Even China is keeping their equivocation to the most vague version possible.
Russia-Ukraine war has begun
- Thread starter TheOriginalHappyGoat
- Start date
Yea, you need an organized insurgency. I would have organized all men 16-60 into groups of 10. And I would organize acts of terror in Russia cities prior to today to be carried out henceforth.
I would have preferred starting with serious sanctions against elites with the hopes of convincing Putin to change his path. I think we took the wrong approach. I do think this may lead to the downfall of Putin if it becomes bloody on the Russian side.
BBC just added Odessa to the list of places hearing explosions.
Edit: Which CNN confirms.
Edit: Which CNN confirms.
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Then every man is a target. I don't need a bunch of targets, I need key people who will fight and a bunch of people who are willing to help hide them.
If the Russians are too heavy handed, the insurgency will grow organically.
Off the top of my head, I've experienced racism twice in my life. Once in Ukraine and once in China. The unfortunate reality is that there are Nazis in the Ukrainian armed forces. Moreover, they did shut down Russian speaking radio stations and attempt to delete the Russian language from all spheres. It does not excuse Putin's actions, but these are facts.
If Russia actually invades one can imagine the horrors. Rape, death, torture, etc. The rules of war no longer apply. Only if Ukraine fights a total war resting on the support of the populace do they have a chance.
If the Russians go for Kyiv, does that change anybody’s stance on real NATO military action?
I doubt it. No one in NATO has any desire to intervene militarily. But the desire for sanctions might ramp up enough to make Russia an economic pariah.
Addendum: That's just as a response to the invasion. Things could change weeks or months down the road after an occupation.
Too late for sanctions. It must be done and it will be done, but it won't change anything.
No, it definitely won't. Ukraine will become a puppet state, or eventually, guerilla warfare will push the Russians out. In many years. But it's very unlikely that there will be any international force coming to their aid.
China could very well be in the on deck circle, just waiting to see how Putin makes out, and the West's response.
I think the only caveat is we wait to see if it is a full-scale invasion. It certainly appears so. I really did not understand the strategy. Democrats (I mean the party elites) are too keen on diplomacy. You have to know your opponent and play tough on occasion. The time for tough sanctions was much earlier. I have been calling for sanctioning Russians elites on this forum for years. The United States is filled with dirty money and criminals from all over the FSU. Too many are bought off imo.
It’s going to get dicey. Agree on the idea of completely shunning Russia economically to whatever extent we can (though our soft power in that regard has diminished). However, China’s disposition will matter greatly. Very interested to see how they respond
I'm not sure why China is relevant here? My sense is sit wait on the sideline and let others cannibalize themselves.
Putin already owns Belarus. Georgia has probably already been worried for many years. Estonia still has NATO.
MSNBC had a guy on the coast at Odessa saying that he couldn’t confirm that, he wasn’t seeing any land invasion.
Clearly Putin plans to take all of Ukraine and that will probably be the end of it because the United States isn’t gonna let them go further west into NATO territory.
Per The Guardian, Ukrainian Interior officials confirm Russian troops in Odessa and Mariupol.
NB: These reports are all from Ukrainian officials, not from journalists.
Just dropping this for everyone:
List of countries by foreign-exchange reserves - Wikipedia
Ukraine for now. They already have a puppet in Belarus and Estonia would trigger Article 5. They gauge reaction and see how well the occupation and response to sanctions goes. They will also test NATO to see if any cracks in alliance form.
Kyiv is on the Dnieper … blowing bridges on the Dnieper to stop the tanks means the war is over.
Marine landings in Odessa says to me that Putin is after more than two eastern provinces.
https://www.grida.no/resources/5337
Marine landings in Odessa says to me that Putin is after more than two eastern provinces.
https://www.grida.no/resources/5337
Loss of the Baltics really bothered Russia, but Belarus and Ukraine are special. NATO in Estonia is like Soviet missiles in Cuba. NATO in Ukraine would be like Soviet missiles in Windsor, Ontario.
There is also a Russian base in TiraspolKyiv is on the Dnieper … blowing bridges on the Dnieper to stop the tanks means the war is over.
Marine landings in Odessa says to me that Putin is after more than two eastern provinces.
https://www.grida.no/resources/5337
Basic military strategy requires him to prioritize taking the entire coast. Even if he doesn't push all the way to Kyiv.Kyiv is on the Dnieper … blowing bridges on the Dnieper to stop the tanks means the war is over.
Marine landings in Odessa says to me that Putin is after more than two eastern provinces.
https://www.grida.no/resources/5337
Which, FWIW, I think he intends to do, anyway.
It for sure bugs them, but the Baltics are a high possibility to kick off WW3. Whole new level of risk compared to Ukraine.
True. I'm just saying I don't think he's willing to risk for the Baltics what he'd be willing to risk for Ukraine.
They aren't just Slavic. A thousand years ago, they were all the same people. The cultural and ethnic affinity between Russians, Belarussians, and Ukrainians is about as close as it can get.
Zelenskiy addressing the Ukrainian people, promising victory, and also saying they will be implementing martial law nation-wide.
BBC: Russia says it is not bombing civilian areas, but is executing "precision" strikes against military infrastructure, aviation, and weapons in Ukraine.
