic approach has come at a terrible cost. As of October 21, Sweden stood 15th on the grim global ranking list of Covid-19 deaths per capita, and fifth in Europe, below only Belgium, Italy, Spain, and UK. Its tally of 581 deaths per million people is many times that of Germany, Norway, Denmark and Finland.
The impact has been most severe in the elderly. Statistics show that 89 per cent of Sweden’s 5,929 Covid-19 deaths so far have been over 69. During the first wave, the virus wreaked havoc in nursing homes, where nearly 1,000 people died in a matter of weeks.
Even more worrying, evidence has emerged that many sick elderly patients were effectively automatically denied access to treatment, to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. One March 17 FHM directive to Stockholm hospitals stated any patients over 80 or with a body mass index above 40 should not be admitted to intensive care, because they were less likely to recover. Other reports describe sick care home residents being administered a palliative cocktail of morphine and midazolam, because the homes were not equipped to administer oxygen, something some doctors have described as ‘active euthanasia.’
“The government didn’t protect the most vulnerable members of society,” says Ewing. “People were triaged out of healthcare and given ‘No Hospital’ notes on their journals, before they got sick. And this was not only for patients who were suspected of having Covid-19. A person who got a urinary tract infection and required hospitalisation, for example for IV antibiotics or fluids, would not get that care either. They received palliative medicine instead.”
While much of Europe locked-down, Sweden went with a different plan, but the data suggests that the country's relaxed approach didn't work
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist and the architect of the national response, has described the decision to keep society open as a holistic view of public health, aiming to balance the risk of the virus with avoiding the long-term consequences of closing schools and businesses. It is a popular view among many Swedes.
“In one way, I believe the Swedish strategy has been advantageous because of its clear focus to keep society working and keep children at school,” says Jonas Ludvigsson, an epidemiologist at the Karolinska Institute. “Learning is important for future health. And with a crashing economy, there will not only be less money for healthcare, but budget cuts which means there will be less money to help the teenagers with drug problems, single mums with small children. How much would that affect their health in the long term?”
Sweden’s economy has performed better than other nations, although it still shrank 8.6 per cent between April and June, as exports and consumer spending dropped. In contrast, the UK’s economy shrank 20.4 per cent during the same period. However, the Vetenskapsforum argue that protecting the economy through Tegnell’s holistic approach has come at a terrible cost. As of October 21, Sweden stood 15th on the grim global ranking list of Covid-19 deaths per capita, and fifth in Europe, below only Belgium, Italy, Spain, and UK. Its tally of 581 deaths per million people is many times that of Germany, Norway, Denmark and Finland.
The impact has been most severe in the elderly. Statistics show that 89 per cent of Sweden’s 5,929 Covid-19 deaths so far have been over 69. During the first wave, the virus wreaked havoc in nursing homes, where nearly 1,000 people died in a matter of weeks.
Even more worrying, evidence has emerged that many sick elderly patients were effectively automatically denied access to treatment, to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. One March 17 FHM directive to Stockholm hospitals stated any patients over 80 or with a body mass index above 40 should not be admitted to intensive care, because they were less likely to recover. Other reports describe sick care home residents being administered a palliative cocktail of morphine and midazolam, because the homes were not equipped to administer oxygen, something some doctors have described as ‘active euthanasia.’
“The government didn’t protect the most vulnerable members of society,” says Ewing. “People were triaged out of healthcare and given ‘No Hospital’ notes on their journals, before they got sick. And this was not only for patients who were suspected of having Covid-19. A person who got a urinary tract infection and required hospitalisation, for example for IV antibiotics or fluids, would not get that care either. They received palliative medicine instead.”
Are you voluntarily pursuing herd mentality and trying to catch the virus on purpose?
Sounds like it worked better to me. I’d like to hear the numbers that fell into poverty there vs other places. We’ve had 8 million drop into poverty since May. The long term physical and mental health consequences of that are staggering. The media is only beginning to pick up on the attendant health crisis closings have given rise to. They also rarely report on experts and leaders opinions on world poverty figures from closings. The great barrington declaration makes so much more sense than these absurd lockdowns that are pushed and the media’s endless narrative. I didn’t like what biden had to say about lockdowns either. Absolutely frightening.
Anyway let’s hope a vaccine reaches the finish line by Jan
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No. You need to mandate masks and set up social distancing measures. New York:
New Yorkers are now required to cover their faces in public, but the governor's executive order overlooks a penal code that says wearing masks counts as loitering
It's illegal to congregate in public places with others who have facial coverings, except at masquerades and entertainment events, the statute says.
www.businessinsider.com
Herd immunity will never work in the States.
The healthcare system lives on the edge since its made/run a for-profit system -- unlike the universal healthcare system of Sweden which is built for excess capacity.
The capacity is razor-thin and with herd immunity, the system will be overwhelmed and collapse. (And a critical success factor for us here in Singapore, Taiwan, Korea. I think at our case peak numbers, our ICU capacity was running at like 12% max according to my information within the MOH)
Then the mortality rates will be disproportional of what it currently is, just like what happened in Italy.
Mandate social distancing and masking -- it can be done as in New York State by Cuomo -- who I saw in an interview said ''I take full responsibility'' and the state overrides the various counties in the state of New York. Obviously, you cant implement this until you do a series of public health communication programmes.
you have to view this like coh said. this is a health issue which is a consideration within a broader policy consideration. the media and many dems have viewed this solely as a health issue without regard to what will be over ten million in poverty over this pandemic that has a 99.8 percent survival rate (or higher given those untested walking around) here in the states for a significant portion of the population. the greater barrington whatever is spot on on in their approach. trump's answer last night was far better than biden's imo. there is no justification for lockdowns at this point. zero. the cure is worse than the disease. mandate mask and social distancing at local levels as they're the only ones with authority to do so and no more lockdowns.No. You need to mandate masks and set up social distancing measures. New York:
New Yorkers are now required to cover their faces in public, but the governor's executive order overlooks a penal code that says wearing masks counts as loitering
It's illegal to congregate in public places with others who have facial coverings, except at masquerades and entertainment events, the statute says.
Herd immunity will never work in the States.
The healthcare system lives on the edge since its made/run a for-profit system -- unlike the universal healthcare system of Sweden which is built for excess capacity.
The capacity is razor-thin and with herd immunity, the system will be overwhelmed and collapse. (And a critical success factor for us here in Singapore, Taiwan, Korea. I think at our case peak numbers, our ICU capacity was running at like 12% max according to my information within the MOH)
Then the mortality rates will be disproportional of what it currently is, just like what happened in Italy.
Mandate social distancing and masking -- it can be done as in New York State by Cuomo -- who I saw in an interview said ''I take full responsibility'' and the state overrides the various counties in the state of New York. Obviously, you cant implement this until you do a series of public health communication programmes.
ive heard as many as 4 million small businesses could be lost by the end of the year. the consequences and repercussions of that on americans is staggering. there are millions the stimulus bills do not touch as evidenced by those numbers. use stimulous money to expand hospital beds. do more triage. but again the cure is worse than the virus when it comes to shutdowns. the endless hotspot reporting should subside with more reporting on how badly american kids and adults are doing as a result of closings.
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Firstly I don't know how you came up with a 0.2% mortality rate. It's well over 2% in my calculation. (225k deaths by 8million cases)
Secondly, it's just not the death that's an issue -- the long covid phenomenon is an issue whereby people are suffering long term effects of Covid -- or even the possibility of re-infection when then opens up a whole new calculus.
Finally, going back to my original statement -- a critical success factor is to ensure that the healthcare infra is kept within its safe capacity. When you go with herd immunity, there is absolutely no control of where the infection growth will be, both at the societal/demographics and geographical distribution.
The death rate will be politically untenable and once you start doing down this road, it's even worse trying to recapture some level of control.
Political courage and accountability is required. It starts with that.
nonsense. 8 million in poverty and kids out of school are long term effects of covid.
survival rates: 0-19 99.99%
20-49 99.98%
50-69 99.5%
you are in the camp that incessantly post about one side of the ledger without regard to the impact covid is having on every other aspect of society including deleterious health effects from suicides to postponing regular screenings to poverty related illness. you have tunnel vision on this brother. governing requires a broader approach. igw is right. if a vaccine isn't in the offing we need to isolate the elderly/vulnerable and get on with life. the cure is far worse than the disease at htis point. mask up, social distance and get on with it. no more closings. again 4 million businesses lost.
The world body also said in a risk report that nearly 369 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition have now been forced to look elsewhere.
“We must act now on each of these threats to our children,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Leaders must do everything in their power to cushion the impact of the pandemic. What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind.”
The new coronavirus, which causes the respiratory illness COVID-19, first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year. So far it has infected more than 2 million people - killing some 138,000 - in 213 countries and territories, according to a Reuters tally.
Compared with adults, children infected with the coronavirus are less likely to have symptoms and more likely to have a mild illness, U.S. and Chinese studies have found.
But the U.N. report warned that “economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in an hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020, reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year.”
With businesses shut down and more than a billion people told to stay home to avoid spreading the virus, the International Monetary Fund has predicted the world would this year suffer its steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Which is cheaper? Herd immunity or the states mandating masking/social distancing?
i edited my post to show what the UN had to stay about closings. i'm all for mandating masks and social distancing, but remember that can only be done at the local level. i'm vehemently against closings in any form at this point. again read what the UN wrote in my post above/below.
we don't hear about the great barrington declaration or what the UN is saying. instead our media incessantly writes about new cases and it shapes the dialogue and politicians desire for lockdowns and it's poorly considered
Nobody wants a shutdown. But how do you avoid one? Certainly, herd immunity isn't plausible. There is a middle way.
I mentioned earlier -- its political. Cuomo passed a law that said he would be responsible for the management of the pandemic within the state of New York. And that included mandatory masking in public and social distancing measures.
You have a republican governor in MO. (Btw I have lived in both MO and KS in the past.) KS is a basketcase now.
Maybe your hope is that it gets bad enough or he grows a pair and decides to take responsibility and govern? Look at what Cuomo did.
no, i'm old.
nor do i encourage it for those who wish not to purse it for any reason.
that said, we all have to face the reality that we all may get it sooner or later, even with some level of vaccine.
i realize some of my posts are long and tedious, (not everything can be laid out in a few words), but if you don't read my posts though, don't reply to them.
that said, for those not locked down, it currently looks a lot like a good percentage, (a herd immunity level percent among the currently not locked down), are going to acquire it through spread before a vaccine ever reaches them.
if numbers show that is the case, then are we better off dragging that out for another year or more, or just letting it happen in 2 to 4 months while the "at risk" lock down in the mean time till new infections go to near zero.
as for deaths, the whole key to bringing down deaths is isolating the at risk population from everybody else in the mean time.
there is no totally safe way for old people to interact with young people today.
thinking there is contributes to the high death rate.
being even most older people survive it if infected, many older people would rather risk it than lock down, and that's their decision.
if we could reduce the time period they need to lock down from indefinitely and possible another year or 2 or 3, to only a few months, perhaps more olders would play it safer in the mean time.
or perhaps not.
on a side note, i thought i may have gotten bit last March, but that was before testing was available at all to the general public.
since i wasn't that bad at the time, i was kinda hoping i had gotten bit..
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No. You need to mandate masks and set up social distancing measures. New York:
New Yorkers are now required to cover their faces in public, but the governor's executive order overlooks a penal code that says wearing masks counts as loitering
It's illegal to congregate in public places with others who have facial coverings, except at masquerades and entertainment events, the statute says.
Herd immunity will never work in the States.
The healthcare system lives on the edge since its made/run a for-profit system -- unlike the universal healthcare system of Sweden which is built for excess capacity.
The capacity is razor-thin and with herd immunity, the system will be overwhelmed and collapse. (And a critical success factor for us here in Singapore, Taiwan, Korea. I think at our case peak numbers, our ICU capacity was running at like 12% max according to my information within the MOH)
Then the mortality rates will be disproportional of what it currently is, just like what happened in Italy.
Mandate social distancing and masking -- it can be done as in New York State by Cuomo -- who I saw in an interview said ''I take full responsibility'' and the state overrides the various counties in the state of New York. Obviously, you cant implement this until you do a series of public health communication programmes.
you can say herd immunity will never work a million times, but that doesn't make it so.
reality is, herd immunity is the only thing that can work, be the immunity by vaccine or spread.
and i'll assume herd immunity and our bodies learning better how to fight it after the initial infection, is what has eventually stopped most pandemics over time
looking at the daily numbers, it seems like the non locked down population has a good chance of reaching some level of herd immunity before a vaccine reaches them, especially considering the youngers will be the last to be vaccinated, if and when a vaccine is perfected.
that said, for a vaccine to work even if developed, if half or more won't take it as polls suggest, then that's a real catch 22.
i'm all for pursuing a vaccine and more effective remedies full steam ahead, but we need to discussing other strategies besides masks and distancing in the mean time, especially since many just aren't willing to mask and distance even now, and that "not willing" percent is only going to grow with each passing month.
Herd immunity only "works" if it comes from a vaccine. Herd immunity from natural spread is just another way of saying the pandemic has run its course. There's no strategy in that. It just means we lost our fight against the disease. Nothing more.
I don't know why this simple concept is so difficult for some of you to understand.
When we debate closing things down, do we have the same terminology in mind? Very few people want things closed.
But social distancing alone is tantamount to closing some things down. Restaurants require 100% capacity to be profitable. If they cannot pack Friday and Saturday nights, they are screwed. Same for movie theaters. Other industries are similarly impacted.
Even if government does not limit social distancing, if just the 40% high risk stay home, they are still screwed. So are we going to force people to go to packed restaurants?
We know our pods leak. Some of the health pros discuss telling their kids not to cone home for Thanksgiving a Christmas. We know that is not going to be the standard reaction. Does anyone here believe a majority of American families are going to totally isolate over the holidays?
The problem is that in theory the disease is about to get worse. We are losing sunlight, known to weaken the virus. We are also losing heat and humidity which also weaken the virus:
The original idea was to stop hospital overload, that still sounds reasonable to me. The problem is hospital load lags infections by about two weeks. Imagine driving a car whose breaks do not work for two seconds after you press them. It would change how you drive.
Wisconsin has opened up their emergency field hospital. America has had a shortage of medical personnel. As we open up emergency facilities like these, where are the workers going to come from?
But social distancing alone is tantamount to closing some things down. Restaurants require 100% capacity to be profitable. If they cannot pack Friday and Saturday nights, they are screwed. Same for movie theaters. Other industries are similarly impacted.
Even if government does not limit social distancing, if just the 40% high risk stay home, they are still screwed. So are we going to force people to go to packed restaurants?
We know our pods leak. Some of the health pros discuss telling their kids not to cone home for Thanksgiving a Christmas. We know that is not going to be the standard reaction. Does anyone here believe a majority of American families are going to totally isolate over the holidays?
The problem is that in theory the disease is about to get worse. We are losing sunlight, known to weaken the virus. We are also losing heat and humidity which also weaken the virus:
Our findings revealed that temperature and relative humidity were both negatively related to daily new cases and deaths. A 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 3.08% (95% CI: 1.53%, 4.63%) reduction in daily new cases and a 1.19% (95% CI: 0.44%, 1.95%) reduction in daily new deaths, whereas a 1% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 0.85% (95% CI: 0.51%, 1.19%) reduction in daily new cases and a 0.51% (95% CI: 0.34%, 0.67%) reduction in daily new deaths. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720325687
Below is a story about Utah. They have begun postponing elective surgeries, one heart attack victim was unable to get care, and healthcare workers are suffering burn out. And if people do not do better at masking and social distancing, it is going to get worse with less sun, less heat, and less humidity. https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/23/utah-sets-new-single-day/The original idea was to stop hospital overload, that still sounds reasonable to me. The problem is hospital load lags infections by about two weeks. Imagine driving a car whose breaks do not work for two seconds after you press them. It would change how you drive.
Wisconsin has opened up their emergency field hospital. America has had a shortage of medical personnel. As we open up emergency facilities like these, where are the workers going to come from?
Its a strange strain of people running within whats left of the Republican party.
They wont believe the experts, -- or not believe in anything or threats unless it happens to them personally -- like a Channey (and LBGT when his daughter came out of the closet) and then Chris Christie (and his recent conversion.)
A general distrust of others who are outside their value system or folks with higher knowledge in a particular subject matter?
And yet, they all claim to be big believers of some deity and a book that was written based on hearsay some 40 years after the fella passed away.
All with no proof, unlike science.
Anyway getting back to the herd immunity -- I don't think anyone can comprehend the consequences of such an approach.
I am the only person here in the WC which is still in a green zone -- where life has gone back to normal, since June -- sorry Zizkov. We have the size of the population of Indiana living in close quarters -- Singapore's total population is that of Indiana but all within the confines/area a tad larger than Indianapolis. Its like NYC.
The chances of Covid wildfire spreading is much higher under such conditions than say sparser cities or rural areas.
And yet there was two simple rules enforced -- social distancing and mandatory masking -- which NY has enforced. (Its embarrassing that I had to send masks to my sisters still.)
But like the GOP leaders, unless the Covid shit happens to them, they may not be so prepared to make masks mandatory.
So my non-Herd Immunity proposals are:
1) that you intentionally infect every single Republican leadership/governor first so that they learn about the consequences of Covid and hopefully they will be more empathetic.
2) Take a page from Cuomo's book -- pass a law that makes it mandatory. Grow a pair and take some political responsibility.
And show some feckin' leadership.
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That's a concern in the UK that they anticipate spikes in various diseases/deaths after Covid has run its course. People have not gone for their regular checkups/followups -- from breast cancer checks to delayed surgeries.
I have been thinking that a Democratic President and Congress should pass a law stripping from the Supreme Court the power to hear pandemic related appeals unless they meet in person, with an audience.
Hasn't Trump boasted about how many lives he saved? If you go with herd immunity those lives he potentially saved are now back on the chopping block aren't they? I believe he said his actions saved the lives of two million people. Herd immunity is just throwing your hands up in the air and claiming a Tony Soprano, "what are you going to do".
Marv to answer your question I consider things open now. Limited capacity etc is still open. By lockdown I mean last March. Stay home orders and only essential businessesNo. You need to mandate masks and set up social distancing measures. New York:
New Yorkers are now required to cover their faces in public, but the governor's executive order overlooks a penal code that says wearing masks counts as loitering
It's illegal to congregate in public places with others who have facial coverings, except at masquerades and entertainment events, the statute says.
Herd immunity will never work in the States.
The healthcare system lives on the edge since its made/run a for-profit system -- unlike the universal healthcare system of Sweden which is built for excess capacity.
The capacity is razor-thin and with herd immunity, the system will be overwhelmed and collapse. (And a critical success factor for us here in Singapore, Taiwan, Korea. I think at our case peak numbers, our ICU capacity was running at like 12% max according to my information within the MOH)
Then the mortality rates will be disproportional of what it currently is, just like what happened in Italy.
Mandate social distancing and masking -- it can be done as in New York State by Cuomo -- who I saw in an interview said ''I take full responsibility'' and the state overrides the various counties in the state of New York. Obviously, you cant implement this until you do a series of public health communication programmes.
I think that is the answer most sane people accept. I am not sure that is what Atlas wants, nor Trump.
For Atlas, its certainly not meeting the Hippocratic Oath he took many years ago.
How any legit physician can propose allowing people to get infected and potentially die is beyond me. He should be struck off and never ever be allowed to practise.
Totally agree re atlas and trump. But many of us fear Biden is the other side of that coin and open to going back to last March. I trust we will see that with Chicago shortly. I think the consequence of that nationwide is greater than the virus
Biden is not going to do that either but will follow the guidelines of our experts and not some Fox News expert who hasn't practiced medicine in ten years.
but bill that's a blessing and a curse. the guidelines of medical experts will always be limited to what's best to halt the virus. that's not policy. policy has to contemplate broader considerations. follow the science; follow the experts. that's not accurate. good policy is to consider their suggestions. doctors are exceptionally conservative people and the worst business people i've ever encountered. they will not consider the mental health consequences; the impact of kids at home; 8 million in poverty; 4 million businesses lost and all that attends. they will look at the problem from a single angle: how to halt the virus. and that's why "follow the guidelines of our experts" isn't sound counsel. doctors/experts should be A factor in determining policy. they should not determine policy
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Biden is enough of a political animal he won't be controlled by the science exclusively but he'll listen more than Trump. I actually think Trump would have done things differently if it wasn't an election year where almost everything he did was based upon the economy.
i hope you're right. the manufacturing owners i deal with weekly are afraid to death of the dems and more shutdowns. as for trump his behavior on masks is beyond comprehension in its stupidity. and i belabor the shit out of this but our citizenry aren't the brightest either. i'm beginning to see more and more people in my own county abandoning masks. we were doing fantastic and now more and more i see randoms maskless inside starbucks and other stores. i just don't get it.
Thats the stupidity of people -- same thing happened in Europe. They seem to think that the 2-3 months lockdown is the cure to the pandemic or some parental punishment.
So right after the re-opening, they slowly slipped back into poor discipline or the masks were not mandatory.
The immunologist and infectious disease experts always knew back in March/April that there was one shot at this. Kill it before the Fall or the Flu/Winter season will make be a nightmare.
That's why when masking & social distancing -- tracing program weren't implemented nationally, you had no chance in hell not to get the 2nd Wave, --- and one that's expected to be worse than the 1st for the obvious reasons.
Responsibility? Cuomo and Newsome, et al, are gambling on a Biden win and a big payday from Nancy when the election is over.
Stopping cases is a fools errand. It is estimated that well over 50% of the Japanese population has been infected. Name a group more disciplined where masks and distancing is concerned? The answer is continuing to improve treatments and mitigation for the highly identifiable high-risk populations.
