There are a LOT of factors. US new business creation was at a record level last year and this year is even higher so far:
After waning for decades, applications to start businesses surged last year. If the rebound proves durable, it could provide a more resilient economy.
www.nytimes.com
So people leave the workforce and start their own businesses. That's sort of a Republican dream normally. But it does mean fewer people to do jobs for others.
A lot of people over 55 have just left the workforce. Now some may have started a business, but many appear to have just decided it was time to leave:
The proportion of older workers participating in the labor force is hovering at its worst level since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, potentially impairing economic growth.
www.wsj.com
I was reading another link, cannot find it, that older workers that want back in aren't finding it easy. Jobs asking for "at least 3 years experience" don't think 30 years counts.
The childcare shortage was already a problem, and costs were high. It is worse.
Centers are closed, pay is low, and young kids aren’t vaccinated. Some caregivers have had enough.
www.theatlantic.com
If someone basically pays their day's wage for childcare, what's the point of the job? It is believed this is why women left the workforce more than men. But it can be more than childcare, aging parents need care too. Home health care for adults has also been a cost burden and fraught with shortages pre-covid. It is worse now. Again, it is more likely for women to leave work to help an elderly parent.
Seniors, their families and states are eager to keep older Americans in their homes and out of nursing homes, but those efforts are often thwarted by worker shortages and low pay.
www.npr.org
We've been through the problem with the trucking industry, there have been growing shortages the last ten years. But with everything else running well it covered up the problem. Working drivers overtime allowed everything to get through. What happens when they cannot work more overtime?
Now certainly there are people staying home because they have their stimulus check and don't need to work. But that $1200 doesn't last forever. Most states no longer pay more for unemployment, again that money should be running out. People left the workforce in September, which was after the additional UE ended in many states.
There are a lot of factors, and solving any one doesn't necessarily put us back to where we want to be.