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Those CDC numbers

Marvin the Martian

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So over the weekend, numbers released from the CDC were interpreted to mean that actual COVID deaths were under 10,000.

Of course those numbers were less than accurate. If someone had COVID and diabetes and the COVID caused respiratory distress, all three are listed. It does not mean the diabetes really got them, or some unknown respiratory distress came out of nowhere.

 
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It does mean that the death rate for Covid without any other underlying medical issues, is very low. It means that if you are healthy your chances of dying from Covid seem to be very low, which is a good thing isn't it?
 
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It does mean that the death rate for Covid without any other underlying medical issues, is very low. It means that if you are healthy your chances of dying from Covid seem to be very low, which is a good thing isn't it?

Yes, that is good. But with roughly 40% of Americans carrying at least one risk factor is doesn't necessarily mean we can pretend it is no different than the common cold.
 
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Yes, that is good. But with roughly 40% of Americans carrying at least one risk factor is doesn't necessarily mean we can pretend it is no different than the common cold.

True, but we don't have to say that sending kids to school is sending them to their death, like I have seen and read many times. From what I read the average number of underlying issues was 2.6 per person. Covid is dangerous to those that have issues, that's clear. Just think that we need to stop fear mongering about and ignoring practical things to do to keep high risk people safer. It's time to move past all the hype and rhetoric and get practical.
 
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True, but we don't have to say that sending kids to school is sending them to their death, like I have seen and read many times. From what I read the average number of underlying issues was 2.6 per person. Covid is dangerous to those that have issues, that's clear. Just think that we need to stop fear mongering about and ignoring practical things to do to keep high risk people safer. It's time to move past all the hype and rhetoric and get practical.
I think we should treat it like the flu. We do cancel schools because of flu outbreaks. So if SARS-COV-2 is rampant in a community, it makes sense to keep kids away from school.
 
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Yes, that is good. But with roughly 40% of Americans carrying at least one risk factor is doesn't necessarily mean we can pretend it is no different than the common cold.

How much more of an issue is COVID vs. influenza for people with underlying conditions? I'm sure it is worse, I'm just wondering how much so. Did a quick scan for a meta analysis with no luck.
 
True, but we don't have to say that sending kids to school is sending them to their death, like I have seen and read many times. From what I read the average number of underlying issues was 2.6 per person. Covid is dangerous to those that have issues, that's clear. Just think that we need to stop fear mongering about and ignoring practical things to do to keep high risk people safer. It's time to move past all the hype and rhetoric and get practical.

I don't think the argument is that sending kids to school is sending them to their deaths...I think the issue is all the adults in the building. Sort of hard to teach the kids when the teachers/administrators/secretaries/custodians/lunch providers/bus drivers/etc. are home sick.
 
I don't think the argument is that sending kids to school is sending them to their deaths...I think the issue is all the adults in the building. Sort of hard to teach the kids when the teachers/administrators/secretaries/custodians/lunch providers/bus drivers/etc. are home sick.

For once we agree. The risk is less so to the kids and more to the adults in the school AND the adults they interact with at home (parents, grandparents, etc.). That being said, I'm not necessarily an opponent of in-person school, but most public schools seem ill-equipped to deal with the necessary safety measures and precautions.
 
And then there is that nuisance statistic about over 900 healthcare workers in the United States dying so far from covid-19.
I don't think the argument is that sending kids to school is sending them to their deaths...I think the issue is all the adults in the building. Sort of hard to teach the kids when the teachers/administrators/secretaries/custodians/lunch providers/bus drivers/etc. are home sick.
Over 900 healthcare workers have died in the United States so far from covid-19. Essential educational workers are afraid of dying. And then there is that nuisance statistic about long-term heart & lung damage.
 
How much more of an issue is COVID vs. influenza for people with underlying conditions? I'm sure it is worse, I'm just wondering how much so. Did a quick scan for a meta analysis with no luck.

I do not know the answer to your question, but this is interesting in comparing the two:

From 2013-14 to 2018-19, the CDC reported yearly estimates of influenza deaths ranging from 23,000-61,000. However, the number of counted influenza deaths during those 2 seasons was 3448 and 15,620, respectively.​
It would be more accurate to compare weekly counts of COVID-19 deaths to weekly counts of seasonal influenza deaths, the authors said, due to COVID-19 fatalities being counted and reported directly instead of estimated.​
By the numbers, according to the paper:​
  • There were 15,455 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week ending April 21, 2020.
    • There were 14,478 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week prior.
    • There were 351 flu deaths during the peak week (week 11 of 2016) of the flu season in 2015-16.
    • There were 1626 flu deaths during the peak week (week 3 of 2018) of the flu season in 2018-19.
 
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For once we agree. The risk is less so to the kids and more to the adults in the school AND the adults they interact with at home (parents, grandparents, etc.). That being said, I'm not necessarily an opponent of in-person school, but most public schools seem ill-equipped to deal with the necessary safety measures and precautions.
To the statement that schools seem ill-equipped...the thing is, schools are structured after the factory model, and therefore, most procedures and settings are set up to get as many kids as possible through a classroom, hallway, lunchroom, bus, etc. as efficiently as they can. Schools are the exact opposite of social distancing. Schools are all about servicing as many kids as feasible as economically as the building/time constraints allow. All of this exists in long-term, indoor settings cooled and heated by the dreaded HVAC. And that's all without taking into consideration that kids tend to be very social at all levels.
So, you either have an elementary teacher in a room with 25 kids all day, or a secondary teacher in a room with 6 sets of 25 kids for 50 minutes a day. And as you said, not only are the teachers at risk, but the kids, who may have it, but will be fine, are taking those little germs home with them to their families.
 
To the statement that schools seem ill-equipped...the thing is, schools are structured after the factory model, and therefore, most procedures and settings are set up to get as many kids as possible through a classroom, hallway, lunchroom, bus, etc. as efficiently as possible. Schools are the exact opposite of social distancing. Schools are all about servicing as many kids as possible as economically as possible. All of this exists in long-term, indoor settings cooled and heated by the dreaded HVAC settings. And that's all without taking into consideration that kids tend to be very social at all levels.
So, you either have an elementary teacher in a room with 25 kids all day, or a secondary teacher in a room with 6 sets of 25 kids for 50 minutes a day. And as you said, not only are the teachers at risk, but the kids, who may have it, but will be fine, are taking those little germs home with them to their families.

I'm more talking about the flexibility, nimbleness, funding and mentality to implement these significant changes. Some of this is is impossible based on current structural layouts.

My SIL/BIL live in a college town, similar to Btown with an intelligent local community. They grew up in the suburban public school system, like all of our families and naturally enrolled their kids in public schools (again, probably on par with Btown, maybe slightly better).

COVID hit and their district refused to provide video-based remote learning because it was deemed "inequitable". Now, I think everyone can acknowledge that there are certain to be people that have deficiencies in hardware (laptops, tablets, etc.) and access (high-speed internet, etc.). So they spent the last three months of classes doing remote learning without any teacher (professional) interaction. Parents were responsible for picking up work for each week, teaching their children and then helping them with their deliverables.

As the summer went on, the public school district did nothing to address or prepare for in-person learning, so that it could work in a safe manner. Meanwhile, a local private school advertised some additional capacity and was profoundly forward-thinking about their replacement of the HVAC system, additional ventilation mechanisms, dividers between desks, sanitation systems, bathroom policies, distancing procedures, etc., so my nephews got placed into a new school system away from most of their friends.

Now, as schools opened last week, my nephews are back at school in a much different, but effective way. Meanwhile, the public district is in disarray and still relying upon parents essentially home schooling their kids using teacher prepared lessons, without the use of modern technology. In 2020.
 
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I'm more talking about the flexibility, nimbleness, funding and mentality to implement these significant changes. Some of this is is impossible based on current structural layouts.

My SIL/BIL live in a college town, similar to Btown with an intelligent local community. They grew up in the suburban public school system, like all of our families and naturally enrolled their kids in public schools (again, probably on par with Btown, maybe slightly better).

COVID hit and their district refused to provide video-based remote learning because it was deemed "inequitable". Now, I think everyone can acknowledge that there are certain to be people that have deficiencies in hardware (laptops, tablets, etc.) and access (high-speed internet, etc.). So they spent the last three months of classes doing remote learning without any teacher (professional) interaction. Parents were responsible for picking up work for each week, teaching their children and then helping them with their deliverables.

As the summer went on, the public school district did nothing to address or prepare for in-person learning, so that it could work in a safe manner. Meanwhile, a local private school advertised some additional capacity and was profoundly forward-thinking about their replacement of the HVAC system, additional ventilation mechanisms, dividers between desks, sanitation systems, bathroom policies, distancing procedures, etc., so my nephews got placed into a new school system away from most of their friends.

Now, as schools opened last week, my nephews are back at school in a much different, but effective way. Meanwhile, the public district is in disarray and still relying upon parents essentially home schooling their kids using teacher prepared lessons, without the use of modern technology. In 2020.

That seems like severe dereliction of duty in your SIL/BIL's school district as you describe it. FWIW, LAUSD has been pretty heroic here in Los Angeles IMHO. They have electronic devices available to any child in the entire district, have made arrangements for any child who doesn't have internet access to have it provided for them, and have set up regional pickup centers across the district for safe pickup of meals for families in need. Businesses in the city have been extremely supportive of the education system in L.A. and, in turn, there has been a large groundswell of grassroots support for local businesses that are struggling because of the city's "Safer at Home" measures. None of it is perfect, but the effort has been monumental and I've been extremely impressed by the leadership shown at multiple levels in the city. Thankfully, our numbers are trending down substantially and below the major benchmarks, so hopefully it is all working.
 
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That seems like severe dereliction of duty in your SIL/BIL's school district as you describe it. FWIW, LAUSD has been pretty heroic here in Los Angeles IMHO. They have electronic devices available to any child in the entire district, have made arrangements for any child who doesn't have internet access to have it provided for them, and have set up regional pickup centers across the district for safe pickup of meals for families in need. Businesses in the city have been extremely supportive of the education system in L.A. and, in turn, there has been a large groundswell of grassroots support for local businesses that are struggling because of the city's "Safer at Home" measures. None of it is perfect, but the effort has been monumental and I've been extremely impressed by the leadership shown at multiple levels in the city. Thankfully, our numbers are trending down substantially and below the major benchmarks, so hopefully it is all working.
Here in Indy, most districts have spent a shit ton of money on both at home learning devices for kids (chromebooks/ipads/wi-fi), and on-site protection (masks, hand sanitizer, temperature check stations, floor stickers, sneeze guards, etc), to be ready for at home, on site, or hybrid situations.
 
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Speaking of numbers, it looks like Dr. Death has Trump's ear.


Read the article. Too much for me to properly excerpt.
Well, I think the secret to lowering our numbers is to push for herd immunity and to cease testing. We'll have this thing licked by November 3rd easily.
 
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My county obtained 172,000 laptop computers, with the goal of every child K-12 having one, and tens of thousands of portable wireless internet devices / hotspots for students, in a deal with comcast.
 
My county obtained 172,000 laptop computers, with the goal of every child K-12 having one, and tens of thousands of portable wireless internet devices / hotspots for students, in a deal with comcast.
Gotta give Google credit, they broke the back of the Apple/MSFT duopoly with Chromebooks and Chrome OS. These kids will be locked into that ecosystem for years.
 
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You also have the NYT now saying that the vast majority of "positive" tests may not, in fact be positive (or at the very least, carry an insignificant amount of the virus). The attached article discusses the level of sensitivity being too high, and that most positive cases to not carry a high enough viral load for transmission. The question then becomes whether these results should be classified as positive.

 
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As to the thread topic....

You can die from a gun shot wound and the death certificate may also say it was from blood loss.
You can die from a car accident and the death certificate may also say it was from head trauma.
You can die from AIDS and the death certificate may also say it was from pneumonia.
You can die from COVID-19 and the death certificate may also say it was from pneumonia, multiple organ failure, or a heart attack.
-----
Both are recorded on the death certificate. You cannot separate the two, because without the former, the latter would not have happened, at least NOW. This non-news is silly.

My cousin recently retired after a long career as an MD. He summed it up:

As a primary care internal medicine physician for about 40 years I filled out many death certificates. My patients were mostly over age 60. The specific cause of death is listed first. At the bottom of the certificate we list all underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, COPD, infection, etc. These are the comorbidities, which in the case of COVID19 are now well known. So this "news" is that only a small number of people dying of COVID19 appear to have no known comorbidities. Or, more likely, a small number of doctors were not following instructions, since all those dying of COVID19 are very likely to be displaying outcomes the disease that ought to be noted for the record, such as respiratory failure or clotting disorders, and in fact may have been the proximal cause of death by COVID19.
 
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As to the thread topic....

You can die from a gun shot wound and the death certificate may also say it was from blood loss.
You can die from a car accident and the death certificate may also say it was from head trauma.
You can die from AIDS and the death certificate may also say it was from pneumonia.
You can die from COVID-19 and the death certificate may also say it was from pneumonia, multiple organ failure, or a heart attack.
-----
Both are recorded on the death certificate. You cannot separate the two, because without the former, the latter would not have happened, at least NOW. This non-news is silly.

My cousin recently retired after a long career as an MD. He summed it up:

As a primary care internal medicine physician for about 40 years I filled out many death certificates. My patients were mostly over age 60. The specific cause of death is listed first. At the bottom of the certificate we list all underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, COPD, infection, etc. These are the comorbidities, which in the case of COVID19 are now well known. So this "news" is that only a small number of people dying of COVID19 appear to have no known comorbidities. Or, more likely, a small number of doctors were not following instructions, since all those dying of COVID19 are very likely to be displaying outcomes the disease that ought to be noted for the record, such as respiratory failure or clotting disorders, and in fact may have been the proximal cause of death by COVID19.
Ask Dr. Cousin if he ever heard of a car accident fatality, who also happened to have cancer, having cancer listed as COD.
 
Ask Dr. Cousin if he ever heard of a car accident fatality, who also happened to have cancer, having cancer listed as COD.

Suppose someone had the flu and drank nyquil before giving up and driving themselves to the hospital. They crash and die. Is flu partly to blame.

But just because a person in a car wreck has COVID listed, that does not mean this has happened 170,000 times.
 
As to the thread topic....

You can die from a gun shot wound and the death certificate may also say it was from blood loss.
You can die from a car accident and the death certificate may also say it was from head trauma.
You can die from AIDS and the death certificate may also say it was from pneumonia.
You can die from COVID-19 and the death certificate may also say it was from pneumonia, multiple organ failure, or a heart attack.
-----
Both are recorded on the death certificate. You cannot separate the two, because without the former, the latter would not have happened, at least NOW. This non-news is silly.

My cousin recently retired after a long career as an MD. He summed it up:

As a primary care internal medicine physician for about 40 years I filled out many death certificates. My patients were mostly over age 60. The specific cause of death is listed first. At the bottom of the certificate we list all underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, COPD, infection, etc. These are the comorbidities, which in the case of COVID19 are now well known. So this "news" is that only a small number of people dying of COVID19 appear to have no known comorbidities. Or, more likely, a small number of doctors were not following instructions, since all those dying of COVID19 are very likely to be displaying outcomes the disease that ought to be noted for the record, such as respiratory failure or clotting disorders, and in fact may have been the proximal cause of death by COVID19.
How the deaths are categorized is interesting and probably makes a great topic to argue over. But at the end of the day we have an excess of deaths that fall outside the the bounds of statistical expectations. The total number of deaths vs deaths attributed to COVID-19 are off enough to indicate that COVID-19 deaths are being under counted, unless there is another unreported cause. To say that the numbers are bullshit because grandma died in car crash and the death certificate stated that COD was COVID-19 is a facile argument.
 
So over the weekend, numbers released from the CDC were interpreted to mean that actual COVID deaths were under 10,000.

Of course those numbers were less than accurate. If someone had COVID and diabetes and the COVID caused respiratory distress, all three are listed. It does not mean the diabetes really got them, or some unknown respiratory distress came out of nowhere.

Twitter has removed the Tweet that Trump retweeted and evidently was the source of all this idiocy.
 
Ask Dr. Cousin if he ever heard of a car accident fatality, who also happened to have cancer, having cancer listed as COD.
If you're going to make absurd claims then you should be prepared to back them up. You have evidence of someone dying in a car accident with Covid listed as their cause of death? If not, then STFU.
 
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Yeah, but what about the flu? Huh? Huh???
I know that you are joking, but that is EXACTLY what my cousin responded with on her facebook post that began with "the 6% covid scam"

My response was that flu deaths are calculated EXACTLY the same way, that only very rarely would "flu" be listed as the only condition relevant to death. In fact the proximal cause would be pneumonia, or organ failure, then a positive flu test noted as an underlying factor.

But, like any good Trumpette, I am sure that my cousin doesn't "get it" because the orange Lord said something else.
 
If you're going to make absurd claims then you should be prepared to back them up. You have evidence of someone dying in a car accident with Covid listed as their cause of death? If not, then STFU.
warning.....I am not advocating that this is some massive conspiracy, but yes, there have been several "questionable" situations that seem a little odd. Here is one:


When you hear explanations that COVID may have caused him to crash his motorcycle, thus being the COD, my BS meter goes up. I don't think this is widespread, but isolated cases like this one just gives red meat to some.
 
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If the bodies are piling up for the coroner like cord wood, I wouldn't be surprised if there were some paperwork errors and a wrong box was occasionally checked off in error on one of the antiquated sytems that most counties use to record deaths. It isn't part of some evil plot. It's people working double shifts to count up all of the bodies, when you are at a peak anyway. We seem to finally be over that here in south Florida, starting with local mask wearing ordinances and strict enforcement.
 
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warning.....I am not advocating that this is some massive conspiracy, but yes, there have been several "questionable" situations that seem a little odd. Here is one:


When you hear explanations that COVID may have caused him to crash his motorcycle, thus being the COD, my BS meter goes up. I don't think this is widespread, but isolated cases like this one just gives red meat to some.
There are financial and political incentives to list COVID19 as COD. There are plenty of examples like the motorcycle death.
 
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