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Supply chains

It's a very simple numbers game. Not enough people to serve the people that demand service.

We've been to telling all of you dumb old fks for years that there isn't enough replacement labor to keep everyone fat and happy.

You same old fks hate importing labor.


The old rule in construction.

Fast. Cheap. Right.

You can have two, but not all 3.



No different than the labor market.
"It's a very simple ..."

Not enough WORKING people/people willing/having to work. Too much gov welfare, for the domestic & imported.

Btw, you can import all the immigrants/illegals you want, & if they can't/don't speak English, don't have the necessary work skills/desire/need to work, you are actually making our problems worse, economically & otherwise.

Yep, it's a numbers game alright. The number of people wanting/needing to work is lower than acceptable.
 
Makes me think Biden’s awful border policies are purpose driven. 1. Increase the Democratic voter base and 2. Supply labor to fill low wage positions.
If 85% of these incoming 'immigrants' were voting (R), Pelosi & Schumer would be on the border, repelling them with AK-47s & rocket launchers, day & night.
 
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  • China has an energy shortage.
  • Europe has an energy shortage.
  • Backlog of 200 container ships waiting to load at Chinese ports
  • Backlog of 60 container ships waiting to unload at Long Beach and L.A.
  • transportation labor shortage all over U.S.
Energy Prices will be zooming up which means all prices will be zooming up. Vaccine mandates will make hiring more difficult and labor shortage worse. Energy will be further limited. Wild ride ahead, hang on to your hats if you can find one.



https://theweek.com/coronavirus/100...r-of-americans-aged-35-54-last-month-and-no-2
 

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It’s clear our country is in a malaise. If only we could turn down the thermostats a little and wear sweaters indoors I’m sure all will be fine….
 
I thought this Forbes article pointed out the problems well, and there are many problems:


There is a lack of containers. The would shipped a lot of containers to Africa during COVID with items like masks, they haven't come back because it is more profitable to make runs to Europe/North America. Overall usage is up worldwide, we just don't have enough containers.

There is a shortage of ships. The ships we use are double or triple the size of ships from 2000. This puts more pressure on ports that aren't sized to handle that much. The port of LA is actually 50% more productive today than pre-COVID.

Truck drivers are in short supply, the point we seem to cover well but there aren't enough people to move goods when it gets here.

Rail is backed up, they laid off a lot in 2020 and removed a lot of locomotives from service. People aren't coming back to those jobs. Chicago is a major chokepoint.

And of course, warehouses are full.

The worst port congestion worldwide? Hong Kong and Shanghai. LA is actually 4th behind Singapore.


Even the Suez Canal blockage from months ago has played a role. A lot of traffic was backed up and that added pressure to the chain that the chain has never caught up from:


It is a global phenomenon. Japan reports problems, China, the UK, the EU. Russia doesn't have enough workers for its rail moving product from China to Europe:


So here are some crazy ideas:

Some states are looking to the National Guard for emergency school bus drivers. We should consider that for trucking in the short term. Maybe look at adding an hour a day to what truck drivers are allowed to drive for the duration of this problem. The infrastructure bill needs to include a plan to upgrade ports once this is over, as container ships get so much larger our ports need to be able to grow to accommodate them. Another long-term solution, enhanced education benefits for truck driving school. Maybe if it was free this shortage that has been decades in the making can be improved. Use navy ships, if possible, to get containers back from Africa. Maybe create a locomotive/railcar graveyard in the desert. These things would be kept in serviceable condition and able to be brought back into service in the event of an emergency.
 
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A crate will cost you about $22K-24k right now. (You can get cheaper if you shop around, or use an abroad co.). If i remember right, it was about $4-6k 18mo ago.
It is about 4-6 weeks just to book a crate right now. This is peak season so lead times will be reduced, but i doubt the cost will go down. I doubt once you taste that level of profit you are willing to give it up.
Some box stores are sending out their dry vans to the ports so they can have xmas stuff on the shelf...
 
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Did someone hit him over the head while he was birthing?

Lying Psaki and pete are a perfect combo of incompetence and dishonesty. It's impossible for them to come out and say the truth: people sat home and saved their money during the pandemic because they couldn't go to restaurants or games, and we gave them free money on top of the money they were already saving, so they've bought a ton of shit online. more than ever before. they also realized that they didn't need or want to drive trucks or stack shelves in a smelly, dusty warehouse anymore. we're figuring out what to do; it's been delayed a bit as pete took a couple months off. but he's back now trying to catch up

Bam easy
 
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What is so crazy about the position he took? Demand has overwhelmed the supply chain, has it not? Doesn't high demand for goods indicate a strong economy?
The same problems are happening everywhere, supply chains are breaking in almost every country. I posted above that ports in Asia are more backed up than the Port of LA. China is desperately short of factory workers. Russian rail can't keep up. The EU has a major shortage of truck drivers.

The world came out of a steep recession very quickly. The supply chains couldn't keep up. No one thought through what would happen if just in time wasn't.
 
people sat home and saved their money during the pandemic because they couldn't go to restaurants or games, and we gave them free money on top of the money they were already saving

I think both you and Mark are right in that there are likely several contributing factors. It's a big economy after all.

Side note on the quote above, I deal with a ton of subprime auto lenders. Their repossession volumes (again some of this is related to moratoriums, etc). are so low they almost don't know what to do. They are itching to repo b/c the used car prices at auction are so high but their default rates (30/60/90) are at record lows. They look like banks for chrissakes. They too attribute this to people just sitting on money. Nobody went on vacation, the movies, dinner, etc for like 12 months. The metrics are so oddball as to be useless at this point.
 
The same problems are happening everywhere, supply chains are breaking in almost every country. I posted above that ports in Asia are more backed up than the Port of LA. China is desperately short of factory workers. Russian rail can't keep up. The EU has a major shortage of truck drivers.

The world came out of a steep recession very quickly. The supply chains couldn't keep up. No one thought through what would happen if just in time wasn't.
i do a lot of shipping from overseas. covid is still a big issue in warehouses in parts of the world. pakistan is getting vaccines from china and there are cities w/ less than 10 percent vaccinated
 
I think both you and Mark are right in that there are likely several contributing factors. It's a big economy after all.

Side note on the quote above, I deal with a ton of subprime auto lenders. Their repossession volumes (again some of this is related to moratoriums, etc). are so low they almost don't know what to do. They are itching to repo b/c the used car prices at auction are so high but their default rates (30/60/90) are at record lows. They look like banks for chrissakes. They too attribute this to people just sitting on money. Nobody went on vacation, the movies, dinner, etc for like 12 months. The metrics are so oddball as to be useless at this point.
And of course we don't have leaders in this admin or the prior capable of foreseeing anything. Afghan collapse, border exploding, supply getting bogged
 
And of course we don't have leaders in this admin or the prior capable of foreseeing anything. Afghan collapse, border exploding, supply getting bogged
Honest question b/c I don't know but has the federal government (regardless of political affiliation or administration) ever had to respond to something like COVID. There was the Spanish Flu but the federal govt was a whole different entity in those days.

I think the reaction/overreaction this time was entirely related to what happened in 2008/9. We just didn't want that to happen again. Now we have some new problems but I do think they're not as bad as the Great Recession.
 
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And of course we don't have leaders in this admin or the prior capable of foreseeing anything. Afghan collapse, border exploding, supply getting bogged
Speaking of borders. More cowardliness.


 
Honest question b/c I don't know but has the federal government (regardless of political affiliation or administration) ever had to respond to something like COVID. There was the Spanish Flu but the federal govt was a whole different entity in those days.

I think the reaction/overreaction this time was entirely related to what happened in 2008/9. We just didn't want that to happen again. Now we have some new problems but I do think they're not as bad as the Great Recession.
Consensus was we didn't go big enough in 2008/9. Weren't going to make that mistake again.
 
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Honest question b/c I don't know but has the federal government (regardless of political affiliation or administration) ever had to respond to something like COVID. There was the Spanish Flu but the federal govt was a whole different entity in those days.

I think the reaction/overreaction this time was entirely related to what happened in 2008/9. We just didn't want that to happen again. Now we have some new problems but I do think they're not as bad as the Great Recession.
i believe that inertia best describes gov so anything novel they won't be equipped to handle. as to your economics question i'd defer to others who have a stronger grasp of economics than i. w/o support for same i would argue that in some ways things are worse than 08. inflation is making things really difficult. in 08 we had a crash and the price of houses collapsed. i read that the average new car price is $45-50,000. houses are through the roof expensive. in parts of fla they are up 50% in a year. rents are way up. all of that makes life really hard
 
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The same people who decry socialism, big government, and regulations are now blaming the government for not solving a market failure problem. Can the cost of a shipping container remain 10x what it was? I dunno, but I believe the fix will be a market fix.

Dealers are adding $10k on a Kia right now. The market fix is locating the dealer that will sell it at MSRP.
 
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If Buttigieg spent less time changing diapers and breast feeding the media and more time doing his job as Secretary of Transportation to solve our shipping logistics crisis maybe others could find diapers at their local pharmacies.

Our shelves are pretty empty here in the pharmacy.
 
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If Buttigieg spent less time changing diapers and breast feeding the media and more time doing his job as Secretary of Transportation to solve our shipping logistics crisis maybe others could find diapers at their local pharmacies.

Our shelves are pretty empty here in the pharmacy.
Gov manipulated the labor market via stim, unemployment, and childcare money. They can run the port 24/7 but if there are no truckers to drive and no one at warehouses at 2 am to process goods it makes little difference. The labor fix won't come until people run out of money and need jobs.
 
Gov manipulated the labor market via stim, unemployment, and childcare money. They can run the port 24/7 but if there are no truckers to drive and no one at warehouses at 2 am to process goods it makes little difference. The labor fix won't come until people run out of money and need jobs.
Most likely more give away coming. No labor fix over the horizon.
 
Most likely more give away coming. No labor fix over the horizon.
my buddy owns a bunch of restaurants in town. He's offering $25 an hour to start for cooks and staff. that's $50k a year. no education required. that's a what a public defender starts at with a law degree.
 
my buddy owns a bunch of restaurants in town. He's offering $25 an hour to start for cooks and staff. that's $50k a year. no education required. that's a what a public defender starts at with a law degree.
So doesn’t that throw cold water on the argument that UI is keeping people from taking these jobs? Max UI in Indiana is $390 and the average is $280 per week. That’s poverty level.

This current labor market is very confusing right now. There is no singular answer.
 
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