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Just saw my first 2018 Senate Primary ad

TheOriginalHappyGoat

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Oct 4, 2010
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Mike Braun.

"President Trump was right - we need more outsiders in Congress..." and then "conservative Republican" blah blah blah.

In states like Indiana, I think this primary campaign is going to be very interesting.
 
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Interesting that he is willing to put his lot with Trump with his approval ratings falling.

btw he doesnt see the irony in wanting 'outsiders' when they want to build a wall. 'Outside' but not too 'outside' ;) -- basically one of our own.
 
Mike Braun.

"President Trump was right - we need more outsiders in Congress..." and then "conservative Republican" blah blah blah.

In states like Indiana, I think this primary campaign is going to be very interesting.
Braun was up on TV 2 months ago. Back up now. He's been up on radio statewide for 6 weeks - 2 ads - and is funding it almost entirely out of his own pocket.
 
Interesting that he is willing to put his lot with Trump with his approval ratings falling.

btw he doesnt see the irony in wanting 'outsiders' when they want to build a wall. 'Outside' but not too 'outside' ;) -- basically one of our own.

Maybe he’ll even go all mavericky
 
It's Indiana

I haven't looked into Braun's positions, but I'm optimistic on Donnelly being able to use the Healthcare vote and tax bill against Messer & Rokita. Plus the primary will dig up more dirt on all those candidates.

Probably is going to depend on how the Indy Suburbs vote (and the "Lugar Republicans").
 
I haven't looked into Braun's positions, but I'm optimistic on Donnelly being able to use the Healthcare vote and tax bill against Messer & Rokita. Plus the primary will dig up more dirt on all those candidates.

Probably is going to depend on how the Indy Suburbs vote (and the "Lugar Republicans").
I think Indiana will a bellwether state. If Donnelly can hold his seat, it means it will be a good night for the Dems.
 
I haven't looked into Braun's positions, but I'm optimistic on Donnelly being able to use the Healthcare vote and tax bill against Messer & Rokita. Plus the primary will dig up more dirt on all those candidates.

Probably is going to depend on how the Indy Suburbs vote (and the "Lugar Republicans").

Do you think those two issues are unpopular in a midterm general election held statewide in Indiana?
 
Do you think those two issues are unpopular in a midterm general election held statewide in Indiana?

Absolutely, given how badly they've polled nationally and in the polling in states more Republican-leaning than Indiana.
 
Absolutely, given how badly they've polled nationally and in the polling in states more Republican-leaning than Indiana.
We're in uncharted territory here. Harry Enten at 538 pointed out this week that this is the least popular tax bill in recent history (going back to at least Reagan). Note that I didn't say least popular tax cut. Least popular tax bill. That is, this bill is even less popular than the tax hikes under Bush I and Clinton.

I haven't seen any state level polls on this bill published, but whatever the support in Indiana is, it's unlikely the GOP is going to have much ammunition to increase it. The primary driving function of this bill is the corporate rate cut. While I support that change in principle, politically it just doesn't play well, especially on its own. The general consensus among both people who studied the bill and the general public is that most of the individual benefits will go to the wealthy. Obviously, any time you have across-the-board cuts, the wealthy will get most of the benefits, since they pay most of the taxes. But paired with a corporate tax cut, that is yet another political problem. Republicans seem to be counting on workers coming around over the course of the year when they see their paychecks increasing. But I'm not sure that's going to happen. Middle class families are told to expect tax savings of $450/year. Well, that amounts to $17 on every bi-weekly paycheck. That's probably not enough to get people who already view the bill negatively to change their mind.

Donnelly has long been considered a good GOP target, obviously, but his approval ratings are still well above water. If he can walk a fine line between an anti-Trump message for the base and an anti-corporatist message for the moderates and disillusioned GOP working class whites (and I realize that is probably a very fine line), he has a shot.
 
I haven't looked into Braun's positions, but I'm optimistic on Donnelly being able to use the Healthcare vote and tax bill against Messer & Rokita. Plus the primary will dig up more dirt on all those candidates.

Probably is going to depend on how the Indy Suburbs vote (and the "Lugar Republicans").

This "Lugar Republican" will be voting for Donnelly. I fully expect the GOP primary voters will elevate the worst option...Rokita...who has gone all-in on Trump-love.
 
This "Lugar Republican" will be voting for Donnelly. I fully expect the GOP primary voters will elevate the worst option...Rokita...who has gone all-in on Trump-love.
I feel like Donnelly is the perfect Democratic candidate for the Trump era, much like Manchin in WV. He's palatable to moderates on both sides. Exactly the kind of guy we need to remind voters that not every Democrat is a Pelosi or a Schumer.
 
Absolutely, given how badly they've polled nationally and in the polling in states more Republican-leaning than Indiana.
The Indiana 2018 Senate election will be held next November in Indiana. Tell me about an honest Indiana poll on those issues and then we'll watch closely to see how it holds up over 11 months. What pollster did you identify in November 2016 who had Trump being elected 11 months out? 11 days out? 11 minutes out?
 
The Indiana 2018 Senate election will be held next November in Indiana. Tell me about an honest Indiana poll on those issues and then we'll watch closely to see how it holds up over 11 months. What pollster did you identify in November 2016 who had Trump being elected 11 months out? 11 days out? 11 minutes out?

What’s an “honest poll”? One you agree with? What’s the criteria?
 
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