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Russia-Ukraine war has begun

China is big and corrupt enough that they can afford to be neutral and appear to play bot sides depending on who is watching. Their economy will soldier on no matter what. But yes, in the long run China needs us much more than they need Russia. This is also why Putin is desperate.

Also, I think worst case scenario this results in Belarus and Ukraine being annexed I doubt that happens but that’s the worst case IMO. They’ll be spread so thin at that point it’ll be like cornering a possum and for a nihilist like Putin that’s when he’s most dangerous.

Excellent points. This reeks of desperation by Putin. But that's where I don't get it. Why is he desperate? He could keep selling his natural resources (and expanding his ability to extract them) and become more intertwined in the world economy. But he's going this route, which is going to make him a pariah. Somebody mentioned earlier that Russia would, at best, be a vassal state to China b/c of China's economic largesse.

I don't think he's threatened internally politically? So what's his play? The ports in Ukraine? Agree he could just annex Belarus and Ukraine but that just weakens his position (or should) on the world stage. Maybe he's just a megalomaniac
 
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Ranger, completely agree.

However, once the nukes are off the table there still exists biological, chemical, and cyber warfare.
Agreed. But with those we can go more isolationist than nukes that can wipe us off the map from subs thousands of miles away.
 
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Excellent points. This reeks of desperation by Putin. But that's where I don't get it. Why is he desperate? He could keep selling his natural resources (and expanding his ability to extract them) and become more intertwined in the world economy. But he's going this route, which is going to make him a pariah. Somebody mentioned earlier that Russia would, at best, be a vassal state to China b/c of China's economic largesse.

I don't think he's threatened internally politically? So what's his play? The ports in Ukraine? Agree he could just annex Belarus and Ukraine but that just weakens his position (or should) on the world stage. Maybe he's just a megalomaniac
Because all fossil fuels are eventually going to be worthless. Eventually is the operating and subjective term. Putin and the OPEC leads are dead men walking and they’re too heavy handed to invest in turning their economies into future-proof economies capable of surviving post-fossil fuel.
 
China is big and corrupt enough that they can afford to be neutral and appear to play bot sides depending on who is watching. Their economy will soldier on no matter what. But yes, in the long run China needs us much more than they need Russia. This is also why Putin is desperate.

Also, I think worst case scenario this results in Belarus and Ukraine being annexed I doubt that happens but that’s the worst case IMO. They’ll be spread so thin at that point it’ll be like cornering a possum and for a nihilist like Putin that’s when he’s most dangerous.
China doesn't necessarily need us, they need to replace us. If they can dominate Asia in the same way that we dominate Europe, then they have a growing population, with growing buying power, to sell their goods.

The U.S. provided defense to Europe and basically made them a protectorate of the U.S. The smaller militaries on the continent have helped to produce a little pan-Europeanism. However, it has also made those countries far too dependent on the U.S. for their defense. Protectorates are bad allies IMO. They have a way of pulling you into conflicts you do not necessarily need to engage in and they do not provide the same type of support that a true ally would.

Like or dislike Trump, he has been somewhat correct in the idea that Europe (particularly the Germans) have been freeloading for the better part of the past 20 to 30 years. They need to step up more because the U.S. cannot be expected to maintain the world order that they very much benefit from in the face of both Russian and Chinese aggression on its own.

One last thing, we need to get back to the idea of American exceptionalism. All this garbage getting pumped out about how bad a country this is by our own academia and media is detrimental to the type of posture a nation needs to have if they are going to have to continue to carry this burden. Everybody likes to dog the U.S. until stuff like this happens and then it becomes "well what is the U.S. going to do...." Well, if we are nothing more than another imperial power who was founded on racism and all that is evil in the world, we are going to do jack shit. You don't willingly go to help people if they believe you are a bad guy and you believe the same. Milley needs to shut the **** up about "white rage". The enemy does not view us as white, black, or Asian, they view us all as Americans. So we need to start ****ing acting like it instead of all this stupid ass political and racial division all the time.

The United States is the greatest country on earth. How do I know? Because every time a Putin or Xi or some other tinpot dictator gets out of line, the U.S. is always the first country on the lips of the truly oppressed and true victims begging for help.

(Stepping off soapbox---and that was not all directed at you Ranger, I just got on a roll)
 
China doesn't necessarily need us, they need to replace us. If they can dominate Asia in the same way that we dominate Europe, then they have a growing population, with growing buying power, to sell their goods.

The U.S. provided defense to Europe and basically made them a protectorate of the U.S. The smaller militaries on the continent have helped to produce a little pan-Europeanism. However, it has also made those countries far too dependent on the U.S. for their defense. Protectorates are bad allies IMO. They have a way of pulling you into conflicts you do not necessarily need to engage in and they do not provide the same type of support that a true ally would.

Like or dislike Trump, he has been somewhat correct in the idea that Europe (particularly the Germans) have been freeloading for the better part of the past 20 to 30 years. They need to step up more because the U.S. cannot be expected to maintain the world order that they very much benefit from in the face of both Russian and Chinese aggression on its own.

One last thing, we need to get back to the idea of American exceptionalism. All this garbage getting pumped out about how bad a country this is by our own academia and media is detrimental to the type of posture a nation needs to have if they are going to have to continue to carry this burden. Everybody likes to dog the U.S. until stuff like this happens and then it becomes "well what is the U.S. going to do...." Well, if we are nothing more than another imperial power who was founded on racism and all that is evil in the world, we are going to do jack shit. You don't willingly go to help people if they believe you are a bad guy and you believe the same. Milley needs to shut the **** up about "white rage". The enemy does not view us as white, black, or Asian, they view us all as Americans. So we need to start ****ing acting like it instead of all this stupid ass political and racial division all the time.

The United States is the greatest country on earth. How do I know? Because every time a Putin or Xi or some other tinpot dictator gets out of line, the U.S. is always the first country on the lips of the truly oppressed and true victims begging for help.

(Stepping off soapbox---and that was not all directed at you Ranger, I just got on a roll)
And while I am on a roll, I think Biden mishandled some stuff and I don't believe Trump is some Putin pawn but he really needs to shut the **** up about how "brilliant" Putin is too. I want the U.S. to be more selective about where we stick our nose, but some people on the right are getting really uncomfortably close to being Russian apologists and I did not sign up for that. Our domestic squabbles need to stay in house. We don't need to be providing the Russians with American propaganda supporting what they are doing.
 
Age old bromine about Ukraine because they welcomed the Germans into the country during WWII, which some did due to Stalin's genocide of its people. Putin is not going to let that little detail stand in his way. He's a true sociopath.
Also, a real time example of why Tossing around false claims of “Nazi” and “Klan” and “white supremacy“ are horrible ideas. It’s all fun until some fool or crazy government uses that social propaganda to make/find others crazy enough to support a military maneuver. Words matter.

Putin “getting back at“ Ukraine for the reaction to Operation Barbarossa is bizarre on steroids. But there it is - “Saving Ukraine from the Nazis.” The truth or falsity is irrelevant. It’s just a tool now, in the hands of a maniac. No way to stop it.

Putin has bet his country’s next 25 years that he can attack a nation at peace and keep some of the land grab - just like Hitler. “What are they gonna do?” The answer is “nothing.” He got whatever parts of Ukraine he wants. The time to prevent it is over.
 
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Ranger, completely agree.

However, once the nukes are off the table there still exists biological, chemical, and cyber warfare.
An international relations professor I used to play racquetball with was fond of the phrase, "No one wants to be the dictator of a parking lot." I agree that nuclear weapons are not going to be a major concern, but the others you cited, particularly cyber, really are.
 
Because every time a Putin or Xi or some other tinpot dictator gets out of line, the U.S. is always the first country on the lips of the truly oppressed and true victims begging for help.

Agree with everything after the comma. But Putin and Xi are definitely not "tinpot" dictators. They are nuclear dictators.
 
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And while I am on a roll, I think Biden mishandled some stuff and I don't believe Trump is some Putin pawn but he really needs to shut the **** up about how "brilliant" Putin is too. I want the U.S. to be more selective about where we stick our nose, but some people on the right are getting really uncomfortably close to being Russian apologists and I did not sign up for that. Our domestic squabbles need to stay in house. We don't need to be providing the Russians with American propaganda supporting what they are doing.
I'm not sure how much of the old "politics stops at the waters edge" was true vs nostalgia, but he really does need to just stop talking. The "brilliant" Putin stuff is very cringey, but I'm actually more put off by his quote the other day really got me: "This would not have happened during my administration. In fact, some people are saying why didn't this take place over the last four years? It didn't for a very good reason and I'll explain that to you someday, but it wouldn't have taken place and it wouldn't have taken place right now." That's the worst kind of politics with a major international incident.
 
China could very well be in the on deck circle, just waiting to see how Putin makes out, and the West's response.
Taiwan is a goner.

Putin and China are willing to risk and ENGAGE IN world war to pursue their idea of their interests. The west plays politics and argues over petty politics and views war in the abstract, as a historical topic … until the warnings become real, and it’s too late.

It would take hundreds of thousands of soldiers to dislodge Russia from Ukraine already. It’s a price no western nation will pay, and China - who starved millions of its own more recently than Ukraine “welcomed” Operation Barbarossa - is willing to do much worse than Putin.

Pray that Putin stops with Ukraine. Millions of lives may depend on his decision.
 
I'm not sure how much of the old "politics stops at the waters edge" was true vs nostalgia, but he really does need to just stop talking. The "brilliant" Putin stuff is very cringey, but I'm actually more put off by his quote the other day really got me: "This would not have happened during my administration. In fact, some people are saying why didn't this take place over the last four years? It didn't for a very good reason and I'll explain that to you someday, but it wouldn't have taken place and it wouldn't have taken place right now." That's the worst kind of politics with a major international incident.
Kim shooting off missiles. Putin attacking Ukraine. Is it purely coincidental it didn't occur under Trump but happened in a year under Biden? Or wholly unrelated?
 
Agree with everything after the comma. But Putin and Xi are definitely not "tinpot" dictators. They are nuclear dictators.
Yeah I did not articulate that. I meant Putin, Xi (one category of authoritarian) or some other tinpot dictator (another category of authoritarian).

Chalk it up to poor sentence construction on my part.
 
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China seems more supportive of Russia than some here thought:

Xi’s government echoes Russian frustration with what they say is unfair American dominance of global affairs and Moscow’s rejection of the eastward expansion of NATO, the U.S.-European military alliance.​
And from that article, China just signed a deal to buy Russian wheat.

Forgot the link

Meh that looks like a nothing burger to me. Need some hard $$$ figures. You think Russia is a big enough economy for China's products?
 
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Kim shooting off missiles. Putin attacking Ukraine. Is it purely coincidental it didn't occur under Trump but happened in a year under Biden? Or wholly unrelated?
Kim shot missles off under Trump. Not sure where you got that from. Personally, I think Trump would have stonewalled sanctions against Russia following today's events.
 
Meh that looks like a nothing burger to me. Need some hard $$$ figures. You think Russia is a big enough economy for China's products?
Russia doesn't need to buy China's products, Russia has to SELL products. We aren't about to embargo China, no one has that on the table anywhere. But Russian wheat and gas need sold to fund the military, and China can buy one hell of a lot.
 
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Kim shooting off missiles. Putin attacking Ukraine. Is it purely coincidental it didn't occur under Trump but happened in a year under Biden? Or wholly unrelated?
Kim did shoot off missiles during the Trump administration, but that's neither here nor there. I do think it's purely coincidental.

My real problem with the quote though is that he's making boasts with no clear reasoning, but he'll get back to us later. He'd do well to just be quiet.

If Mitt Romney wants to take a victory lap for bringing up Russia as an existential threat in 2012, then I'm fine by that. But I don't buy that Trump talking tough with Kim created a deterrent with Putin, or that Putin was afraid Trump would enter the US into a war. Particularly because we've seen on other threads where certain folks think Biden is itching to get us into a war to wag the dog. It just seems like cognitive dissonance.
 
Doesn't sound like it's being planned at all. Good old appeasement again by the Europeans. It's worked out so well historically for them.

I hear Europe isn't the only one, America is afraid to do it. We are worried that Russia/China will move to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.

 
No. Once the nuclear age became the way we can no longer be purely nationalistic and not participating at great scale in international politics and conflicts. We have to keep autocratic governments - especially nuclear ones - at bay. Unfortunately for our allies abroad that means often forcing conflicts to happen there. Simply being a strong ally of us and NATO means all states bordering a failed nuclear power like Russia are at risk. Same is true with Taiwan and China.

There is no turning back from this posture until the entire world decommissions all of its nukes.
Sounds like war propaganda and thinking from 60 - 70 years ago. Forcing conflicts to happen with NATO expansion sounds like starting war to me. While I don't agree with what russia is doing I don't agree with those beliefs either. NATO should be disbanded.




 
I hear Europe isn't the only one, America is afraid to do it. We are worried that Russia/China will move to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.


Pathetic. This administration is a joke.
 
Pathetic. This administration is a joke.

I don't KNOW that the article is accurate. But IF there is a risk of the dollar losing its status, that is a huge risk. People can buy US debt knowing the dollar is safe. That goes away if countries start trading in bitcoin. So it might be more of a last resort IF that is a real risk. I'm not an economist so I'm claiming no knowledge if it is a real risk or if it would be as bad as some make it sound.
 
Because all fossil fuels are eventually going to be worthless. Eventually is the operating and subjective term. Putin and the OPEC leads are dead men walking and they’re too heavy handed to invest in turning their economies into future-proof economies capable of surviving post-fossil fuel.
Fossil fuels will be the world’s economic and power currency for generations. And they will be more important in the near future than they are today.
 
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I don't KNOW that the article is accurate. But IF there is a risk of the dollar losing its status, that is a huge risk. People can buy US debt knowing the dollar is safe. That goes away if countries start trading in bitcoin. So it might be more of a last resort IF that is a real risk. I'm not an economist so I'm claiming no knowledge if it is a real risk or if it would be as bad as some make it sound.
Sweet. I KNEW Bitcoin was a great investment!!! Much love ballerboogie
 
I haveta think Putin factored in sanctions when deciding to invade. While we should certainly impose sanctions, we should exploit what Putin fears more than sanctions. That would be resistance and insurrection. This invasion has sparked more Putin resistance inside Russia. We need to go all in on fomenting political upheaval. Take a page from Reagan’s Iron Curtain playbook.
 
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Odd that I’m watching Pundits say we need to do what Trump tried to do but was excoriated for. That would be establish permanent NATO bases in old Warsaw Pact countries and away from our old Western Europe bases.
 
I don't KNOW that the article is accurate. But IF there is a risk of the dollar losing its status, that is a huge risk. People can buy US debt knowing the dollar is safe. That goes away if countries start trading in bitcoin. So it might be more of a last resort IF that is a real risk. I'm not an economist so I'm claiming no knowledge if it is a real risk or if it would be as bad as some make it sound.

That seems like a stupid reason. What other currency are people going to head to? The Yen maybe. Certainly not the Euro.

The USD is already getting massive inflows.
 
This twitter account has some good info. No idea on the accuracy, but he's getting retweeted by some intel guys.





 
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