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The election has changed.

The reality is the left and right don't have similar cultures or views for the country. Were not alike at all
Urban vs. Rural? White vs. Not White? Christian vs. Non-Christian?

I don't think the dividing line is politics or political philosophy. We're in a bubble on this board snarl. A group of people who pay attention to this shit more than 95% of the rest of the country. We see the dividing line as politics. I don't think it is. I would agree there are massive cultural differences but that they are mostly based on religion or geography.

The more the Federal government grows the more intense the fighting will be and less stability for the country.
"more"

What are we cutting to make it noticeably and meaningfully smaller. Beside the DoD, Medicare, SS? B/c those are third rails. Your concern is probably about the growing of the welfare state. I would agree except that I do honestly believe single payor health insurance is the only way to sustain the health of the nation's populace over the long term. It's also equitable in a way that doesn't require equality of outcomes. That would be growing the federal government (or more likley absorbing the health insruance industry in some regard).
 
Houses are out of reach
To be fair that dog was loose in the yard way before Trump or Biden. Sure, it accelerated but the free money (near 0% real insterest rates) epidemic since 2009 has been mostly to blame.
 
Vance, like trump, is historically unpopular.
Vance's net favorable rating of -16 points in his home region is larger than his -6 points on a national scale (28 percent favorable compared to 34 percent unfavorable).

CNN's senior political data reporter Harry Enten previously said that Vance was the least-liked non-incumbent vice presidential nominee following a party's convention going back to 1980, as well as the first to register an average net negative favorability rating.
For context, regardless of party, VP picks average a +18 favorability rating initially.
 
To be fair that dog was loose in the yard way before Trump or Biden. Sure, it accelerated but the free money (near 0% real insterest rates) epidemic since 2009 has been mostly to blame.
Prices skyrocketed tho. Part inflation. Part draconian remote work measures
 
I think her VP pick could be big for her. Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro are both sharp and would look great in contrast to the way Vance has stumbled out of the gate. He's unlikeable and has turned a significant subset of voters against him. Trump isn't liked by a lot of people and adding Vance didn't endear him to that crowd. The "I'm voting against Trump" crowd that came out in 2020 is getting re-energized by Harris being at the top of the ticket.
VP's don't matter. At best they're good for .4% in their home state if history holds. Why is this cycle different?
 
Prices skyrocketed tho. Part inflation. Part draconian remote work measures
B/c money was free.

Money not free anymore, prices are flatlining or falling in most areas (housing) even in Carmel-by-the-Corn.

Shit, it takes upwareds of 10 days now for a house to sell here instead of the usual 5
 
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B/c money was free.

Money not free anymore, prices are flatlining or falling in most areas (housing) even in Carmel-by-the-Corn.

Shit, it takes upwareds of 10 days now for a house to sell here instead of the usual 5
Supply and demand as well
 
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Trump continues to play to his base which he already has locked up. Harris has retrieved the 90% black vote for another cycle. She also has the women vote. The only women who don't support abortion for medical problems are religious and don't know any friends who have suffered a pregnancy that they want with a myriad of complications.
'retrieved the black vote'
'has the woman vote'
.....and whatever that last paragraph tries to say..likely.

Unsubstantiated nonsense.

You claim comma-la, only weeks from existing as the least consequential ViceP in history, has now achieved near iconic results in ten days?

The likes on this post made me laugh out loud...
 
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National polls are mostly irrelevant. Jimmy Carter had a substantial national lead over Reagan in September 1980. Hillary Clinton had a 12-point national lead over Trump three weeks before Election Day in 2016.

Also, do you seriously think she has anywhere near peaked? She will get bounces from the VP pick, the convention next month and at least one debate after Labor Day where she'll thrash Trump, assuming he isn't afraid to show up for a debate.

She is a fundraising machine. The campaign has raised $200 million since it began on July 21, with almost two-thirds from first-time donors. She had nearly 200,000 participants in a "White Dudes for Harris" Zoom last night that raised another $4 million on the spot.

She has a more extensive grassroots organization (number of field offices, number of staff and volunteers) in several key swing states than Trump. She has signed up over 175,000 new volunteers in eight days. Twenty-one mayors, including the Republican mayor of the state's third largest city, have endorsed her in the key state of Arizona (see below). She's got all the momentum and is, in sum, on a roll.

I believe that Harris, like Biden, will end up defeating Trump by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College.

Just wait until the Republican’s “Black Gals for Trump” Zoom tomorrow night and watch their coffers bulge like a high school boy’s EMB yet to be pissed away.
 
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I do wonder if this new MAGA base will be as reliable when Trump is gone. Some of the super fans will not feel this way about another candidate.
I have thought the same thing. Those that say a DeSantis or Haley would cruise to victory I think are fooling themselves.

Would they make the same inroads with Hispanics and black men (to the extent Trump has actually done that)? Not to mention working class whites?

Seems a tenuous thing to rely on. It will be interesting in 2028 to see to what extent this coalition is built around one man. Hillary thought she could rely on the 2012 Obama coalition in 2016, but the coalition is not the same or nearly as enthusiastic without Obama.
 
All this slicing and dicing and fixation on candidates. The truth is we are a very evenly divided country regardless on candidate. It took Biden being a literal walking corpse for Trump to open up a sizable lead on him.

This election will be close like the last two were. 10's of thousands of votes in a handful of states. And that would be true if the Republicans were running Reagan instead of Trump.
Definitely agree this election is going to be close. And you're probably right, it would be close no matter who was running.

My main point...I think...is that the sooner the main parties elect leaders that don't cause the other side of the aisle to lose their damn minds, AND cause large swaths of their own voters to rethink their own lifelong allegiances...the better. And yes, I think this is happening on BOTH sides of the aisle.

And my further point...I think Trump is singularly the MOST to blame for our current division. And there is basically zero chance for any common ground, any shift away from the gridlock, while he's the central leader of the GOP. Before Trump, we had ACTUAL leaders. I think there's a ton of revisionist history going on, from both sides, on the job Reagan, The Bush's, Clinton, and Obama did. Obviously tons on either side will disagree with many of their policy decisions...but all 5 of those guys were leaders. They all navigated our country through crisis well. None of them were perfect. Each of them had their own issues. Trump himself, and the crap the Dems have run out there to contend with him, all awful... In my simple brain, I just think if he were golfing at Mar a Lago, and DeSantis, or Haley, or Scott were running... we'd have had an open primary with the Dems, and maybe someone like Kelly, or Shaprio is running on the other side.

And when that happens, I think that will force the ridiculous, more extreme, factions of each party back to their shadows, where they all belong.
 
To be fair that dog was loose in the yard way before Trump or Biden. Sure, it accelerated but the free money (near 0% real insterest rates) epidemic since 2009 has been mostly to blame.

Theoretically, higher interest rates should bring the costs of buying homes down. Obviously other factors are keeping prices up, at least in the short run

Worst part is cost of housing allows renters to raise rents.

Blaming the guy in the Oval Office for inflation is a historical fact. It only shows there are good times and bad periods to be sitting there.

Easy to forget the economy has a life of its own beyond government influence.
 
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Theoretically, higher interest rates should bring the costs of buying homes down. Obviously other factors are keeping prices up, at least in the short run

Worst part is cost of housing allows renters to raise rents.

Blaming the guy in the Oval Office for inflation is a historical fact. It only shows there are good times and bad periods to be sitting there.

Easy to forget the economy has a life of its own beyond government influence.
Except we can trace policy and actions from local and fed gov and see the resultant spikes. This wasn’t coincidental. Remote work. Draconian lockdowns. Supply and demand. From houses to groceries
 
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I have thought the same thing. Those that say a DeSantis or Haley would cruise to victory I think are fooling themselves.

Would they make the same inroads with Hispanics and black men (to the extent Trump has actually done that)? Not to mention working class whites?

Seems a tenuous thing to rely on. It will be interesting in 2028 to see to what extent this coalition is built around one man. Hillary thought she could rely on the 2012 Obama coalition in 2016, but the coalition is not the same or nearly as enthusiastic without Obama.
The Trump adoration with the flags, signs, truck wraps, etc is certainly not like anything I’ve ever seen. I can’t imagine the Trump fans being like that with another R candidate.

However, a more normal R candidate brings back a bunch of more moderate Rs. Personally, I’m against almost all current progressive policies, but the MAGA populist policies don’t appeal to me either.
 
'retrieved the black vote'
'has the woman vote'
.....and whatever that last paragraph tries to say..likely.

Unsubstantiated nonsense.

You claim comma-la, only weeks from existing as the least consequential ViceP in history, has now achieved near iconic results in ten days?

The likes on this post made me laugh out loud...
It's all a response bias. The best show in politics broke it down for everyone yesterday. Great watch.

 
The Trump adoration with the flags, signs, truck wraps, etc is certainly not like anything I’ve ever seen. I can’t imagine the Trump fans being like that with another R candidate.

However, a more normal R candidate brings back a bunch of more moderate Rs. Personally, I’m against almost all current progressive policies, but the MAGA populist policies don’t appeal to me either.
Blm flags Ukraine flags rainbow flags. Seems like both sides led by maga or progressives are more passionate and galvanized than the moderates
 
The internet is not a real place. She will need to pick Shapiro or the blue wall is in serious jeopardy. And Trumps lead in AZ and NV looks neat insurmountable at this point.

And yet two ABC polls taken 1 week apart show a completely different story. As does a Fox News poll comparing Feb to now, esp when Dem enthusiasm is measured under Biden vs KH. The reality is that she expands the battleground map because she energizes constituencies like the Youth vote and Blacks.

I also think it's impossible to overstate the importance of Dems timing of having the DNC so close to the start of early/absentee voting in several states. Instead of waiting around the 2 or 3 months between the Convention and Nov, they will be able to harness the renewed enthusiasm to get people out to vote early and bank those votes.Early voting numbers tell you a lot more about the state of the race than polls of people who might not even vote...


The internet is not a real place. She will need to pick Shapiro or the blue wall is in serious jeopardy. And Trumps lead in AZ and NV looks neat insurmountable at this point.


There's no reason to write AZ off. Abortion is on the ballot and Kari Lake, two huge factors playing in Dem favor. And then there are totally unexpected bombshells, like the long time GOP Mayor of Mesa slamming Trump and endorsing Harris...

 
You yourself implied that DANC, Dbm, and Joe would not vote for her. That's a non-insignificant portion of the Trump voters on this site. Let's see what they say.

@DANC @Joe_Hoopsier @dbmhoosier , please feel free to add a response to my poll thread.
I'm not following this thread, so I'm not sure who you mean?

If you mean Haley, you couldn't be more wrong. I said she was a very credible and attractive (not just in a physical way) candidate and would vote for her and I wish she would have been VP candidate.
 
And yet two ABC polls taken 1 week apart show a completely different story. As does a Fox News poll comparing Feb to now, esp when Dem enthusiasm is measured under Biden vs KH. The reality is that she expands the battleground map because she energizes constituencies like the Youth vote and Blacks.

I also think it's impossible to overstate the importance of Dems timing of having the DNC so close to the start of early/absentee voting in several states. Instead of waiting around the 2 or 3 months between the Convention and Nov, they will be able to harness the renewed enthusiasm to get people out to vote early and bank those votes.Early voting numbers tell you a lot more about the state of the race than polls of people who might not even vote...




There's no reason to write AZ off. Abortion is on the ballot and Kari Lake, two huge factors playing in Dem favor. And then there are totally unexpected bombshells, like the long time GOP Mayor of Mesa slamming Trump and endorsing Harris...

You guys keep forecasting a major convention bump. Side by sides of the convention and Hamas protestors burning down Chicago is supposed to be good PR?
 
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Trump easily beats the bottom of the barrel low expectation he has for pubs. :)
it is because mcm knows how awesome dems are so he has high (some might say impossible) expectations for them to be able to fix things.

Trump easily beats the bottom of the barrel low expectation he has for pubs. :)
I only have faith in this progressive iteration of Dems to make the problems they created worse. Equity of outcome isn’t a new idea. It does not work
 
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He’s trying to peel away Jewish voters whose primary or close to primary concern is Israel and its ability to protect itself. We might see a shift in that vote this year.
Probably won't be much of a concern if Shapiro is the VP. Not only is he, like her own husband, Jewish, but he's also outspoken in his support for Israel. In fact that is the one concern I have seen, his vulverability with the Palestinian/Arab communities...

But it's hard to argue with a guy at 61% popularity in PA, who won his election in 2022 by 14% beyond what Biden won PA by in 2020. And the fact that his opponent in 2022 was super MAGA, and his opponents in 2024 are the very epitome of MAGA is just icing on the cake.
 
I'm not following this thread, so I'm not sure who you mean?

If you mean Haley, you couldn't be more wrong. I said she was a very credible and attractive (not just in a physical way) candidate and would vote for her and I wish she would have been VP candidate.
The discussion Murt and I were having was whether Trump voters would vote for Haley if she was the one who came out of the primary. He implied that some posters (you were mentioned) would possibly stay home or vote for Kennedy instead. I disagreed with that. The tag was to invite you (and the others mentioned) to vote in the poll I set up in a different thread and to discuss, if you were so inclined.
I think Republicans missed the mark and would have had a near guaranteed victory if they picked Haley. Please feel free to add more to either this thread of mine if you wish.
 
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Except we can trace policy and actions from local and fed gov and see the resultant spikes. This wasn’t coincidental. Remote work. Draconian lockdowns. Supply and demand. From houses to groceries

Agree.

Just saying we can also exaggerate the blame the pols and their policies have on spikes. Spikes which can be both short term and not really the entire fault of office holders.
 
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The discussion Murt and I were having was whether Trump voters would vote for Haley if she was the one who came out of the primary. He implied that some posters (you were mentioned) would possibly stay home or vote for Kennedy instead. I disagreed with that. The tag was to invite you (and the others mentioned) to vote in the poll I set up in a different thread and to discuss, if you were so inclined.
I think Republicans missed the mark and would have had a near guaranteed victory if they picked Haley. Please feel free to add more to either this thread of mine if you wish.

I know several people whom I respect who never were much interest in politics or even voting who voted for Trump.
 
Urban vs. Rural? White vs. Not White? Christian vs. Non-Christian?

I don't think the dividing line is politics or political philosophy. We're in a bubble on this board snarl. A group of people who pay attention to this shit more than 95% of the rest of the country. We see the dividing line as politics. I don't think it is. I would agree there are massive cultural differences but that they are mostly based on religion or geography.
I don’t think we’re disagreeing that much. I think the political parties have captured those factions in them as well.
"more"

What are we cutting to make it noticeably and meaningfully smaller. Beside the DoD, Medicare, SS? B/c those are third rails. Your concern is probably about the growing of the welfare state. I would agree except that I do honestly believe single payor health insurance is the only way to sustain the health of the nation's populace over the long term. It's also equitable in a way that doesn't require equality of outcomes. That would be growing the federal government (or more likley absorbing the health insruance industry in some regard).
I’m on board cutting everything and yes I know it’s never happening. It’s why I own a crap ton of Bitcoin😁

I disagree on single payer. It would enlarge the government, slow growth, and gut the middle class more.
 
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I disagree on single payer. It would enlarge the government, slow growth, and gut the middle class more.

It's a big step to be sure. But it would also free up companies from an enormous burden they currently pay that their couternparts overseas just don't. Do taxes realized in the vacuum **** that up? Dunno. Probably to some extent.

But single payor would also be much more efficient both opertaionally and from a cost perspective. (with the caveat that it was run competently). And to make clear, I do not believe in nationalizing the health care industry. Just its payment process.
 
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I know several people whom I respect who never were much interest in politics or even voting who voted for Trump.
I believe that. I also believe there were probably an equal number of people who were not-regular voters who (along with the convenience of mail-in voting) filled out ballots for Biden just to get rid of Trump.
I could easily be wrong in this hypothetical, but I think those two groups would relatively cancel each other. Haley would have swung more moderates / independents though.
 
You're going to see a lot of this folks. They are trying to gaslight you again.

Speaking of "gaslighting" and totally misreading/predicting election results...

You on Nov 6,2020

"He won the EC easily. Arizona will flip tonight or tomorrow. Georgia will be won once the military ballots are counted. I was probably more right in this election than anyone else here. I told you all the polls were being cooked. You wouldn't listen. I told you he'd win FL, OH, and TX easily. You wouldn't listen. I also told you all that it would come down to PA and there was a good chance of massive fraud there which is exactly what happened. Trump probably won PA by more than 2 points easily. We'll see what happens in the courts.

But more importantly what did you Dems win long term? The Republicans will keep the Senate so it will be complete stalemate the next 2 years. No MFA, GND, etc. Nothing. Pubs will come out and vote in droves in 2022 due to the fraud and you will lose the House big too. Millennials and minorities won't vote in an off year election. Especially with orange man gone. Then you have crazy Kamala in 2024 who absolutely no one likes and DeSantis, Haley, Rubio, etc whoever is the nominee wins in a landslide. So I'm asking honestly what did you really achieve? The cure will be worse than the disease."

Hell I thought you started shitposting nonsense with the "Red wave" in 2022. But you actually started even earlier, as nearly every prediction you made in that post was complete and utter BS. You even had the gall to claim you knew more about the election than anyone else...

This gem you posted from early 2022 highlighted what I thought was impossible- someone stupider than Barris. Speaking of Barris, is his name Chuck, and wasn't he the host on The Gong Show?

⛏️ Digging Deeper w/Max

~Internal DNC poll leaked confirm my month's old analysis: Dems will be wiped out on November 8th. But it gets worse for them....

~The poll reveals 59% of Whites and Hispanics, equally, plan to vote Republican in November in swing districts.

~The side tabs also showed 42% of AAs Disapprove of Democrats.

~This data comes from swing districts (the 40-60 the GOP are either formally or informally targeting).

~The notion that Whites and Hispanics are in sync re 2022 *in an internal Dem poll* is probably the most shocking thing I've ever seen in polling.

~Dems would lose anyway with nearly 60% of White Swing Voters turning against them, but they could blunt some of the wave with the help of Latinos.

~That ain't happen'! Hispanics are breaking away from Dems, as I predicted for a year. We are looking at parity with Rs on most issues for the major minority group of voters in America.

~Extrapolating the data and applying it to the country at large, the poll infers the GOP could be leading in areas they shouldn't. The events in Virginia and New Jersey would be early indication of this. That means, we could be ahead in parts of California, New York, even Massachusetts. Areas considered "safe" blue are likely purple now, or leaning red.

~However, it gets worse, the Dem polls showed Rs LEADING Ds by 14% on the Congressional ballot overall. This confirms recent Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and CNBC polling.

~Put in perspective, on the eve of the 2010 Midterms, Republicans and Democrats were tied at 45%, each. The GOP went on to win 63 House Seats. Polls notoriously underrepresent Republican voters in samplings.

~What was interesting too was if Dems abandoned all connections to Democrat policy priorities and started responding like Republicans on social and economic issues (eg anti-mandate, anti-mask, GET THIS if Dems come out strong in support of "border security") their numbers improve and they only trail Republicans nationally....by 6%! 🤣

~Given all this, I wouldn't be surprised if 80-100 Seats are in play in the House. To say nothing of races in the Senate, State level races, and county, city, even school boards. Note: I shall be releasing my full Midterm projections for coast-to-coast elections at Civics Maximus 2022. Contact @RoxieBalboa and @CathyDarby to reserve a seat. And yes, it's a Socratic discussion so you can talk and debate face-to-face with me and ask any question.

Regardless, we will have a LOT of surprises this year. But also a LOT of work to do. So, stay tuned.

This is only the beginning.
 
You mistake my honest conviction that Trump is unfit as a person in every way for the office as animus. In his case I do not care what he claims his policies are. I don’t believe he means anything he says.
There are bigger and more important lies about Trump than there are lies by Trump.
 
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Wrong. I’ve over and over, I’m not married to Trump. I am though, totally divorced from anything Dem now and I’ve placed a restraining order on the whole damn party.
When they banned black history including slavery, when they banned books, when they take away your job and put in trumps minion, unless you are already a minion. When they take away your voting and civil rights., when you are back on the bus or eating or getting your food from the back of the restaurant. When there is no accountability for the police, where they can shoot your black son or grandson for no reason. When they can imprison or have more black folks on death row. I can go on and on. I do not understand how anyone black can vote for his trumps grift. DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT WE WENT THROUGH?
 
Regarding the economy, what Trump policies do you believe cratered the economy?

Regarding the recovery from that cratering, what Biden policies do you believe led to a quick and strong recovery?
I think it all hinges on each administration's response to the pandemic. Obviously that changed everything. Trump's response put the US economy in the position Murt likes to blame on Biden and the US economy has been doing much better than other advanced countries under Biden's leadership.
 
When they banned black history including slavery, when they banned books, when they take away your job and put in trumps minion, unless you are already a minion. When they take away your voting and civil rights., when you are back on the bus or eating or getting your food from the back of the restaurant. When there is no accountability for the police, where they can shoot your black son or grandson for no reason. When they can imprison or have more black folks on death row. I can go on and on. I do not understand how anyone black can vote for his trumps grift. DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT WE WENT THROUGH?
Eating in the back of the restaurant is actually the best place to be if an active shooter comes in.
 
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