Didn’t you just write a few minutes ago you don’t believe a word that comes out of his mouth?
The election has changed.
- Thread starter Rockport Zebra
- Start date
I don't know if she'll win. But wouldn't be surprised either way.
Trump won in 2016 because most people thought he had no chance.... And sat at home or voted Green Party, or whatever....Something unlikely to repeat.
Any party that nominates someone with -10 favorability numbers shouldn't feel very confident
Harris is doing better than Biden, but she is still trailing. She needs to make up ground and has a couple of months to do so. However, if she doesn't do it after the DNC, in August, Trump will most likely be the President. Unfortunately for Democrats, she's still a terrible candidate who can be tied to Biden's train wreck administration. Her greatest accomplishment is, I'm not Joe Biden, but I helped him the last 4 years. Not a great campaign slogan. The MSM has a lot work to do the next couple months, but they don't control twitter this election cycle.
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She’ll get a bump from the vp pick. Trump screwed the pooch picking Vance. Super dumb. Offers nothing and may actually cost votes.
I agree it wasn't the best pick, but VP picks are basically meaningless.
If the election is about driving out your base, not capturing independents, maybe Vance makes sense?
I think if you knew the base alone was big enough to win. I don’t think that it Is.
To YOUR point... I'm just not sure that will end up being enough, to get enough non MAGAs, and non Progressives, to pick Trump. I guess what could decide it...who gets more "hold your nose" votes?
My view on it...the sooner Trump is out of politics, the sooner the GOP can back fill with some more reasonable leadership. And when/if that happens, that will put pressure on the Dems to push their farther right members, further out of leadership roles.
Biden and Harris are only still relevant because of Trump. One could argue that Trump only became a thing because of the pendulum shift to more progressive leadership in Washington...that's a very valid argument. But I think Trumps unique personality, presence, and some of the nerve threads he strikes, have A LOT more to do with the MAGA phenomenon...
The unfortunate side effect, for the country and not just for the GOP, is he is eroding many of the great pillars that the GOP has stood for for years...MAGA is strong, its a very large and obviously loyal voting segment...everything outside MAGA though...slow erosion. And that erosion is singularly because of Trump, and its like protein for the progressive movement right now.
You might be right and only time will tell but I think the policy preferences of both parties have changed. It’s not just trump Harris it’s progressive policies are what present Dems want. Present pubs don’t want to police the world. Trump appealed to the old blue collar Dem. That’s not old pubs with trickle down rhetoric.
All this slicing and dicing and fixation on candidates. The truth is we are a very evenly divided country regardless of candidate. It took Biden being a literal walking corpse for Trump to open up a sizable lead on him.
This election will be close like the last two were. 10's of thousands of votes in a handful of states. And that would be true if the Republicans were running Reagan instead of Trump.
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The GOP was getting trounced in national elections. Obama won twice, Clinton was thought to be a foregone conclusion, and many on the right strongly disliked McCain and Romney and Jeb Bush, etc. You could argue GWB was more centrist than true conservative. I think the party needed to be reformed if it was going to ever compete for the Presidency again.
Going forward, if the GOP is to compete, I think they need to cobble together a coalition of MAGA and Hispanic voters. If they could attract Catholic Hispanics, they could draw even with Dems.
If Trump were not on the ballot, she would have been the nominee though, correct?
I would have voted for Haley over Harris. It's not a question of how many Trump voters you would lose, but how many others the Republicans could flip from the last election.
If the choice was Harris or Biden versus Haley, I'm guessing that you'd still get 99.5% of the Trump voters to pull the lever for Haley in November. If for no more reason than to kill the progressive movement. You'd get a good chunk of the suburban housewife vote back (Haley was moderate on the abortion issue) and you would get some of the military vote back (I know a couple of vets who do not like Trump for some of his comments about military personnel and will never vote for him).
Most importantly, you would have reduced the anti-Trump vote. TDS, although exaggerated, is real to the point that people will be motivated to get out to vote to stop him.
Harris is not Trump, but she would have given Republicans 90% of the same things that Trump brings. If enough people realized that, Haley would have won by a landslide.
If Harris wins in November, Republicans have no one to blame but themselves.
I tend to think he is. Throw in Vance's bone-headed comment about single, childless cat ladies running the Democratic party and both guys are pretty unlikeable by a sizeable number of the electorate. People are puzzled by how Joe Biden got a record setting number of votes in 2020, I strongly believe it was because a lot of people just genuinely hated Trump and were embarrassed by him. I think that will come into play.
And I fully admit that this is a sad commentary on our society's addiction to celebrity worship, but if Taylor Swift comes out as a single childless cat lady and somehow endorses Harris, I think that will all but guarantee Harris wins.
Trump needs to tone down his rhetoric now to show that he is a changed man after his assassination attempt. If he is truly a smart man, he will keep his same policies but reiterate them in a kinder, gentler way. This will sway the independent/undecided sliders his way. I’m not sure he can do it any other way but his way, demeaning of others. Bob Knight had a similar personality, one that is effective, but boorish in behavior and offensive to others. They both are/were easy ones for their detractors to hate.
I won’t be surprised if Harris wins. Four more years of progressive ideology will turn societal norms, as we once knew of them, upside down. That’s my bad news. My good news? At my age, it won’t be my problem to worry about for very long, relatively speaking, I hope.
I won’t be surprised if Harris wins. Four more years of progressive ideology will turn societal norms, as we once knew of them, upside down. That’s my bad news. My good news? At my age, it won’t be my problem to worry about for very long, relatively speaking, I hope.
I think all of this is pretty spot on. The number of people who truly hate Trump and think he's an idiot shouldn't be discounted. It's significant and what likely won the election for Biden in 2020.
I disagree. Maga is the base. They didn’t want nor like Haley. You have to play to your majority
Trump is incapable of toning down his rhetoric. Republicans said he would. He even said he would. But given the truth social posts, interviews and rally speeches since being shot at, he hasn't toned anything down one bit. I also think trying to say Harris doesn't like Jews or imply that she slept her way to the top is going to go over like calling out single childless cat ladies.
Totally disagree. Old pubs lost to Obama twice and would have lost to Hilary. Maga won 2016 and got trump in in 20 and 24. That’s your core and your majority. That’s who you play to
I put the odds at this happening at about 1 in 10 million.
Trump is Trump. For better or worse, he is not going to change. Frankly, half of his popularity is do to his no-compromise attitude.
You're right it has. Trump is improving. Harris needs to win the popular vote by at least 4 points to have a chance. She does a lot better than Biden in places like CA, NY, NJ, MA, etc but a lot worse in PA, MI, WI, AZ, etc. Baris said yesterday there are realistic scenarios where Harris can win the popular vote by 4.5 and lose the EC.
That's the thing people don't seem to understand. Popular vote polls that show Trump/ Harris tied or even Harris with a slight lead is bad news for Democrats.
Pray for this country if a “single, childless cat lady” glib comment offends so many people that it ultimately changes the course of US history.
Right and 4 years later no one else has come close to displacing him. The policies he espouses are today’s party. He’s a pump gas close the border lower taxes isolationist bring jobs back candidate. Bush cheney McCain. That’s not the party anymore. Three elections. That doesn’t mean he will win. Winning isn’t dispositive to the question. It may be as simple as more people today prefer Dems and Dems policies
No one has displaced him, but he also hasn't been a part of a winning election cycle since 2016. He lost in 2020, and his record in endorsing candidates in close races is abysmal. I do think people prefer Democratic policies, but I also think that if Haley were the GOP nominee against Harris, she'd have a better chance of winning. I truly believe people hate Trump and all the cult of personality BS he brings to the table.
And if he loses, it's going to so effing exhausting watching him and his sycophants pout and whine about stolen elections. He just needs to go away.
Bob Knight wasn’t capable of changing either. Trump needs to forego all the personal putdowns in favor of time spent in explanation of how he will make lives better these next four years.
I wasn’t aware Harris didn’t like Jews. Are she and her husband not getting along?
“Sleeping her way to the top” is a common modality of advancement warranting no more than an eye roll and wry smile in the progressive way of thinking. They do whatever it takes to get their way, even if it includes deceit to avoid defeat.
The problem is that it most definitely has offended a lot of people. And Vance is doubling down on it when asked about it. He's a bad addition to the GOP presidential ticket.
That was the point of me bringing up Trump's recent claim that she doesn't like Jews. It's ridiculous because she's happily married to someone who is Jewish and there is no proof that she's anti-semitic in any way. That didn't stop Trump from saying it though.
I was saying that him trying to get that to stick is dumb and ridiculous.
He’s trying to peel away Jewish voters whose primary or close to primary concern is Israel and its ability to protect itself. We might see a shift in that vote this year.
I think DeSantis wins the nominee if Trump doesn't run.
It may be something as simple as more people today feeling like they haven’t gotten a fair shake in life than those who like to think they have. Open border policy and slanted media have certainly added to the former numbers.
Yes you’re a far left radical liberal in a college town. Of course that’s your feeling. Cross the board and go outside Parkersburg and throughout West Virginia and Appalachia etc. trump speaks to them. About jobs and gas and coal and not coding and woke cult politics. The left woke cult desperately needs to go away. Harris Biden and the rest. people prefer the policies of trump to old guard pubs. Put on your big boy pants and worry about policy not noise
I think that’s a good point. The right feeling left behind support maga who speaks to that. The left with endless free cheese speaks to it too on the other side
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