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One conservative’s argument for a Harris vote

Prior to the 2020 election, it was all bare knuckle politics. But Trump's post-election conduct and the ransacking of the Capitol he promoted was the deal breaker. No going back after that. The stealing of state secrets was the icing on the cake.
I don’t like any of that either. Trump is no good. Sadly we have two Americas and it is what it is.
 
Prior to the 2020 election, it was all bare knuckle politics. But Trump's post-election conduct and the ransacking of the Capitol he promoted was the deal breaker. No going back after that. The stealing of state secrets was the icing on the cake.
His post-election conduct will again be fascist-like. He’ll declare victory on Election Night, before the polls have closed in many locations and days before the winner is actually determined. Baseless allegations of voter fraud, advanced by both him personally and his surrogates, will begin before Election Day. That will be just the beginning of a blizzard of lies. Don the Con’s Post-Election Shitshow - Part 2.
 
His post-election conduct will again be fascist-like. He’ll declare victory on Election Night, before the polls have closed in many locations and days before the winner is actually determined. Baseless allegations of voter fraud, advanced by both him personally and his surrogates, will begin before Election Day. That will be just the beginning of a blizzard of lies. Don the Con’s Post-Election Shitshow - Part 2.
And then if he wins, he won't backtrack. He'll say the fraud was real and they overcame it. His followers will demand prosecution of the fraudsters.
 
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Kamala Harris really offers almost nothing in terms of policy priorities for disaffected Republicans.
The only thing she offers is that she's not Trump.

What happens if Kamala would get the House and Senate?
That is what concerns me. I don't know why so many Rs that are not voting for Trump are so sure that the Rs will win the senate and/or the house. They were suppose to win big the last election. Have the forgotten what happened?
 
If the authentic Kamala is the moderate Kamala, why did she not vote that way in the Senate?
Exactly, if Trump all of a sudden started being a nice person would you believe that's really who he is? I sure wouldn't because he has a hstory and it doesn't jive with the new personality.
 
The only thing she offers is that she's not Trump.


That is what concerns me. I don't know why so many Rs that are not voting for Trump are so sure that the Rs will win the senate and/or the house. They were suppose to win big the last election. Have the forgotten what happened?

I’m voting Republican for House and Senate, despite (a) not voting for Trump, and (b) not being a huge fan of Jim Banks.

But I’m hoping for divided government, whoever wins the presidential race.
 
Exactly, if Trump all of a sudden started being a nice person would you believe that's really who he is? I sure wouldn't because he has a hstory and it doesn't jive with the new personality.

Past record (as Massachusetts governor) was a problem for Romney, too.

I remember thinking “Well of course he ran to the left to become governor of a blue state. But it’s a perfectly fair question of his core values.”
 
That's not the only difference. Governments can refinance their debt in perpetuity. Individuals can't. Eventually you die, and your debt comes out of your estate. Governments can just keep borrowing.

Here ya go. F it let’s see. Gov efficiency
 
That is what concerns me. I don't know why so many Rs that are not voting for Trump are so sure that the Rs will win the senate and/or the house. They were suppose to win big the last election. Have the forgotten what happened?

I think there is a belief that several R candidates (Lake excluded) are not as crazy or polarizing as Trump, so that even if you are a Liz Cheney Never Trumper-type, you still may vote R for Senate and House.

But, I agree with you that it is risky and seems unlikely that they will go different directions (Executive vs. Legislative).
 
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Someone else who was great at efficiency, Stockton Rush. He didn't let things get in his way, a doer and not a talker.
Few examples. We have a product that would be good for the military. There’s no way to describe how overly cumbersome the process is to sell to the gov. Marv falls on his way to the dog park. Disabled. You’re looking at 3 years to get a check from social security. Harris just let in ten million immigrants. There’s also a massive backlog already. How on earth are they going to adjudicate those claims. On and on. Maybe Musk isn’t the guy but hell if he thinks he is let’s hear the ideas. Why wouldn’t we want to hear them?

We long lament our brightest don’t go to gov. Well now we have someone interested
 
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They worked it out and even died in the same day. It happened to be July 4th.
But they were rational people back then, There's not any today. You only have to go back to Reagan's presidency to see some rational people. Reagan and Tip O'Neill were political opposites but they could make a deal.

I don't think it's realistic to say in an election between two people you can make the case for one without comparing them to their opponent.
That is true but when your whole arguement is that you aren't the other candidate then that is a very weak argument to me.
 
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A conservative’s case for a write-in vote:

The turn off is stood up to maga. I stopped there. That opens the door for a progressive. I’m not okay with that.

The other thing these people need to come to terms with is maga isn’t going anywhere. It represents a platform that is different from the war machine etc. so the party either needs to come together or just split. But again it’ll be almost 30 years since the old guard won by next election. What they sell people aren’t buying
 
The turn off is stood up to maga. I stopped there. That opens the door for a progressive. I’m not okay with that.

The other thing these people need to come to terms with is maga isn’t going anywhere. It represents a platform that is different from the war machine etc. so the party either needs to come together or just split. But again it’ll be almost 30 years since the old guard won by next election. What they sell people aren’t buying
If you read it you’d see that he agrees that MAGA isn’t going away with a Trump loss.
 
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They don't? If you were dependent on Medicare for your healthcare, massive cuts might make a huge difference to you? If you depended on TANF?
I would argue that this is not a strength of those programs. It's a weakness. People are directed to arrange their lives and/or future lives around the promised benefit structure -- of programs that are fiscally unsustainable. That's not really the case with TANF. But it very clearly is the case with Medicare -- and Social Security.

And a big part of their selling point is that they're guaranteed. People can count on them being there. And, yet, here we are about 10 or so years away from the exhaustion of the Social Security Trust Fund and lawmakers haven't done a single thing to ensure the funding of benefits after that happens.

To the best of their ability, nobody should plan their lives/futures around any public entitlement programs. The people who run them are wholly irresponsible. If these were private programs, the fiduciaries would likely be in prison.
 
What they sell people aren’t buying

It's because what they sell, they weren't delivering.

That's the problem. That's why MAGA exists. People were buying it -- they just weren't getting what they bought. And I think that Trump noticed this and capitalized on it. There was a huge disconnect between Republican voters and Republican politicians.

Again, this is not just my opinion. Some of the most notable Never Trumpers (like Stuart Stevens) have bluntly said that they would make empty promises to voters just to win elections. Here's Mac Stipanovich (former Florida GOP operative, and stalwart Never Trumper) saying it:

Screenshot-2024-10-18-161437.png


Until and unless OG Republicans come to grips with this and clean up the mess they created, MAGA will continue dominating the Republican Party. But, to date, they have steadfastly refused to do that. Maybe they will once Trump himself is in the rearview mirror.
 
Nor should it. MAGA is policy, not personality. It’s personality for never Trumpers because they have no convincing policy argument.
MAGA has some policies, some OK and some not OK (isolationism, anti-NATO, etc.), but it's also a culture. The culture is toxic and unsustainable.
 
MAGA has some policies, some OK and some not OK (isolationism, anti-NATO, etc.), but it's also a culture. The culture is toxic and unsustainable.

I'll give you one thought on a way that OG Republicans could've started to address this, but didn't:

The Lankford bill in the Senate.

Now, a lot of people were angry at Lankford for simply sitting down with Democrats to hammer out a bipartisan bill. I didn't have any issue with it at all. At the end of the day, border policy is probably going to need to get bipartisan support if they're ever going to get their arms around it.

But here's the thing: the Democrats are on their heels on this issue right now. And they know it. Anybody who follows the issue knows it. When that's the broader political context of something and they're looking for a way out of it, you don't need to make many compromises to get them on board. Maybe a few little things, just so they can sell it to their base. But, on the big things, you've got them.

So why did Lankford agree to the thresholds? Either he's weak and stupid...or else he generally agrees with them. Either way, it was a big missed opportunity to start getting the Republican establishment back in the good graces of its voters.

I'll give you a hypothetical analogy. Let's say Republican lawmakers wanted to craft a bipartisan abortion bill with Democrats. We all know that, in most places, abortion is a strength of Democrats and a vulnerability for Republicans. Do you think Democrats would be open to making some big concession to Republicans on the issue, in order to help them politically with an issue that is giving them problems in elections?

I don't. If I was the Democrats, I'd say....here's the bill, if you want to sign on, this is what you sign on to. We can give you a couple little things to help you save face, but you're not getting anything big.

If Sen. Lankford had taken a similar approach with border security, it would've done wonders for the Republican establishment and their MAGA problem. Maybe the Democrats would've refused to take part. But, if so, that's on them -- because they'd be choosing to stay mired in a terrible place with the electorate on a top issue facing the country.
 
MAGA has some policies, some OK and some not OK (isolationism, anti-NATO, etc.), but it's also a culture. The culture is toxic and unsustainable.
It’s largely a cult of personality. That’s why post 343 is ridiculously stupid.

And, to your point…

Trump is “cultural heroin.” -JD Vance
 
This is so damn stupid. Just fcking vote for Harris. Quit the damn games and fcking vote for Harris.

The issue about crossover votes is noise. It gets magnified in the media -- because, naturally, they're hoping to find as many votes as they can that go in Harris' column, come off of Trump's column, or (ideally) both.

But we have actual data from two prior national elections where Trump was a candidate. In those elections, there was the same noise about prominent Republicans voting for the Democrat. So what did the data show? Did this convince lots of self-identified Republicans to vote Democrat?

No. In 2020, Biden got 6% of the Republican vote. That was merely 1% higher than the 5% of the Democratic vote that Trump got.

Learn to spot the noise and tune it out.
 
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